The last time Ole Miss played an Egg Bowl with the possibility of its head coach leaving for another school was in 1998 when a current United States senator from Alabama (who lives in Florida) led the Rebels
to doom on his way to Auburn.
The Tommy Tuberville era at Ole Miss ended with a 28-6 loss and sent the Rebels to the first of 17 (give or take) Independence Bowl appearances under the direction of new head coach David Cutcliffe. I would be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge Cutcliffe is in the Independence Bowl Hall of Fame, which is 12 chef kisses out of 10 chef kisses.
Here we are 27 years later with another Ole Miss coach who may be gone within 48 hours of whatever happens in the Egg Bowl. Only this time, the stakes for Ole Miss are a smidge (SMIDGE; SMIDGE) higher.
Win and Ole Miss finishes the season 11-1 and hosts a first-round college football playoff game in a few weeks. Lose and they finish 10-2, likely with a handful of other teams, and leave themselves open to the whims of a playoff committee bound by no rules and repercussions for doing stupid things. Like, say, leaving Ole Miss out because Lane Kiffin won’t be the head coach in a playoff game if he chooses to leave.
The best way to avoid leaving the direction of your postseason up to a committee with no standards is to bury a team you should bury. Whatever direction Kiffin is leaning, none of that changes what the Ole Miss team can accomplish on Friday and beyond.
What we know
Drama!
As I wrote this, I realized that “We know drama” was a TNT campaign from years ago to convince you to watch whatever serials they had going on, plus Con Air, The Rock, and so forth. But it works here too, though there is 100 percent less Nic Cage in this post.
By my surface-level count, here are things tied into the outcome of Friday’s game:
- 11-1 season for Ole Miss and hosting a college football playoff game
- 10-2 season for Ole Miss and let’s see what happens
- 6-6 season for Mississippi State and their first bowl game since the 2022 season
- 5-7 season for Mississippi State and not great times for Jeff Lebby
- An Ole Miss win possibly leads Kiffin to stay at Ole Miss
- Kiffin staying at Ole Miss takes the coaching carousel down a totally different direction than expected
- An Ole Miss loss means Kiffin will be on the receiving end of weapons-grade hatred from Ole Miss fans
- An Ole Miss loss also means there’s a zero percent chance Kiffin stays at Ole Miss
- Kiffin leaving Ole Miss finally sets the coaching carousel in a more expected direction
- An Ole Miss win potentially leads Kiffin to go to legal war with Ole Miss to allow him to coach any playoff games (assuming chooses to leave)
We could have 10 sub-bullets for each of those bullets, but you get the idea. The outcome of Friday’s game will involve much more than the standard taunting and parading of a trophy for a year.
Dogs!
I’ve written about it repeatedly this year, but the Ole Miss defense has been perfectly fine against middling to bad offenses. They did more than enough to win against LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Florida, which are all not great.
Were there a few bumps at times? YOU BET, but they lived to tell the tale.
The Mississippi State offense checks in at 37th in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, which, for context, is 6 spots ahead of Oklahoma. Parker Fleming’s numbers have them at 58th, which is 4 spots ahead of LSU.
The point being, they’ll make some plays, but their offense is not consistent over 60 minutes. And if State is forced into a pass-heavy game, they’re in trouble.
On the other side of the ball, State is 79th in defense SP+ (Ole Miss is 20th), with a super not great (111th) run defense success rate. That matters because Ole Miss is 20th in rushing success rate.
If Ole Miss plays cleanly, Mississippi State doesn’t have the offensive firepower or defensive talent to hang around. But, as we all know in Egg Bowls, that’s a big ol’ IF.
Deadlines!
Last Friday, after a meeting involving athletic director Keith Carter, chancellor Glenn Boyce, and Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss released a statement saying an announcement about Kiffin’s future was “expected” on Saturday after the Egg Bowl.
Was that Ole Miss putting him on the clock and saying they have to know something ASAP? Was that Ole Miss saying he’ll let the fans know what he’s doing after the Egg Bowl? Was that everyone stalling because they’re still talking through things?
Maybe!
Whatever the reason for the statement, Saturday is allegedly going to be decision day. HOWEVAH, there is a scenario in which Ole Miss could make the SEC Championship Game.
If Texas beats Texas A&M Friday night, Ole Miss would need Auburn to upset Alabama on Saturday night, and the Rebels are going to Atlanta to play Georgia again. So, let’s say step one of that process happens Friday night.
Does Texas’ win give Kiffin cover to delay his announcement? Would he push it to Sunday after we see who wins in Auburn? And if it’s Auburn, does he get to push his decision even more now that Ole Miss would have a game in Atlanta in 6 days? Would Ole Miss demand to know before then?
I don’t know, but I hate all of this!
Whether it’s a final decision or pushed decision, Saturday will at least be the next step in this absurd process.
What we kinda know
Decisions!
After nearly 2 weeks of this mess, the main takeaway is no one knows anything with certainty. Even with Kiffin’s choices* indicating he will not be at Ole Miss in 2026, no one covering or involved in the drama (media or people involved with any school) is convinced he’s made his choice.
*Sending family members to Gainesville and Baton Rouge, among other things.
As of last night and this morning, the holding pattern of guesswork continues. And if Kiffin has made up his mind, the only someone he could’ve told is Juice because dogs don’t spill secrets.
All signs indicate Kiffin will be employed in either Oxford or Baton Rouge in 2026, but I wouldn’t rule out any scenario. Florida, Alabama, Texas, the Tennessee Titans, the New York Giants, or [insert additional NFL clown franchises]? Sure, why not!
What we don’t know
Developments!
Just like prior to the Florida game, Kiffin and players who did interviews continue to preach the 1-0 every week mantra. The unnecessary noise didn’t affect them in the Florida game, but this week, the noise is a different animal in terms of volume and intensity.
Are they ready to go from the jump on Friday? Is Kiffin right in that players in the free agency/NIL era aren’t bothered by things like this? Is Ole Miss who they’ve been all year in the biggest game in the modern era? How much of what happens on Friday influences Saturday and beyond?
We don’t know, and we hate not knowing!
