The Boston Celtics could use an upgrade at center. There is a 29 year old 3 time All Star center that could be available via trade. Which begs the question. Should the Celtics trade for Domantas Sabonis? The answer, as always, is complicated.
First let’s explore the rumor itself.
Carmichael Dave (Sacramento radio host) kicked off a whirlwind of rumors by indicating that the Sacramento Kings ownership is preparing for a “full-scale rebuild attempt.”
The easy joke here is that the Kings ownership group is several years too late on this realization, but that’s for another blog to sort out. The relevant information here is that one of the best centers in the league (by some measures) could be available on the trade market.
Since it always takes at least two teams to make a trade, we should always look at it from each team’s perspective.
What the Kings want
If Sacramento is going into a full rebuild mode, then they’ll be prioritizing draft picks and young talent. They will also likely be targeting expiring contracts or trade exceptions to dump salaries. Conversely, they might be willing to take on someone else’s bad contracts at the cost of more draft picks. Generally the textbook tanking blueprint.
Sabonis, LaVine, and DeRozan combine for roughly $115M on the cap this year. LaVine has a player option for next season (that he’s likely to pick up unless he can secure long term money this summer). DeRozan is on the books for next year as well. Sabonis makes $42.3M this year and is locked up for 2 more years.
What the Celtics want
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Boston could really use a strong starting center. Preferably one that would play well with the Jays and fits their timeline. Sabonis isn’t a perfect player, defense has never been his strong suit but he works hard at it and uses his physicality to impact the game on that side. The strengths are pretty obvious. He’s an elite passer for a big man (something he picked up from his old man) and he’s an effective scorer. He’s also a beast on the boards and is one of the best screen setters in the league. Last season he finished with 19.1 points, 13.9 rebounds, and 6 assists per game.
The Celtics would likely have to adjust their style of play to maximize Sabonis on the court, but I think that’s a challenge that Mazzulla would welcome. It would also allow Neemias Queta to slot into a more natural backup center spot.
What would it cost?
Since Sabonis makes so much money, it makes sense to start with stacking up the salaries necessary to make a trade that follows the CBA rules. Important note here: If the Celtics hadn’t shed enough salary to get under the 2nd apron this summer, trades like this wouldn’t even be possible because they wouldn’t be able to stack salaries.
Just about any trade would likely start with Anfernee Simons and his expiring $27.7M contract. You could add in Sam Hauser’s $10M contract to get you to $37.7M but that’s still $4.6M short of a viable trade. The Celtics don’t actually have a lot of mid-range salaries, so you either have to make some difficult decisions or stack a ton of names (which is always tricky in-season because the other team can’t go over the max number of players on their roster). You can get really close by adding Luka Garza and Jordan Walsh, but it still doesn’t pass the Spotrac trade machine test. Feel free to play with the model here and get the right combination of near minimum guys swapping back and forth to make the numbers work. Note that you could always find a 3rd team to take a flyer on a player (perhaps in exchange for a 2nd round pick) to make the salaries work out.
A final accounting note: The Celtics also have 3 trade exceptions. Sabonis doesn’t fit into any of them, but you could get creative by taking back other players to make things line up.
What the Kings will really be looking for, however, is the picks. Hauser could be flipped for a 1st rounder (he’s a perfect fit on a contender). Simons hasn’t generated a lot of interest around the league, but the Kings could flip his contract to another team looking to dump a bad salary on them (for a future 1st). The younger players the Celtics would be throwing in would be good for a flyer, but not equivalent to 1st round pick value (unless you want to include Hugo?).
As I outlined here, the Celtics have most of their own first rounders for the next several years. All Star centers don’t get traded very often, so you would have to assume there would be multiple teams interested, despite the large salary. I would expect the Kings to get offers for at least 3 first rounders and perhaps swaps on top of that. Not all 1st rounders are valued equally and the beyond this year the Celtics probably wouldn’t be expected to be in the lottery any time soon.
Another note, which I don’t like but have to at least acknowledge, is the potential to include Derrick White in a deal. Given his talents, salary, and plug-and-play fit on any team, I would imagine that he’d be worth several draft picks himself (think Mikal Bridges). Again, that makes the salary matching a challenge, but you get very close with a Simons and White for Sabonis and Schroder deal. The teams could include a 3rd team (perhaps to take White in exchange for several picks going to Sacramento).
Deal or no deal?
I really like Sabonis and his game in theory. I am not entirely sure he makes perfect sense with Tatum and Brown, and if it costs us Derrick White I’m less excited about it. For me the deciding point is simply roster construction. I don’t think that you can build out a great roster with 3 players making max or near max salaries. You have to absolutely nail all the fringes to make it work and there’s no room for error at all. I think I’d pass on the bidding here and focus our efforts on a rotation of bigs that would fit well with the Jays at a much lower price point. Or perhaps said another way, rather than spending $40M+ on Sabonis, I’d rather split that money between guys at a similar level to Jrue Holiday and Al Horford.
But that’s just me. What are your thoughts?
