The weight of expectations is now a burden the Seattle Mariners must carry with them this year. To rise so high last season, only to be let down in the end, five outs away from the franchise’s first World Series appearance. To stand so close to unknown territory, only to be turned away, produces the desire to find the way back to that precipice. As the weather warms and the days grow longer, the bitterness of a cold, autumn defeat is replaced by the spring hope of a new season. We’ve tasted greatness.
Now we want the whole meal.
The Mariners look like one of the most complete teams in the American League. There’s star power in the form of Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh, both projected to be the best in baseball at their respective positions. The team made the right win-now moves to bolster the lineup, re-signing Josh Naylor and trading for Brendan Donovan. The pitching staff remains a strength. There’s a gaggle of young prospects pushing to make an impact in the big leagues sooner rather than later. Seattle is looking to defend a division title for the fourth time in franchise history and earn a postseason berth in consecutive seasons for just the second time ever. The expectations for this team haven’t been this high since the turn of the century. We’ve been burned by high expectations before, but this team is built to deliver, and anything less than a World Series appearance should be seen as a disappointment. Go M’s.
Welcome to another year of series previews. If you’re a regular Lookout Landing reader, welcome back. If you’re a new face, welcome home. This will be my 12th year writing these previews. Above, you’ll see a brief overview of the upcoming series: probable pitchers, game times, and a rundown of the Mariners and their opponents. Below, you’ll see the Mariners’ opponents laid out in more detail: projected lineups, key players, and starting pitcher analysis. Finally, you’ll get a view of the big picture: AL West and Wild Card standings. As always, I appreciate your feedback and hope that these features continue to be helpful and educational throughout the season.
The Guardians know a thing or two about surpassing expectations. Last year, they surprised everyone by winning the AL Central for the second consecutive season and the sixth time in the last decade. It took a historic collapse from the Tigers and a furious hot streak in September to get there, but the team blew past their projections. The team exceeded their pythagorean record by eight wins and their BaseRuns record by 11, and counting on that kind of overperformance again in 2026 wouldn’t be a great bet.
Of course, Cleveland didn’t go out and make a bunch of moves to capitalize on their division title this offseason. They did sign José Ramírez to a new seven-year contract extension that should keep him in Cleveland for the rest of his career. Everything else was focused on the fringes of their roster; they signed Rhys Hoskins to DH and cover 1B as the short side of a platoon and brought in a bunch of new relievers to help a bullpen that’s still reeling from Emmanuel Clase’s gambling scandal. The Guardians are hoping for breakouts from young guys like Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter to fuel some real improvements to the team’s talent level. This is a pretty young roster and there’s certainly room to grow, but the projections aren’t buying it. FanGraphs is projecting 76 wins and a fourth place finish in the AL Central. Still, don’t underestimate this team.
This lineup runs through Ramírez. He’s a perennial MVP candidate and has already booked a place in the Hall of Fame when he decides to hang up the cleats. Last year was a “down” season for him and I put scare quotes there because down for him means a 133 wRC+ and just 6.3 fWAR. His power output was a little lower than normal due to a slight dip in contact quality, though he still managed to muscle out 30 home runs. Manzardo and DeLauter are the youngsters who have the pedigree to become middle-of-the-order compliments to Ramírez. The left-handed first baseman had an up-and-down season last year but managed to make some real improvements to his plate approach during the second half of the season. DeLauter has been a top prospect in Cleveland’s farm system since being drafted in the first round in 2022 but injuries have really derailed his development pathway. He’s plenty talented at the plate but doesn’t field particularly well. The Guardians actually had him make his debut in center field in the playoffs last year, but he’ll shift to an outfield corner as his regular home. To accommodate DeLauter, Steven Kwan has shifted to the middle of the outfield after winning Gold Gloves in left field in each of his first four seasons in the big leagues. While Kwan’s defensive acumen will be put to the test in center, his bat definitely needs to rebound if the Guardians want a shot at defending their division title. He’s oscillated between very good years at the plate and merely average years and a lot of that has to do with the capriciousness of an approach that is so contact oriented.
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Bibee took a pretty significant step backwards last year. He managed to make 31 starts, but his strikeout rate dropped by five points, and his ERA and FIP jumped up nearly a full run. His fastball has never really been a standout pitch for him but it was hit extremely hard last year. A mechanical issue led to less ride on the pitch and batters really keyed in on that pitch. Thankfully, the rest of his secondary pitches didn’t lose much effectiveness and all the underlying data looked good. His changeup and sweeper, in particular, have been fantastic pitches, but his repertoire is deep enough, he can keep batters off balance in any count. The key, then, is figuring out his mechanics to regain the ride on his four-seam fastball.
Gavin Williams ended last season on an extremely lucky run. From June through the end of the season, his BABIP allowed was just .221 which led to a 2.50 ERA that far outpaced his 4.27 FIP. Most of his underlying peripherals stayed pretty stable through the season, but a ton of good batted ball luck allowed him to be a key piece of the Guardians’ playoff run in September. He added a sweeper to his pitch mix last year and it returned a 44.0% whiff rate. That gives him two excellent breaking balls to attack batters with alongside a hard fastball. The issue is his command. His walk rate is well below average and it’s pretty shocking he was able to get away with all those baserunners without giving up a ton more runs.
Joey Cantillo spent last year split between the bullpen and the rotation. Once he made the move to starting in July, things really took off for him; he posted a 2.96 ERA and a 3.21 FIP across 13 starts down the stretch. His calling card is a phenomenal changeup that produced a 49.4% whiff rate last year! His two breaking balls are okay too — his curveball is the better of the two but he was testing a new grip on his slider this spring to hopefully increase that pitch’s effectiveness. His command is his weakness, though his walk rate improved slightly after joining the rotation last year. With a role in the rotation secured to start this season, he’s well positioned to take a big step forward if he can get his errant command under control.
Slade Cecconi came to the Guardians last offseason in the December 2024 trade that sent Josh Naylor to Arizona. He had a decent year in Cleveland, managing to stick in the rotation for the entire year after spending the first two years of his career as a swingman in Arizona’s bullpen. He doesn’t have outstanding stuff and won’t overpower batters, but he does have excellent command and a deep repertoire to keep batters off balance. His two breaking balls are his best pitches and he added a cutter and sinker to his arsenal last year. His fastball is pretty lackluster and that’s where his whole approach breaks down. If he’s not keeping batters honest with his secondary pitches, they can key in on his heater and do some real damage.
