With only a couple of weeks remaining in spring training, I think it’s time we revisit how we did with our predictions from the end of October.
If you were one of the participants who included your predictions, here is a quick link to help you find them! Like last year, this is a pass/fail exercise. No half points, I either got it or I didn’t. With that being said lets
take a look!
1. The Cardinals will trade a position player for pitching depth
The Cardinals traded Willson Contreras for Hunter Dobbins, Yhoiker Fajardo, and Blake Aita in December. The presence of Dobbins in this deal as MLB-ready pushes this into the correct column for me! Fitts was acquired for Gray, so it didn’t fit the criteria. Martinez for Arenado and Cintje for Donovan also aren’t MLB-ready, so they don’t fit the criteria either.
I speculated at the time that trading Gorman made the most sense and that I would not be a fan of the Cardinals moving Donovan. If the offers weren’t there for Gorman, I understand. I still am highly skeptical that Gorman will reach his ceiling as a player, and even if he winds up having a breakout year, the Cardinals should still look to cash in on him. The Tyler O’Neill path and why playing out a volatile power over hit profile with an injury history is why you don’t invest in that long term.
The Donovan situation, I changed my tune somewhat because the context of the team has changed more than I anticipated. I didn’t expect Contreras to waive his NTC, but after Gray waived his, Contreras admitted that the writing was on the wall and was more amicable to a swap than previously indicated. If Donovan was traded for just Cintje and Peete, I would’ve been underwhelmed, and that’s the exact type of deal that the previous regime would’ve accepted. But Bloom gaining TWO additional comp picks and an additional outfield prospect out of the deal really changes the equation. The Cardinals now have a serious war chest when it comes to the draft this year, and we will talk to Joe Doyle at the end of March to get a real lay of the land for the upcoming draft in July.
I’m 1-1 so far! Nice.
2. The Cardinals will sign a veteran starter for the rotation.
Also in December, the Cardinals signed Dustin “Don’t call me Gingergaard” May. (sorry Dustin.) Thus fulfilling my expectation that they would bring in a veteran bounce-back candidate who they could flip at the deadline. I speculated that perhaps German Marquez, previously of the Colorado Rockies, would be an option, but the Cardinals shot MUCH higher than I anticipated again. This spring, May has regained body weight, which has allowed him to reach the high 90’s with his fastball once more. This is a big deal when it comes to the upside potential of the asset. The adage of Mass = Gas rings true, and the Cardinals look to be the beneficiaries of that decision very early.
With a young stable of pitchers set to highlight the rotation between Liberatore, McGreevy, Fitts, and potentially Leahy. The Cardinals’ pitchers will benefit from a veteran sounding board who has experienced his fair share of ups and downs and can speak to a multitude of challenges that the young pitchers will face. Analytically, that provides no value, but real-world context, having that support 1000% matters on a big league staff.
2-2 and I’ve matched how many I guessed correctly from a year ago!
3. This will be the 2nd offseason in a row that no player receives an extension
This one I’m tempting the baseball gods with, and if Masyn Winn, who I think would be the MOST likely candidate the Cardinals would approach about an extension, signs one between now and opening day, you’re welcome, St. Louis. But, to this point, and we’re over halfway through Spring Training, the Cardinals have not handed out an extension to any of their players, and that is a stance I expect the Cardinals to hold, for now. I remain convinced, based on the declining revenue streams between both TV and attendance, coupled with an impending CBA negotiation that could alter the financial landscape of MLB, that the Cardinals want to wait to see what the circumstances are before they decide how to distribute cash flow for future seasons.
Temporarily, I’ll call myself 3-3, and I’ll be happy about being more right than last year!
4. The Cardinals will FINALLY trade Nolan Arenado
At the end of the season, it felt like the process had truly run its course, and I think giving a new regime a stab at the chance to do what needed to be done for over a year was going to lead to a deal finally being executed. Lo and behold, that also came true, and not only that, MULTIPLE teams engaged the Cardinals seriously for Arenado, ultimately leading to a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks and credit to Cardinals ownership in all of the veteran NTC trades, including cash to make the return more palatable.
The Cardinals received Jack Martinez in return, and while a healthy amount of this fanbase was skeptical at best that a deal would even get done, the Cardinals also managed to get a piece that could contribute in a couple of seasons. I am cautiously curious if this could wind up looking very similar to the Paul Dejong deal. I think fans would be thrilled if Martinez winds up being what Matt Svanson was a year ago for St. Louis.
4-4, and I have to be a candidate for player of the week after this performance!
5. The Cardinals will start the 2026 season with the lowest payroll in the NL Central
Let me be clear, this is a crown of thorns that Mr. DeWitt and the ownership group have the misfortune of wearing this season. Nobody is happy about this fact, not even them. They also have nobody to blame BUT themselves for the position the team is in coming into the 2026 season. Again, they deserve credit for green-lighting the pathway that included spending significant money to buy prospects for their aging core veteran players, the deserve credit for investing in tech and infrastructural resources that the Cardinals DESPERATELY needed to put themselves back amongst the modern franchises that utilize every avenue to be the best they possibly can. For those reasons, I am optimistic about the future of the St. Louis Cardinals.
According to FanGraphs, these are the opening day projected payrolls for the NL Central:
CHC: 231 Million
MIL: 129 Million
CIN: 126 Million
PIT: 105 Million
STL: 99 Million
Financial investment into the roster is not a be-all end-all, but Cardinals fans have come to expect a certain level of investment based on the precedent established by the DeWitt-led ownership group’s own actions over the previous 30 years. That’s my entire lifetime. This is a unique season that I’ve never experienced in my growing time as a St. Louis Cardinals fan. That deserves the caveat of praise, given that other franchises envied that level of stability and support. The Cardinals prioritized the wrong things after the 2020 COVID-shortened season, which set off a chain reaction to where they are. They held on too long, they put band aids over bullet holes, they stopped leaning into who they were as an organization in the name of periphery contention, drafting and developing took a back seat to throw an extra 10 million at the Lance Lynns and Kyle Gibsons of the world.
The first step in solving a problem is identifying and admitting that you have one. The Cardinals have done that and now are taking their medicine for it. 2026 likely won’t be to the level of expectation of most Cardinals fans. Most readers on this site understand that and are excited to watch other areas of the organization grow. The general Cardinals fan who likely doesn’t traffic this site often will not be happy with 2026, and the talking points that surround the team will likely reflect that.
Unless there is an extension signed during spring or the Cardinals hand out an 8 million dollar contract in the next two weeks, I will have a clean sweep on my predictions for the offseason! Take that, HATERS! Jake knows ball.
Officially turning the page on one of the most active and course-correcting offseasons in a long time for Cardinals fans, we can simultaneously say we’re excited about the future, but the team is not where we want it to be, and those sentiments are consistently echoed by President of Baseball Ops Chaim Bloom. The Cardinals will experience ANOTHER influx of young talent over the next 6 months between trades and the draft that should have the Cardinals truly set up for the future. I, like many of you, am ready for the season to start and have baseball back on our TV’s/radios on a nightly basis.
-Thanks for reading
