Before the Kansas City Chiefs met the Denver Broncos in the NFL’s Week 11, every member of our Arrowhead Pride panel picked the Chiefs to win . For the second straight week — and the fourth time this season — every one of them guessed wrong, and our aggregate prediction for a 24-15 Kansas City win carried 24 points of error* compared to the 22-19 loss. Our readers were much less convinced. Almost one third picked Denver to win — most calling for a close game.
In Week 12, the Chiefs host the Indianapolis
Colts on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook , Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points.
Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
I’ll be honest: I have no idea how this game is going to go. I have no clue what to think about this team.
On one hand, I can see Kansas City rolling in this game. If the defense can get quarterback Daniel Jones to turn the ball over under pressure, it can force Indianapolis into a negative game script. I could see the offense bouncing back against a worse defense.
On the other hand, it wouldn’t shock me to see running back Jonathan Taylor run wild. I just saw Kansas City give up a bunch of rushing yards to James Cook. The Indianapolis running game is even better. I could see defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo taking parts of Denver’s game plan and frustrating the offense.
I’ve considered this carefully — and I really don’t have a great answer. I’m picking Kansas City only because it seems hard to believe they’ll lose three in a row. But to be honest, I need to see this game to decide where I’m at with the team over the rest of the season.
Chiefs 24, Colts 17
John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)
This is a tough one. I am not convinced the Chiefs are finished. Like tight end Travis Kelce, I still believe they have it within them to reach the postseason and make a run. But if that happens, it’s going to be even harder than we previously thought. With the way things now stand, the Indianapolis wide receiver group, Taylor and Anarumo are just going to be too much for the team to handle.
I also think another narrow loss will finally be enough to force the coaching staff to make the small changes necessary for Kansas City to pull off a 6-0 run and reach the postseason — and if there’s a rematch in January, I think the Chiefs can prevail.
Colts 23, Chiefs 20
Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)
Last week’s loss to Denver all but confirmed that Kansas City won’t repeat as AFC West champions — and delivered a serious blow to their playoff hopes. That makes this week’s matchup with the Colts feel like a playoff game in November. It’s a true must-win for the Chiefs against a tough, physical team.
Defensively, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has to find a way to slow Taylor down — and force Jones to beat Kansas City through the air. Offensively, the Chiefs must come out sharp against an Colts’ defense that has been one of the more consistent units in the league.
This is the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era that Kansas City has faced this level of adversity this early, and we’re about to learn a lot about what kind of team it is. If it doesn’t respond on Sunday, it may be time to hit the panic button.
But I believe the Chiefs will respond. While that might be optimistic, I’ll still lean into that feeling one more time.
Chiefs 27, Colts 20
Mark Gunnels (@MarkAGunnels)
This game trumps last week’s game in Denver as the biggest regular-season game in the Mahomes era.
If the Chiefs lose, they won’t be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but they would have zero room for error — and would probably need more help from others than we’d like.
The silver lining here is they’re playing at Arrowhead, where they only have one loss this season. Even in the four road losses, they’ve had opportunities to win each game, but untimely mistakes hurt them.
Considering the magnitude of this game — and it being at home — I think Kansas City finds a way. Jones has been turning the ball over at an alarming rate over the last few weeks.
Chiefs 27, Colts 23
Caleb James (@CJScoobs)
This game is do or die for the Chiefs — and fittingly, it is against an old foe.
Indianapolis thrives when it can pound the rock with Taylor, and Kansas City should expect them to come out and try the same formula. While the Chiefs have been solid against the run this season, this game will be critical.
Jones is among the league leaders in play-action passes and RPOs, using both to produce an efficient season. Despite that success, he has struggled over the last two weeks because teams have applied consistent pressure. So the Chiefs’ front seven will need to be stout against the run on early downs — taking away the threat of play-action passes and RPOs — setting up obvious passing situations on third down. Then Kansas City will need to heat up the Colts’ quarterback, forcing him into quick decisions.
Offensively, there’s no telling which version of the Chiefs will show up — but we can hope that head coach Andy Reid, Mahomes and Kelce will rally them.
Chiefs 24, Colts 17
Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)
This is the first time all year that I will be picking against Kansas City. The offense just feels out of sync and stale. I have zero doubt that Reid and Mahomes can figure things out and get things humming again. I just don’t know if it will be too little and too late.
The Colts are beatable. Offensively, they compare closely to the Detroit Lions — so I do think Kansas City’s defense can limit them if it can shut down Taylor.
But on offense, I think a different approach is needed. I know Mahomes is the best player of all time, but I don’t understand why the Chiefs want to make his job harder by letting opposing defenses know a pass is coming on every down. Until Kansas City admits it needs to run the ball, defenses will play the pass and limit its effectiveness.
Colts 21, Chiefs 20
Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)
It’s getting very late in the season. I do not have a lot of faith that the Chiefs will win this game. I do think, however, that eventually, the bubble will burst on Jones; the Colts can only get so far with him as their quarterback. But while Kansas City will benefit from its home crowd, Indianapolis will have definite advantages.
The Chiefs are coming off a very physical game in Denver, while the Colts are coming off the bye. I also worry that Mahomes’ longtime nemesis Anarumo — who is now calling Indianapolis’ defensive plays — will get Kansas City in his first opportunity to deploy cornerback Sauce Gardner and old friend Charvarius Ward together. I think the Chiefs’ struggling offense will have a hard time getting into the groove.
I do expect Spagnuolo’s defense to have a plan to stop Taylor and frustrate Jones. But given how badly it has faded in second halves against familiar defensive play-callers, I’m not sure Kansas City’s offense will do its part.
I don’t think the Chiefs are without hope. The Colts have taken advantage of a favorable schedule; they often look more vulnerable against quality opponents. But while this game can go either way, I’m predicting a major blow to Kansas City’s fading playoff hopes.
Colts 24, Chiefs 19
Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)
I’m fully aware of the many contradictions in this prediction. But that should be expected — because this Kansas City team doesn’t make sense.
The wide receivers are the best since Hill and Watkins — except when they aren’t. Mahomes has been brilliant through most of the season — except when a game has required heroics. The Chiefs have a positive turnover margin — they haven’t lost a fumble — but interceptions have cost them. Rookie defensive back Nohl Williams has been a revelation, but the team keeps rotating others into his spot. Running back Kareem Hunt has been unstoppable in short yardage, but his number doesn’t get called often enough to force respect.
I’ve repeatedly said matchups matter less than execution. Still, Kansas City has lost to nearly every good team it’s faced. So how can we predict anything?
It feels like the Colts have been fighting above their weight class, with a top-3 offense led by… Jones. They’ve won close games and blowouts, but have done it against a fairly easy schedule. Their best player is Taylor, who is coming off a 244-yard performance — but Kansas City continues to be strong against the run.
A week ago, the Chiefs lost a must-win game — and have dropped four other should-have-won contests this season. Their margin for error is gone. They likely need to win 6 of 7 to get into position for the postseason. If they lose this week, I’ll have a hard time believing they’ll win out. Still, I can’t write them off for at least one more weekend, so I’ll pick Kansas City — but I don’t feel awesome about it.
I tend to believe the Chiefs have what it takes. Now, they just need to put it together.
Chiefs 35, Colts 24
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 25-21.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 1 | Maurice Elston | 6 | 4 | 0.6000 | 24.2 |
| 2 | 2 | Jared Sapp | 6 | 4 | 0.6000 | 25.4 |
| 3 | 3 | Rocky Magaña | 5 | 5 | 0.5000 | 22.6 |
| 4 | 4 | Caleb James | 5 | 5 | 0.5000 | 24.6 |
| 5 | 5 | Mark Gunnels | 5 | 5 | 0.5000 | 26.0 |
| 6 | 6 | John Dixon | 5 | 5 | 0.5000 | 26.6 |
| 7 | 7 | Matt Stagner | 5 | 5 | 0.5000 | 29.2 |
| 8 | 8 | Nate Christensen | 4 | 6 | 0.4000 | 24.4 |
In Week 11, Nate Christensen’s prediction of a 20-14 Chiefs win was the least wrong of our panel’s prognostications, with 18 points of error. Rocky Magaña was right behind him with a 20-13 pick that missed by a total of 20 points.
*To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
