Following a wild 20-17 victory over Sac State last week, Nevada will continue its small home stand and host Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders are struggling in the early season, but after some sloppy football by the Pack in last week’s win, Jeff Choate & Co. can’t tread this lightly.
Middle Tennessee (0-2)(0-0) vs. Nevada (1-1)(0-0)
Location: Mackay Stadium
Date/Time:
Saturday, Sept. 13 at 2:00 p.m. PSTBroadcast: Nevada Sports Net/MW Network
Betting line: Nevada is favored by 9.5 points. The over/under
is 57.5.
History: This will be the first matchup between these two programs.
Keys to the game
- Take advantage of the Blue Raiders’ weak O-Line
One of the biggest weaknesses for Middle Tennessee has been its offensive line. The rush attack has struggled to get going, rushing for just 77 yards on 50 carries (1.5 average carry) in two games.
The Blue Raiders have collected 92 yards in losses on the ground, most of which came from the 10 sacks allowed so far. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato is 35-of-67 for 301 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, along with being sacked 10 times in two games. The offense has averaged just 12 points per game.
Nevada’s defense has been solid against the run in its two games against Penn State and Sac State, allowing 281 yards and five touchdowns on 77 carries (3.6 a carry.) Guys such as defensive lineman Dylan LaBarbera (14 tackles, 4.5 TFL) Austin Harnetiaux (13 tackles), Jonathan Maldonado (seven tackles, a half sack and an interception) and Stone Combs (13 tackles) have been all over early on.
- Attack a weak secondary
Both teams rank near the bottom in pass efficiency defense, but it gives Nevada’s offense the perfect chance to improve its passing game.
Quarterback Chubba Purdy is 19-of-36 for 241 yards with three interceptions and no touchdowns. He leads the rushing department with 170 yards and a touchdown on 35 carries, but an effective offense needs a QB who can pass the ball.
Middle Tennessee ranks 120 out of 136 FBS teams in pass efficiency defense, while Purdy ranks 105 out of 124 qualified passers in QB ratings this year. It’s a perfect matchup for both sides to find improvement against a weaker link, and hopefully, Purdy and Nevada’s offense can take the bigger end of the stick.
- Protect Purdy
Nevada’s offensive line performed well last week, yielding 269 rushing yards and no sacks. Middle Tennessee’s defensive line is one of its biggest strengths, led by Damonte Smith and Shakai Woods. Smith has four tackles for loss, a sack and an interception in two games.
The Blue Raiders’ defense has picked up 129 total tackles, two forced fumbles, one interception and three sacks. While the secondary may be weak, their talent up front isn’t something to shy away from. The linebacker room adds to that talent, with former walk-on Parker Hughes, Muaaz Byard and Brandon Buckner, who previously played at Oregon.
Purdy has shown plenty of ability to make his own plays, and while I discussed how nice his run ability is, he’ll need time in the pocket to make some passes. The Middle Tennessee defensive line won’t make that easy, but if Purdy can get it into the air cleanly, the chances of a good passing performance are high.
Prediction
Neither team has looked great in its first two games, but Nevada has shown a bit more promise. Middle Tennessee’s weaknesses should be easily capitalized on, and I do believe Nevada will do just that and get the win.
Give me 27-20 Nevada, pushing the Pack to 2-1.
