The Rockets might not be doomed after all. Now standing at 2-2 with just under 5% of the season played, the Rockets season might not be a lost cause, and we know now the worst possible record is 2-80,
rather than the previous “on pace” numbers of 0-82.
With All Hallows Eve, Samhain, or Halloween on our doorstep, I thought I might indulge in a bit of trick or treating. I’ll cover some tricks, or mischiefs small and large, we’ve seen from the Rockets now. Tomorrow, ere the sun sets on the turning of the year, I’ll offer a few treats for Rockets fans as well.
Trick One – The Rockets are the highest scoring offense in the NBA, with an offensive rating of 125.2. They aren’t leading by much, but that is good for number one. Surely, you might think, this number is pace driven. The Rockets are scoring so much because they’re playing fast. They aren’t. In fact, the Rockets are 28th in pace, leading only the Celtics and Clippers. I suppose that’s a trick and a treat.
Trick Two – The defensive rating isn’t great. The Rockets defense is currently ranked 19th overall. Some of this is partly a function of having a 37 year old Kevin Durant on the floor. Some of it is bad luck. Some of it is not defending the three point shot well. Some analysts believe that teams really can’t defend the three that well, and that opponent shooting percentage from three is an independent variable. It affects other variables, but is itself unchanged by them. Is this true? Maybe? What we do know is that opponents make more wide open threes than contested threes, and the Rockets are leaving a lot of wide open threes.
Trick Three – The Two Big Lineup isn’t something you can run all the time. Detroit is a big team, and was ready for the lineup, and more or less wrecked it. Toronto looks like a big team in some respects, but lacks a real center right now, and doesn’t play big, and moreover isn’t that interested in offensive rebounding, or judging by appearance, rebounding generally. The two big lineup wrecked them. The Rockets won the rebounding battle 53-22. You’ll rarely see a more decisive edge in an NBA game.
Trick Four – Positionless basketball may be more aspirational than anything else. It’s an easy thing to say, and a team may even seriously set out to do it. An NBA team, though, is comprised of various tasks that must be accomplished to achieve victory. Some of those are big, like defend, shoot, rebound, pass. Some are small, like be available for an inbounds pass, or help a player out who’s picked up his dribble, or who is on the ground with the ball, and can’t move lest he be called for traveling, or offer a safety valve for a player who dribbles himself into a box canyon. Those tasks are mostly done by guards. They are so very much a guard task that most Rockets, who with three exceptions, aren’t guards, just don’t do them. They can learn to do them, but those are the sorts of things that are “wired” into players who have more or less played the same way from a very young age. Forwards don’t really do those jobs, and right now, they aren’t getting done.
Trick Five – With the number one offense in the NBA, Ime Udoka probably isn’t going to change much of anything about the offense.
