Since the Deacs are on bye this week, I thought now would be a great time to look back over the last 6 games and evaluate how the season has gone thus far for Wake Forest.
The Deacs currently sit at 4-2 overall and 1-2 in the ACC. Given that Wake’s win total for the year was set at 4.5 by Vegas, I think it would be safe to say the Deacs are overperforming what a lot of the experts thought they would do this season. That being said, Wake has currently played the 112th toughest schedule in the nation
(out of 136) according to ESPN, and half of their wins have come against teams that are currently looking for a new coach. We won’t be apologizing for the Deacs taking care of business against bad teams, but there is a case to be made that Wake’s best win so far this season is the 10-9 victory over now 4-2 Kennesaw State in the season opener. So, while the Deacs have looked a lot better than I think most of us were expecting them to, the resume is definitely lacking signature wins.
The biggest difference between last season and this season has obviously been the defense. Through 6 games, the Deacs are 40th in the nation in scoring defense and 38th in total defense, giving up just 20 points and 322 total yards per game. For comparison, last season Wake was 112th in scoring defense and 118th in total defense, giving up 32.5 points and 435 yards per game. That is an amazing turnaround in just 1 year.
It cannot be overlooked how good of a job Scottie Hazelton and the rest of the defensive staff did constructing the defense through the portal in the offseason. UConn transfer Langston Hardy has probably been the unit’s MVP so far this season with 33 total tackles, 7 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks in 6 games. He’s not the only transfer on the defensive line playing well either–WKU transfer DT Jayden Loving has 5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks and CSU transfer Nuer Gotkuoth has 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, and 1 interception. Probably the most important additions, though, have been in the secondary, especially with NC A&T transfer Karon Prunty (5 passes defended) and South Alabama transfer Lardarius Webb Jr. (4 PD). Having corners who can actually defend and make plays on the ball in the passing game has been really fun to watch. I would guess that being able to rely on the DBs in coverage probably also allows Hazelton to open up the playbook and get more creative in how he brings pressure and creates havoc on defense.
The new additions combined with the experienced returning players like Nick Andersen (50 tackles, 3 PD), Davaughn Patterson (38 tackles, 4 PD), Dylan Hazen (34 tackles, 4.5 TFL) and Quincy Bryant (33 tackles) has made Wake Forest one of the best defenses in the nation.
The Deacs are currently in the same area code in adjusted EPA/play on defense as national title contenders Ohio State, Texas Tech, Miami, Oklahoma, Indiana, and LSU (via Bud Davis). I’m not entirely sure the last time Wake was this good on defense, but if I had to guess, I’d say it was the season that ended with an ACC Championship and a trip to the Orange Bowl.
The offense hasn’t been as good. The Deacs are currently 70th in the nation in scoring offense and 53rd in total offense with 29 points and 409 yards per game. While Wake scores when they get an explosive play on a deep ball or a big run from Demond Claiborne, they have really struggled to do anything when they are forced to move the ball methodically down the field–the Deacs are currently converting just 37% of their 3rd down attempts (92nd in the nation) and have just 109 first downs (112th) this season. The last game against Oregon State is a great example: the Deacs scored touchdowns on plays of 36 yards, 52 yards, 55 yards, and 66 yards. Outside of those big plays, Wake scored an 11-yard TD on a drive that started at the OSU 29 and a 43-yard field goal before the half on a drive that resulted in all of 6 total yards. Wake ended the game with 39 points, but they were 1-9 on 3rd down and punted 6 times.
So, while the Wake Forest offense has been able to put up enough points to win 4 or their 6 games, their average EPA/play has not been great because they are so reliant on those rare big plays. The main reasons for that, in my opinion, are Demond Claiborne’s injury issues and inconsistency at QB.
Claiborne is obviously having a great year so far–he is currently 2nd in the ACC in both rushing yards (539) and rushing touchdowns (8) and 3rd in the conference in yards per rush (7.9). That being said, he has failed to rush for more than 35 yards in half of Wake’s game this year due to nagging injuries. As Wake hasn’t gotten much from his backups (46 carries for 135 yards), the offense more or less falls apart completely when he is unable to play. Claiborne had 3 carries against Kennesaw State—Wake only scored 10 points in that game. He had 2 rushing attempts in the 2nd half against NC State, and Waked finished that half with 0 points and 2 first downs. He then missed the entire second half against Virginia Tech, and the Deacs accounted for just 138 total yards and 6 points in that half. Clearly, having Claiborne on the field is vital to the success of the offense, so hopefully he is less dinged up in the second half of the season.
The other cause of Wake’s low offensive efficiency is inconsistency at QB. In his 5 starts, Robby Ashford is completing around 60% of his passes for 1,172 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. That doesn’t seem that bad, but a quick look at his spider chart from CFBNumbers will show you that he is below the 25th percentile in almost every statistic except sack rate.
Comparing him with the rest of the QBs in the power 5 also does not paint the best picture for the Wake Forest offense.
Ashford has seemingly improved as the season has progressed, so there is hope that some of this is just due to a new QB learning a new system early in the year. The elephant in the room is backup Deshawn Purdie’s 270-yard, 4 TD performance against Oregon State. While the Beavers were pretty hapless in that game, Purdie made some really nice throws down the field and seemingly gave the offense a whole new dimension. That probably puts on a little pressure on head coach Jake Dickert to consider making a change, but we will have to wait and see how that evolves over the next 6 games.
Even though the offense has struggled a little, the offensive staff still did a pretty solid job in the portal considering they had to replace most of the starters at every position outside of running back. The offensive line, which is composed of mostly portal players, has been great so far–the Deacs have only been sacked 6 times this year (16th) for 32 yards. That is an impressive turnaround considering Wake was sacked an average of 43 times per season over the last 3 years. Probably the biggest pickup on either side of the ball has been Washington State transfer Chris Barnes. Barnes has been the most electric player to watch on the team, and he’s currently 28th in the nation with 115 all-purpose yards per game. Utah Tech transfer Eni Falayi (12 catches, 183 yards), Cincinnati transfer Sterling Berkhalter (13 catches, 225 yards), and WSU transfer Carlos Hernandez (15 catches, 133 yards) have also significantly contributed to the passing attack this season.
The first 6 games showed that the Deacs can compete with anyone in the ACC, but the next 6 games are really going to be what defines how successful the season is. The strength of schedule for the final 6 games is rated as the 59 toughest in the nation by ESPN, which is a pretty big jump from 112th. The Deacs will have plenty of chances to get a signature win with road games against UVA, FSU, and Duke, as well as a home game against SMU. Much like a common critique of Dave Clawson’s time at Wake Forest, one of the knocks on Jake Dickert at WSU was that his teams seemed to falter down the back half of the schedule. Over his 3 full seasons at Washington State, Dickert’s Cougar teams finished 7-13 in the final half of the schedules (including bowl games). In 2023, after a 4-2 start, the Cougars finished 5-7 with some pretty bad losses to 2-6 Arizona State, 3-6 Stanford, and 4-6 Cal. After an impressive 8-1 start last season, Wazzu finished 8-5 with notable losses to 5-6 New Mexico, 5-6 Oregon State, and 3-9 Wyoming. I don’t think Wake will be big underdogs in any of the remaining games on the schedule, so if Wake and Dickert can avoid the late season collapse pitfall, they really shoud have a shot at winning 7+ games. Frankly, with UNC and Delaware remaining on the schedule, it would be concerning if Wake did not make a bowl game this season after starting 4-2.
For now, things are trending up for the Deacs, and it looks like AD John Currie made a great choice in his decision to hire Jake Dickert as the head football coach. With a little improvement on offense over the next 6 games, Wake could find themselves as a top 10 team in the ACC by the end of the season, which should–in my opinion–get Dickert at least a couple of ACC Coach of the Year votes. I am excited to see how the team finishes out the regular season.
Go Deacs!
