Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic Detroit had the scoop on Monday morning. The arbitration hearing between Detroit Tigers’ ace, Tarik Skubal, and the club will take place on Wednesday, February 4. The arbitration panel will have 24 hours to rule in favor on one party or the other.
The Tigers filed for a one-year contract of $19 million, while Skubal and agent Scott Boras filed at $32 million. The midpoint is $25.5 million, which is where the the three person panel will essentially make an over/under
decision and award Skubal either $19 million or $32 million. The two parties could still work out an agreement beforehand but that seems out of the question by this point.
The difference of $13 million is the largest in the history of arbitration. Should the Tigers win, that decision will set a pretty firm cap on arbitration awards for now. Should Skubal win, he’ll set a record for the highest salary ever for an arbitration eligible player, surpassing Juan Soto’s $31 million a few years back. Soto’s deal was agreed without a hearing, so the Skubal decision, should it go his way, will also set a new standard for arbitration awards for the top players in the game. His would also be the biggest one-year increase in the sport’s history.
The Tigers initially offered $19.80 million, which was rejected. That amount would just break David Price’s 2015 record for a one-year salary for an arbitration eligible pitcher by $50,000, though again, that deal was negotiated to agreement by then GM Dave Dombrowski and Price’s representatives. It didn’t go to an arbitration panel. It’s fairly telling that 11 years later, the Tigers offered Skubal the same amount, and that is why many expect Skubal to come out on top in the hearing. That certainly isn’t guaranteed, however, as the size of the raise year over year would also be unprecedented should Skubal win through and receive the $32 million.
A minor war of words in the media has followed, as the two parties filed their initial numbers, each rejecting the others’ demands. At that point negotiations ceased, the two parties filed their numbers, and there have been no reported talks since. The Tigers came off looking rather poorly based on their offer just on the Price comparison alone. They did fire back a little through the media, suggesting that they were willing to negotiate from that point, but that Boras and Skubal cut off negotiations.
As big of a story as this is for Major League Baseball, particularly with the next CBA negotiations looming, we’ll have to see if this is actually impactful for the Tigers themselves. The $13 million may be the difference in terms of adding another depth starter or not, and the starting pitching market has ground to a halt over the last week or two, perhaps in anticipation of arb hearings around the league finalizing payroll numbers for numerous teams. But unless the Tigers are getting into the Framber Valdez sweepstakes, they’re probably hunting for a cheaper, one-year starter either way.
You can read Stavenhagen’s piece on the arbitration standoff right here, but it is paywalled.
Still, knowing Skubal’s number one way or the other at very least gives them that clarity. Another looming factor is that pitchers and catchers will report to spring training on Wednesday, February 11. At that point, the Tigers could move an injured player like Jackson Jobe to the 50-day injured list, allowing them to sign a player without designating anyone for assignment.
So the next two Wednesdays will be big for freeing up the Tigers as they look to finalize their roster for 2026. The question is whether they’re waiting on these two dates or not. If they’re actually planning to keep adding signficant talent to the roster once they have Skubal’s final number and can open a 40-man roster spot, we should find out over the next two weeks.
