Well, this has been fun, huh? After over a month of frustrating baseball, the Cubs emerge from the doldrums with three thrilling victories over the first-place Brewers. The Brewers hadn’t lost three straight since May or three straight to the same team since their opening series of the year against the Yankees. There might not be a more improbable three straight wins than this anywhere in this Cub season. And now, we were able to go to sleep dreaming about three straight wins and then sending Shōta
Imanaga to the hill.
Matthew Boyd has been the best Cub pitcher this year and probably Cade Horton checks in after that. But also, the Cubs have won 72 percent (34-13) of Imanaga’s starts since he joined the Cubs. To be fair, last year’s insane 23-6 is an enormous chunk of that. The Cubs should probably be favored to win, however slightly, a fourth straight game against the Brewers. Neat.
And, no matter what happens Thursday afternoon, the Cubs have won this series. They’ve also won the season series against the Brewers. No National League team that has finished their season series against the Brewers has won the season series. The Diamondbacks, Padres and Giants are all leading their series, respectively, against the Brewers with one series remaining. The Giants and Diamondbacks are the next two teams for the Brewers followed by the Blue Jays and Phillies.
This is that stretch that separated the Cubs and Brewers on schedule difficulty. If, the Brewers have any kind of hangover or regression on tap, this is a brutal sequence of games. They play so well, have looked so good even in losing these three straight games, that I’m not forecasting a fall-off. I’m just noting that a mortal team could get knocked around in this kind of stretch.
Before I move on to numbers, I want to really call out one specific player from this game. He’s the cover photo, the Superhero and my top star. That is Colin Rea. If the Cubs were being honest, I think there were probably four relievers in the Cub bullpen for this game. The Cubs needed a strong performance out of Colin if they were going to have a chance of winning this game. He clearly didn’t have his best stuff, and this Brewer team is so good at laying off of chase pitches, but there he was well into the sixth inning.
Look at the bigger picture, though. This was Rea’s 22nd start of the season. This is the 15th time he allowed two or fewer runs. Additionally, he threw 5.1 out of the bullpen once, behind an opener, and allowed no runs. Sometimes a guy like Rea is called an X factor. Often, a guy like Rea isn’t even thought of enough to be called an X factor. Rea was this team’s X factor. Don’t get me wrong. People who forecast that if the Cubs would be good in 2025 it would almost certainly mean that Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch were ascending stars. That’s happened, and we’ve seen while they’ve slumped a bit that this team is quite a bit better when those guys are going good.
Full stop, Rea has been one of the most important players on this team. He won his 10th game. I know win/loss record isn’t a highly effective statistical matter. That 10-5 record seems pretty fair for Rea. 16 times he was the bulk Cub pitcher and allowed two or fewer. 16 times, he gave them a chance to win. But also, 23 times he was the bulk pitcher and in those 23 games, he had a shortest outing of 3.2 innings. He’s thrown 122 innings over those 23 outings. Right at about 5.1 innings per game.
While I’m throwing bouquets, let me say it one more way. What would you have thought about this season if I’d told you heading into it that Rea would throw the second most innings for this team? Pretty wild. He’s going to be right on the edge of qualifying for the ERA title in 2025. As I type this, only 58 pitchers can claim such a thing. I assure you that 58 won’t reach the finish line. Rea is maybe 50/50 to reach it at best. He COULD get seven more starts. If he throws 34.2 innings, he makes it. He’s got to keep nailing five innings per start. But also, the Cubs have six starters on the roster as we speak. He’s not guaranteed to get seven more starts.
Pitch Counts:
- Brewers: 129, 30 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 151, 39 BF
The Brewers throw an eyelash over 16 pitches per inning. That’s not a tremendous number. It was kept in control by only allowing four hits and three walks (and turning a double play). It was elevated a little by nine strikeouts. Four Brewer relievers threw, none threw over 18 pitches. Shelby Miller and Abner Uribe have both thrown consecutive days. Uribe only threw six pitches. That’s the territory where maybe you’d use him in a specific situation Thursday. But the Brewers should have plenty of pen to try to salvage a second win in the series with.
On the Cubs side, that 151 looks pretty unsightly. Just under 17 pitches. That’s a mess. A lot of that is distorted by Daniel Palencia’s ninth inning adventure. Rea threw 96 pitches. Caleb Thielbar throws 17 pitches to get four outs. Another unsung hero. Brad Keller threw a tidy 10 pitches. Not particularly Nostradamus, but I was correct that Thielbar/Keller/Palencia would work 7-8-9.
Thielbar has thrown 30 pitches over two days and pitched three times in four days. Since May 25-27 he’s thrown in three straight days once. But that was not a four times in five days. I think he’ll almost certainly be down Thursday (and will tell Craig he’s good to go). Keller threw 34 pitches over the last two days. He’s not thrown three straight, he’ll be down. Palencia will obviously be down. He’s had an adventurous back-to-back days of throwing. So the Cubs will be leaning on the other five. Probably Andrew Kittredge gets the ninth inning again for a save or tie game.
Three Stars:
- Colin Rea. Huge start. I think this is the fourth or fifth time I can think of where the Cubs really needed a big start and he came through.
- Matt Shaw. Two absolutely pivotal moments in this game. Matt Shaw couldn’t get a bunt down. That turned into a 12 pitch plate appearance. Then he hits a homer in the eighth and that run ends up being the game winner.
- For the second straight time facing young Jacob Misiorowski, his command lapsed for one inning. The last time, the Cubs couldn’t really hit the game-breaking play. This time, Michael Busch worked a hitter’s count and then drilled a three-run double to let Rea throw downhill rather than uphill.
Game 127, August 20: Cubs 4, Brewers 3 (73-54)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Colin Rea (.167). 5.2 IP, 24 BF, 3 H, 5 BB, 2 ER, 3 K (W 10-5)
- Hero: Michael Busch (.160). 2-4, 2B, 3 RBI
- Sidekick: Matt Shaw (.153). 1-2, BB, HR, RBI, 2 R
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.066). 0-3
- Goat: Carson Kelly (-.065). 0-3
- Kid: Ian Happ (-.060). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: The line out with the bases loaded and two outs to end the game. (.229)
*Unusual note: William Contreras was retired on two of the three biggest WPA plays of the game. The other was the cheese-stick double play if you were watching the Marquee broadcast. (.112)
*Brewers Play of the Game: Brice Turang’s two-out, RBI-single off of Caleb Thielbar. (.104)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winners: Game 1; Owen Caissie (219 of 246) and Game 2; Jameson Taillon 201 of 235 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +24
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +20
- Jameson Taillon +14
- Michael Busch +13.67
- Carson Kelly -14
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -25.33
- Seiya Suzuki -28
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) win (Cubs up 2). Mets (WC 3) lose (Cubs up 5.5). Reds lose (Cubs up 6.5). The Reds need to finish 23-11 to reach 90 wins. And I’ll still take the over on 90 wins.
Up Next: The fifth and final game of this series and the 13th and final game of the season series, Thursday afternoon. The Cubs have already locked the series with seven wins. Shōta Imanaga (8-5, 3.06, 103 IP) gets the start for the Cubs. He’s 3-2 with a 3.43 over his last seven starts (42 innings). The really key stat in there is 43 strikeouts and four walks. When he’s going good, the control is great and that’s been the case recently. Two starts against the Brewers this year, both in Milwaukee. He’s 1-1 with five runs allowed in 10.2 innings.
Quinn Preister (11-2, 3.48, 124 IP) starts for the Brewers. The former 18th overall pick of the Pirates in 2019 out of Cary, Illinois, has been terrific in his first full season. He’s 5-0 over his last seven appearances (six starts). He has a 3.27 ERA (41.1 IP). Two starts against the Cubs, both in Milwaukee. 10 innings, nine runs allowed. So obviously, 1-0 with those numbers. That’s such a Brewers number. His last was back on May 13, when he lost the second of back-to-back starts. He’s made 12 starts and four relief appearances (all bulk outings) since he last lost.
He’s due, right? Dare to dream. Maybe they can get one more.
