Another day and another loss for the Cubs. Three straight losses since they clinched a playoff spot. The last homestand of the season is going to end up being way more important than we’d have hoped. There’s every reason to believe that the Cubs will still be the first Wild Card. The road ahead is brutal for the Padres and no one else has any mathematical chance at catching the Cubs. So while teams can still shuffle around, the Cubs are essentially locked into one of two slots at this point.
That’s
small sympathy on another frustrating night in Cincinnati. Hunter Greene gave them a huge lift with his dominating performance Thursday and this team fighting for its life and its slim hopes of reaching the playoffs. The Mets did lose, so the Reds remain very much in the hunt. As I write and with some games still going, the Reds have nudged up to a full 21 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. They are just one game behind the Mets and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. I’d hoped that the Reds would be much more in trouble than they were. But they have a real shot and that has to be a bit of wind at their wings.
They are playing some of their best ball of the year and they’ve made the Cubs look bad in this series. The Cubs came into this series with a chance to win their sixth straight for the first time. Now, they have a chance at losing four straight for the first time. What an unbelievable turn of events. I hope so very much that my pre-road trip prediction of four wins on the trip ends up right. The sooner the Cubs can clinch the second spot, the more of a luxury that is for manager Craig Counsell.
In the first game of the series, it was the lack of offense, occasioned by the strong performance of Hunter Greene. In the second, it was bad pitching. Seven runs is just so uncompetitive. Now in this one, three runs isn’t enough and six runs allowed is still too much. Every pitcher that threw allowed at least one run. The offense mustered only seven hits and only five players had even one hit. They drew just one walk. None of this was good enough.
Even with only eight days left in the season this isn’t a must win. But, this is a game you need to win. At a time when you need to be putting your best foot forward, don’t get swept. What an ego blow at this time of the year. This team has been so resilient. Bounce back. Get one. Salvage one win. Win the trip. Go home and finish the job.
Pitch Counts:
- Cubs: 135, 36 BF (8 IP)
- Reds: 138, 35 BF
Two yellow lights. The Cubs throw 16.875 pitches per inning. The Reds throw 15.44. The Cubs results didn’t need to be so bad with those numbers. But for the second straight day, the long ball got them. Three homers accounted for four runs. That was paired with one nightmarish inning for Javier Assad that ruined his whole night. For the Reds, three runs feels right with their performance. And yet, but for two homers of their own allowed, they’d have gotten out of this even easier.
The Reds used four relievers to nail it down. Chase Burns threw more than 35 pitches in getting four outs. I imagine we don’t see him Sunday, but the Reds should be in pretty good shape and you know as they fight for life, everyone is going to make themselves available. The Cubs used three relievers. None topped 30 pitches, but Aaron Civale has only been used like a piggyback starter. He probably won’t pitch until mid to late next series. The others should be available.
Three Stars:
- Reese McGuire had arguably his second best game of the season. A homer, double, two runs driven in. Behind only his two homer debut earlier this year in Cincinnati.
- Nico Hoerner had two hits (.301).
- Michael Busch had a solo homer for the only other Cub run.
Game 155, September 20: Reds 6, Cubs 3 (88-67)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Reese McGuire (.278). 2-3, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, R
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.079). 2-4
- Sidekick: Willi Castro (.056). 1-3, 2B, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Ian Happ (-.221). 0-4
- Goat: Moisés Ballesteros (-.152). 0-3, BB
- Kid: Dansby Swanson (-.130). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Reese McGuire’s RBI double in the eighth inning cut the deficit for the Cubs to one. (.170)
*Reds Play of the Game: Tony Santillian struck out Ian Happ with runners on first and third and one out in the eighth, just a couple of batter later than McGuire preserving the one run lead. (.155)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Matt Shaw received 84 of 93 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +29
- Jameson Taillon +19
- Cade Horton +18
- Shōta Imanaga/Matthew Boyd +17
- Willi Castro/Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -20.33
- Carson Kelly -23
- Seiya Suzuki -30
Scoreboard Watching: The Cubs clinched a berth in the 2025 postseason. We will no longer monitor any of the teams who can no longer catch the Cubs. The only other teams that matter in any way at this point are the Padres and Brewers. The Mets lost Saturday in extra innings. I don’t suppose their attention is much on a higher playoff spot, so I don’t imagine this stings any more than any other loss at this point.
Padres (WC 2) win (Cubs up 4). Mets (WC 3) win (Cubs up 8). Brewers win (Cubs down 7). The Brewers magic number relative to the Cubs is 1. The Cubs magic number relative to the Padres is 4. The Cubs can still clinch by winning four of their last seven.
If the Cubs drop the ball this weekend, they’ll give the Mets more to play for next week at Wrigley. Winning games against the Reds helps the Mets. Though the Giants and Diamondbacks are all in that team photo regardless, chasing that last spot.
Up Next: Sunday afternoon, the Cubs send Jameson Taillon (10-6, 3.93, 116.2 IP) to the mound for his 22nd start. Jameson was terrific in Pittsburgh earlier this week. He threw six scoreless and picked up a win. He’s made two starts since coming off the IL for the second time this year and he’s allowed two runs in 10.1 IP. He faced the Reds at Wrigley Field back on June 1. He was the winner, allowing two runs in 6.1 IP. That was his third of five straight wins at the time.
The Reds start Andrew Abbott (9-7, 2.88, 156.1 IP). The lefty was a second round pick of the Reds in 2021 (53rd overall). He’s had a terrific season, but he’s been tailing off. He’s 1-5 with a 4.39 ERA over his last seven starts (41 IP). He’s started three times against the Cubs already this year. He’s 2-1 allowing five runs over 19.1 IP. He’s been better at home (2.52 vs. 3.31) and better during the day (2.59 vs. 3.07).
Another lefty. The Cubs are 19-21 versus lefty starters this season. Just a nightmare of a series for the Cubs at this time. Find a way.
