Mountain West Conference: The 2025 Bowl Picture Is Taking Shape
As the 2025 season heads into its final stretch, the Mountain West Conference is positioning itself for one of its strongest postseason showings in recent memory.
What makes this year especially compelling is the emergence of New Mexico and Hawaiʻi—two programs widely projected to finish near the bottom of the league. Instead, they’ve become two of the conference’s biggest turnaround stories.
Head coaches Jason Eck (New Mexico) and Timmy
Chang (Hawaiʻi) have revitalized their programs, pushing both into bowl eligibility with disciplined, inspired football. What they’ve done this season places them firmly at the top of the Mountain West Coach of the Year conversation.
Six Mountain West teams have already secured bowl eligibility, and several others remain within striking distance as November unfolds. Below is the complete breakdown of where each program stands and where they are likely headed in December.
Bowl Locks: Six Teams Officially Eligible
These programs have reached the six-win threshold and appear consistently in national bowl projections.
Boise State – LOCKED IN
Boise State remains one of the league’s most recognizable brands and continues to draw strong national interest.
Possible Destinations
- Primary: Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
- Secondary: LA Bowl, New Mexico Bowl
Why: Brand power, national visibility, and a loyal traveling fan base.
San Diego State – LOCKED IN
A defensive resurgence has powered SDSU back into the postseason picture.
Likely Destination
- Primary: LA Bowl
- Secondary: Arizona Bowl, Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Why: Proximity to Los Angeles makes this an ideal matchup for attendance and regional visibility.
Hawaii– LOCKED IN
One of the conference’s best stories, Hawaiʻi returns to bowl season for the first time since 2019.
Likely Destination
- Primary: Hawaiʻi Bowl
- Secondary: New Mexico Bowl, Arizona Bowl
Why: A return to the home-state bowl is the most logical and likely outcome.
UNLV – LOCKED IN
The Rebels are becoming one of the Mountain West’s most consistent programs, with another strong campaign under new leadership.
Likely Destination
- Primary: Arizona Bowl
- Secondary: LA Bowl, New Mexico Bowl
Why: UNLV’s growing fan support and exciting style make them attractive to bowl committees.
Fresno State – LOCKED IN
The Bulldogs maintain their status as one of the Mountain West’s most dependable postseason teams.
Likely Destination
- Primary: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
- Secondary: Arizona Bowl, New Mexico Bowl
Why: Strong history with the Potato Bowl and steady national reputation.
New Mexico – LOCKED IN
In one of the league’s biggest surprises, New Mexico is bowl eligible for the first time since 2016.
Likely Destination
- Primary: New Mexico Bowl
- Secondary: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Arizona Bowl
Why: The Lobos playing at home creates strong attendance, boosts local interest, and benefits the bowl itself.
Bowl Contenders: One Win Away
Utah State – VERY LIKELY
The Aggies have surged late and need one more win to lock up another postseason appearance.
Projection:
- Primary: Arizona Bowl or Potato Bowl
- Secondary: ESPN At-Large Pool
Probability: ~70%
San José State – POSSIBLE
SJSU remains alive for a bowl spot but must finish strong and may need outside help.
Projection:
- Primary: ESPN At-Large Pool
Probability: ~50%
Outside the Main Bracket
Air Force – SLIM CHANCE
Strong effort, but results have not matched preseason expectations.
Probability: ~25%
Colorado State – OUTSIDE SHOT
Competitive, but unable to close out tight games.
Probability: ~20%
Wyoming – UNLIKELY
A rebuilding year with a tough finishing schedule.
Probability: ~10%
Nevada – NO REAL PATH
Still in the early phase of a full rebuild.
Probability: ~5%
Projected 2025 Mountain West Bowl Lineup
- LA Bowl: San Diego State vs. Pac-12
- Hawaiʻi Bowl: Hawaiʻi vs. AAC/CUSA
- New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico vs. CUSA/MAC
- Arizona Bowl: UNLV vs. MAC
- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Boise State vs. MAC
- Guaranteed Rate Bowl / At-Large: Fresno State
- At-Large Pool (If Needed): Utah State or San José State
Closing Thoughts
The Mountain West is on track to send at least six teams to bowl games—and possibly seven or eight if things break the right way. That level of postseason participation is crucial for the league’s long-term health and national perception.
More bowl teams means:
- Increased revenue shared across the conference
- Greater national exposure on December broadcasts
- Improved recruiting visibility
- Boosted investment in facilities and competitive growth
Every appearance elevates the Mountain West’s brand and reinforces its status as one of the premier Group of Five conferences. With multiple compelling storylines, breakthrough seasons, and rising programs, the league’s postseason outlook is brighter than it has been in years.
