I tell you, I’ve seen more frustrating games, but I really can’t remember when (Week 3 of this year, actually). Watching live, this felt like a game where the Green Bay Packers just kept shooting themselves in the foot, and I haven’t seen many stats since then that have suggested otherwise. Looking at this drive chart and it’s insane to think that the Packers only scored 13 points.
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In this space, we’re focusing on the performance of the passing game, so let’s get to it.
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That deep interception looms
large in the outcome of the game (and we’ll get to it shortly), as does the lack of a touchdown pass. But, overall, it’s not a bad-looking chart. A lot of attempts between 0-10 yards, a decent peppering at 11-20 and a handful of deep shots. On the day, Jordan Love’s ADOT (Average Depth of Target) was 8.8 yards, his highest since the Week 2 game against the Commanders (per NFL Pro). Man, Week 2 feels like a lifetime ago.
You can go down the list of the numbers from the game – as well as the film – and they all tell some version of the same story: down-to-down, the passing game functioned well. They moved the ball well all day through the air, but they just didn’t finish with points.
Love completed 70.3% of his passes for 7.4 YPA (adjusted completion% of 74.3%, per RBSDM). His EPA Per Dropback of +0.14 was behind his league-leading +0.26 EPA Per Dropback, but it still ranked 10th in the league this week.
The Packers only used play action on 18.4% of their dropbacks this week, their lowest mark of the year (they’re at 29.6% on the season, the 4th highest rate in the league). That wasn’t a mistake: the Panthers are the 4th best defense in the league this year against play action, sporting an EPA Per Dropback of -0.12 against play action attempts this year. Not to step on my Eagles preview, but I would imagine we’ll see the play-action rate shoot up this week.
It certainly was not a fun watch – two turnovers and a 20% TD rate in the red zone will do that to you – but, on a windy day, the passing game operated pretty well. The Packers ended the day with 265 net passing yards, which equaled the total yards generated by the Panthers. Obviously, you need to finish drives and score points, but after going through the game, I have far fewer issues with the passing game than I thought I would.
Alright, let’s take a look at a couple of plays. Today we’re looking at a couple of big plays: one good, one bad.
Play 1: 3rd & 12, 12:08 remaining in the 2nd quarter
The game was scoreless at this point, with Xavier McKinney intercepting Bryce Young in the end zone to end the Panthers’ drive. The Packers started this drive with a 2-yard loss by Josh Jacobs, then an incomplete deep pass to Matthew Golden (beautiful throw, man.)
The Packers were undeterred by the previous play and are looking for something deep again. They trot out a deep concept that doesn’t look too different from the one they just threw to Golden. It’s one that I tag as Portland, and it’s grouped in the Mills family (aka, Fox 2 XY Hook). A deep post over a deep in-cutting route from the other side.
The Packers are in 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR), in a 3×1, shotgun spread look. Romeo Doubs [87] is the iso receiver on the right, while the left side consists of Malik Heath [18], Christian Watson [9] and Tucker Kraft [85] in Trips. Watson is the #2 receiver in that formation (counting from the outside-in). The Panthers are showing three deep defenders just past the sticks. Doubs is running the deep in-cutter while Watson is running the big post over the top.
At the snap, Jaycee Horn [8] stays with Doubs on the in-cutter while Latham Ransom [22] fades back over Watson, with Nick Scott [21] turning to run with Watson from the inside.
With Horn pulled down, that leaves a nice space of grass on the right. Yes, Watson is bracketed, but Watson is very fast.
Love steps up and throws a bomb to Watson, who comes down with a 52-yard catch.
The ball hangs a bit, but Watson tracks the ball well and comes up with a strong catch. The Packers would finish the drive with a field goal, taking a 3-0 lead.
Play 2: 1st & 10, 6:42 remaining in the 3rd quarter
We’re heading to the interception. At this point in the game, the Packers are down 7-6, having ended their previous drive with a 43-yard missed field goal. After a 3rd down conversion off a double-catch from Doubs, the Packers are looking at a fresh set of downs.
And what do they roll with? A version of the concept we just looked at.
This time, the Packers are in 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) in a tight, under-center formation. They start in a 3×1 look, but Luke Musgrave [88] motions before the snap to end in a 2×2 formation. Where the last play was more of a wide-open, everybody-get-out concept, this one is more of a max-protect, 2-man concept, with a couple late check-and-releases.
Doubs is outside on the right, while Watson is the outside receiver (in a tight split) on the left. The Panthers are showing two high safeties pre-snap, then bail at the snap. They’re in a Quarter-Quarter-Half look, with a two-safety Quarters look over Watson and a Cover 2 safety over Doubs.
After completing the playfake, Love scans the field on the dropback. I don’t think he ever sees Horn. When he looks at Watson, he sees a Quarters look and believes the Panthers are in Quarters on the back end. If they are, the safety over Doubs would be pulled up by the in-cutter, opening grass over the top for Watson.
But Horn doesn’t bite down on Doubs. After Doubs breaks to the middle, Horn passes him off to the inside defenders and sprints to rob the post.
Watson splits the defenders to his side in roughly the same manner he did on the previous play, but it doesn’t matter. Once again, the wind holds the ball up, and Horn is sitting in the middle of the field.
Horn picks up a relatively easy INT and takes it back 36 yards.
Albums listened to: Florence + The Machine – Everybody Scream; The Beatles – Help!; Brother Bird – Another Year; Maps – Welcome to the Tudor Gate
