The Battle of the Paul Bunyan trophy kicks off at Spartan Stadium this season in yet another night game for the No. 25 Michigan Wolverines. We’ve heard the cliché “throw out the record books” all week
long, but oddsmakers don’t believe in clichés, as Michigan is a two-touchdown favorite.
Ahead of what very well could be Jonathan Smith’s last game in East Lansing, here’s what Michigan needs to do to avoid the upset.
Take a deep shot to demoralize the Spartans
The best way to avoid an upset is starting the game out strong. Letting a team linger around lets belief creep in and makes more talented teams nervous. The Wolverines can’t let the Spartans hang around, and starting off the game by testing Michigan State’s inconsistent secondary — which ranks 128th out of 134 DI FBS teams in team passing efficiency defense — early in this game.
If I were Chip Lindsey, I would take a deep shot on the very first offensive play. Send Andrew Marsh on a Go Route, run a trick play to Donaven McCulley, or maybe have Jordan Marshall (or Justice Haynes, if he’s available to play tonight) run a wheel route. Demoralizing this team in the opening minutes could lead to this becoming a 40-point win.
Convert on third down and get the Spartan offense off the field
Michigan has the advantage in almost every statistical category, but one advantage that is more slight than Michigan fans may be comfortable with is third down conversion rate. The Wolverines have converted 40.5 percent of third downs (34-of-84, 66th in the country), but that’s not much better than the Spartans (39.3 percent, 35-of-89, 75th).
Three-and-outs would be an easy to keep hope alive for MSU. Michigan needs to convert on third down, while also preventing the Spartans from converting those money downs to help dominate time of possession and control the pace of the game.
Pressure Aidan Chiles into making mistakes
My editor/beef stroganoff expert Von Lozon broke it down with me on the Pick ‘Em podcast this week — this MSU offensive line is ROUGH, and the Wolverines should be able to get pressure with four guys while dropping back seven in coverage.
Creating pressure is the easiest way to force Aidan Chiles into mistakes. While he’s popped in moments in the past year and a half, he has a tendency to throw some back-breaking, mind-numbing interceptions. To paraphrase CBS Sports’ Tom Fornelli, his Whoopsie Daisy rate is quite high.
If Michigan gets out to a lead, MSU will be forced to throw the ball. The Wolverines need to dare Chiles to beat them, and the secondary should be practicing on the jugs machine to prepare for all the errant passes.
What else does Michigan need to do to win this game? Let us know in the comments below.
