At first glance you see the Carolina Panthers’ 6-6 record and think “they must be a young and improving team on an ascend”.
A deeper dive reveals they are mostly a product of a weaker schedule and in part
a beneficiary of the hapless NFC South:
Week 1 at Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-26 (0-1)
Week 2 at Arizona Cardinals: 22-27 (0-2)
Week 3 vs Atlanta Falcons: 30-0 (1-2)
Week 4 at New England Patriots: 13-42 (1-3)
Week 5 vs Miami Dolphins: 27-24 (2-3)
Week 6 vs Dallas Cowboys: 30-27 (3-3)
Week 7 at New York Jets: 13-6 (4-3)
Week 8 vs Buffalo Bills: 9-40 (4-4)
Week 9 at Green Bay Packers: 16-13 (5-4)
Week 10 vs New Orleans Saints: 7-17 (5-5)
Week 11 at Atlanta Falcons: 30-27 (6-5)
Week 12 at San Francisco 49ers: 9-20 (6-6)
Carolina’s wins:
The Panthers beat the Falcons twice, which Rams fans will know as one of the worst teams in the NFL as they are closely following Atlanta’s first round pick because it is held by LA. Carolina also defeated the down-trodden Dolphins and Jets.
Their two most impressive wins came against the Packers and Cowboys.
The Cowboys game came well before the NFL’s trade deadline and prior to Dallas reinforcing their defense through trades. Rico Dowdle rushed for 183 yards and Bryce Young tossed three touchdowns despite only having 199 yards through the air.
Dowdle also had 130 yards and two scores in Week 9 against the Packers, though Young took a backseat with only 102 yards and an interception. It’s not every day that you see a running back eclipse their quarterback in yardage output, and it’s not a strong recipe for success.
Carolina’s losses:
It’s an indictment on the Panthers that they’ve lost to two mostly noncompetitive teams in the Cardinals and New Orleans Saints. Carolina didn’t stand a chance against either of the AFC contending Patriots or Bills, as they lost by a combined 60 points in these two contests alone.
While record may not reflect as much, the Jaguars and 49ers are closer to the middle of the pack than having the facilities to make a playoff run.
Simply put, if you can’t even play a close game against the Jaguars or 49ers, how can you even expect to keep pace with the NFL front-runner Los Angeles Rams this weekend?
Zooming out:
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF) overall team grades, the Panthers rank 23rd out of 32 NFL teams with a score of 71.0. While their record is encouraging on the surface, they are overachieving because of a weak schedule and playing in a soft division. They haven’t faced the NFC South leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (overall grade of 73.9 (18th) to date and have two games remaining, of which they can use to either prove me wrong or correct.
Meanwhile the Rams have a decisive lead in PFF’s overall metric at 94.8. LA is currently ranked number one on each side of the ball.
The Panthers don’t stand a chance in Week 12
If Bryce Young can only manage 169 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions (he had three turnover-worthy plays which suggests it could have been even worse) against an injury-riddled San Francisco defense, how bad will he look against the number one unit in the league?
We can expect the Rams to bottle up Carolina’s run game, which is an area this defense has taken a massive step forward in from last year; however, this is the Panthers’ only lifeline to keep this game competitive. Los Angeles must maintain their positive performance in the trenches and on the ground in order to stifle an upset from the Panthers.
It’s probably easier done than said.
