Good morning, Broncos Country. Last week during their mandatory minicamp, star cornerback Patrick Surtain II mentioned that the Denver Broncos adding wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to the offense creates an entirely ‘new dynamic’ for the franchise. During their 2025 season, we saw a lot of explosive plays from various receivers on the team. Unfortunately, the overall consistency of the group was lacking.
Waddle’s addition should provide an enormous boost for the Broncos’ aerial attack in 2026. His presence
should drastically help them be more efficient. Sporting a 70-percent career catch rate, that’s far ahead of most any player on the Broncos receiving significant volume. Moreover, his ability to carve up coverages should also help open up opportunities for other players on the team.
However, as I asked in my question in the end of the above linked article, just how much of an impact can he make in year one with the Denver Broncos? For that, I thought I’d do a little bit of digging. First, we have to consider the potential volume of passes for Denver this upcoming season. Then, analyzing Waddle’s historical target share and production.
Last season, Bo Nix threw 612 passes in the regular season. That was the most of any quarterback in the National Football League and a significant jump from 567 during his rookie season in 2024. It’s certainly possible that Nix will be among the NFL’s attempt leaders in ‘26 as well, though I’d posit the Broncos would benefit from establishing the run more prominently this season.
With respect to target share, this is how the Top 10 shook out for Denver last season:
- Courtland Sutton, 124.
- Troy Franklin, 104.
- Evan Engram, 76.
- RJ Harvey, 58.
- Marvin Mims, 51.
- Pat Bryant, 49.
- Tyler Badie, 31.
- Adam Trautman, 23.
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey, 15.
- J.K. Dobbins, 14.
With Waddle poised to be a huge part of the offense this season, it’s safe to say the numbers of several of the players above will be drastically different. You don’t trade a first and third-round pick for a wide receiver if you aren’t planning to get them over 100 targets in the offense. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Waddle surpasses Sutton as the Broncos’ most targeted player.
Jaylen Waddle’s target share and production with the Miami Dolphins
- 2021: 140 targets, 104 receptions, 1,015 yards, 6 touchdowns.
- 2022: 117 targets, 75 receptions, 1,356 yards, 8 touchdowns.
- 2023: 104 targets, 72 receptions, 1,014 yards, 4 touchdowns.
- 2024: 83 targets, 58 receptions, 744 yards, 2 touchdowns.
- 2025: 100 targets, 64 receptions, 910 yards, 6 touchdowns.
In Waddle’s rookie season, he saw the most volume of his five-year career. He had the most receptions in ‘21, but his yards per catch average and explosive play rate was significantly less compared to the following two seasons where his efficiency was off the charts. The past two years have been his least productive with the lowest amount of involvement in the Dolphins’ passing offense.
Yearly average over a 5-season sample size: 109 targets, 75 catches, 1,008 yards, 5 touchdowns.
In my opinion, I believe Waddle’s target share in Denver in ‘26 will be above what we saw with Franklin last year (104) and comparable, if not slightly higher to Sutton’s (124). With so many other players on offense, it is hard for me to imagine him topping his career high of 140—but that is a possibility.
Using his career catch-rate as a threshold for performance alongside YPR, the projection based on ~ 125 targets would be roughly 88 catches for 1,188 yards and 6 touchdowns. That would give him his second-best marks in catches and yards, and keep him steady with career performance with respect to touchdowns.
What do you think, Broncos Country? Do you have bigger expectations than that? What kind of numbers do you feel Waddle is going to produce this year? Sound off in the comments section and let me know.
As always, thank you for reading. Here is today’s slate of articles for Horse Tracks.
