It just keeps on going. The Cubs complete another walk-off win. Consecutive walk-off wins, consecutive PCA lead-off homers. I could get used to this. That’s 13 of them and that ties 1932 and 2015 for the second most in franchise history (14 in 1930). I keep seeing echoes of that 2015 season. That’s a really special season for what it was and what it led to. I’d be over the moon if this season is either part of or a bridge to the next Cub championship. But it won’t tarnish the fun that this summer
has been. The walk-offs. The further ascendency of Pete to baseball royalty. A really gutsy trade deadline. So much to love this season. (Even if those trade deadline moves have so far produced uneven, at best, results.)
Before we dissect another fun win, let’s rewind a bit. There is a lag now between the WPA numbers I see at the time I’m writing and what is there when Al edits and posts what I write. So it is hard for me to put in perspective the season long implications of a WPA score. That is doubly true with extra-inning games. When the ghost runner became a thing, it broke the standard WPA calculators. I’m not a coder, so I don’t understand why there isn’t some “easy” fix for that runner. But the initial numbers always get confused as to how that baserunner is there. I’m imagining some casual fans are too, right? Trying to understand why baseball changes its rules at the end. I mean hockey and football also have different rules in their overtime. So it’s not insane. But still. It’ll always be weird to me.
Nico Hoerner’s .797 WPA for the Monday night game was indeed the highest WPA score of the season. Noting back to the prior paragraph, it originally posted over the .800 mark. As we get into that rare air, when was the last higher score by a Cub? In 2018, the Cubs produced two scores higher. One is essentially impossible in the modern game. Who remembers Eddie Butler? I remember him throwing a ball to my daughter in spring training of 2017. On March 30, 2018 Butler threw seven innings of one run ball. In relief. That one run? It lost the Cubs the game 2-1.
But that wasn’t even the highest WPA score of that season. That belongs to the ultimate WPA event. On August 12, 2018 David Bote batted with the bases loaded and two outs, the Cubs down three. He hit an ultimate grand slam, flipping a 3-0 loss to a 4-3 win. As it was pinch hitting, his WPA game score was the whole .901 event. That nudged out Butler’s .898.
One other fun WPA note. They tweak it. All of the time. I assume between seasons, but I’m not really sure. While the Butler game was .898 at the time I recorded it, it’s a mere .850 now. As they tweak it, it effects what you’ll see on a site like baseball reference. David Bote’s now shows as .904. So even a little more remarkable with time. That’s the ultimate event score. In theory, you could register a game score over 1.000. If you kept getting clutch hits and your pitching kept giving it up, you could amass a lot of WPA. An easy example for Cub fans is the “Sandberg game.” Homer to tie it in the ninth, homer to tie it in the 10th, five hits and seven RBI in total. That was a 1.088 WPA game.
So needless to say, Nico’s game was an almost once in a decade WPA score. If you said that PCA absolutely HAD to be the Player of the Game, I think you probably are underselling Nico’s game. I always hesitate to tell someone their opinion is wrong. But if you don’t see the two of those as 1 and 1a for the game, you are probably under valuing Nico a bit.
For this game, Tuesday night, Alex Bregman appears to have checked in with the fourth highest WPA score of the year. Alex isn’t what he once was as a player. We’re talking about a guy who was a real decisive offensive force in the game for a while. He’s not that anymore. But his defense is exceptional, guys who are often credited as leaders on this team look to him for leadership and the bat is slowly coming around to be pretty darn productive. I tend to like hitters who were first round picks and have been All-Stars before. Even when you get them in the twilight of their career. To be fair, I don’t think Alex (or Dansby Swanson) have reached their twilight. But, I love guys like them, because they don’t shy from the big moment. To use basketball language, they used to be the guy who hit the shot. Granted almost all of these guys were THAT guy in high school. But I think it is something different when you’ve done it on the biggest stage. I’ve seen Dansby be in a horrid slump, stand in with the game on the line and have a super high quality plate appearance. And now I’m seeing Bregman do it. Obviously, if you could get an army of this year’s Pete Crow-Armstrongs, you’d do that. I mean, how fun would it be to see him playing all over the diamond. But seriously, you grab in their prime stars when you can. But guys who have well rounded skillsets and aren’t one foot into retirement yet are pretty darn valuable too.
My last narrative of the game is going to be about Javier Assad. Can a player both be overrated and underrated? I think Cub fans tend to over rate Javier. The Cubs know he’s a valuable piece but also one that can be overexposed if he’s given a very long leash. Non Cub fans probably significantly under rate Javy. That guy has accepted every role they’ve given to him and he’s clearly pouring his heart out with every appearance. There aren’t many guys on the team that I want to see succeed more than him. I can’t think of too many guys in recent years who have gotten more of a percentage of their possible production than him. The last one I can think of was the run Albert Almora Jr. got on for a while until he was ultimately overexposed. And he didn’t do it for as long as Assad has. I truly don’t believe you could hand him a major role and have it work. But he’s really excelled in two long stretches over different seasons for this organization. I love that he’s under control for at least one more year. He’s so valuable in that utility role.
One last, last note. Jacob Webb. He threw a scoreless ninth to set up the heroics. There he is collecting both wins in this series. Between Webb and Michael Conforto, they’ve really carried last off-season’s acquisition class. Oh heck, why don’t I give everyone a hat tip. This is a good handful of huge runs I can remember Kevin Alcántara scoring for this team. The bat hasn’t worked yet, but the wheels play.
Three Positives:
- Sure, why not sneak in another one here. One at bat for Carson Kelly, he doubles and scores the winning run off of the bench. I was a little scared with a catcher running on a line drive single with the outfielder charging it.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, just the one hit. But leading off the game with a homer is a big deal. He did draw two walks, though one was intentional. He had to start picking up intentional walks eventually.
- I’m going to give a little love to Michael Busch here too. He had a solo homer in the first off of a lefty. He added a walk. He missed two homers by maybe 10 total feet on Monday. Feels like he’s getting the power stroke going for the stretch run. Sure would love to see him get on a heater.
As is always the case in a one-run win, there are a number of guys who played a key role in the win. I think I hit most of them somewhere along the way.
Game 127, August 18: Cubs 4, White Sox 3 (74-53)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Alex Bregman (.537). 2-5, 2 RBI
- Hero: Javier Assad (.214). 3 IP, 10 BF, 2 H, 2 K
- Sidekick: Carson Kelly (.173). 1-1, 2B, R
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.289). 0-5
- Goat: Kevin Gausman (-.129). 4.1 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 R, 5 K
- Kid: Pedro Ramirez (-.112). 1-4
WPA Play of the Game: Alex Bregman’s walk-off single in the ninth inning. (.390) For the second straight night, the same Cub was responsible for the two biggest plays of the game. His game-tying single in the seventh was the second. (.233)
White Sox Play of the Game: Tristran Peters doubled with a runner on second and one out in the fourth, giving the Sox the lead. (.125)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 126 Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong received 84 of 115 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +30
- Alex Bregman +22
- Shōta Imanaga +14
- Trent Thornton/Carson Kelly +13.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Edward Cabrera -12.5
- Jameson Taillon -13
- Dansby Swanson -17
- Caleb Thielbar -19.5
Notes: Javier Assad is now sixth at +12 and Seiya Suzuki is next on the negative at -9.
Scoreboard Watching: Phillies win (five back). Diamondbacks lose (eight back). Padres win (six back). Braves lose (even). Brewers win (4.5 up). Dodgers win (two up). So, at least for one day, there are only three teams in baseball with better records than the Cubs and one of those is the Rays in the AL, just one ahead. Regardless of what you think of them, this Cub team isn’t going away. They are on a 94-win pace. 94 probably doesn’t win the division.
Up Next: An afternoon game Wednesday as the Cubs go for a sweep. It was fortunate catching the White Sox at the back of their rotation while the Cubs were in good position. We’ll take it. Clay Holmes (5-5, 2.56) starts for the Cubs. His last Wrigley start was awesome. One hit, one walk over 6.2 innings against the Cardinals. It’ll be interesting to see how he bounces back from that. Sean Newcomb will be the opener for the Sox, followed by José Urquidy as the “bulk guy.” Urquidy is 1-1 with an 8.10 ERA and was the bulk pitcher behind an opener last time through. He threw 3.2 innings against the Tigers and picked up a win in doing so. He hadn’t actually started games at the major league level since 2023 with the Astros. There’s no way he’s fully stretched. The Sox bullpen isn’t crazy taxed out of these first two games though, getting good work from the main pitcher in each game.
Get greedy and finish the sweep. Deliver the bitter pill to a pesky young team and worry about them in a year or two as they develop.
