A Literal Embarrassment of Riches
I honest think one of the best ways to analyze a basketball team is to break down possible minutes. To look at what I call The 240 Problem. That is, a team has 240 minutes available,
total, in any basketball game that doesn’t go to overtime. Theories of rotations, or development minutes, or even versatility often falter when faced with the reality of 240.
So let’s stipulate the front court is roughly the center and power forward roles. The primary job description is: protect the paint, defensive rebounding, score inside, set screens, offensive rebounding. The Rockets, via Sengun, KD, Jabari Smith and Dorian Finney-Smith can also include switch on defense to some extent and shoot from the outside and for KD, midrange.
We’ve got 96 minutes here. For “center” there are 48. The players who can plausibly play some center are Alperen Sengun, Steven Adams, Clint Capela, Jabari Smith. You can also include Jae’Sean Tate and Jeff Green sometimes.
Last season Alperen Sengun averaged about 32 minutes per game, though much of that came before the revelation that Sengun and Steven Adams could not only co-exist, but complement one another in the same lineup. There are of course shooting questions, but if you’re not going to shoot well, is replacing an unearthly force at rebounding, protecting the paint, and screen (and don’t forget passing with both Adams and Sengun) with mediocre shooting really that helpful? Maybe it’s better to press an advantage even further? We will see.
As for Sengun, though, his rookie extension has begun, he’s now making 22% of the NBA salary cap. (I think this is a more useful way to talk about money now, as if you’ve been following the NBA for a while, the new salary numbers just sort of short circuit critical thinking sometimes). As your second highest paid player, he in some sense needs to play more. If he’s the player we saw lead Turkey, undefeated, to the EuroBasket Final where the lost to Germany (with two high level NBA players and several more bench guys), he needs to play more. As a player who by some metrics was a top ten defender overall, if not in blocks, he needs to play more. As a highly skilled player, and a big part of the Rockets future, who turned 23 in late July, he needs to play more.
So, let’s give Alpie 35 center minutes per game. We have 13 remaining, without biting into power forward minutes. As you will see, this is something of a problem. We can give those minutes to Adams, and on back to backs, or if he needs rest, Clint Capela.
On to power forward. This is a conundrum. The Rockets just extended Jabari Smith, and quietly the finish to his season was quite good. Jabari won’t turn 23 until May of 2026. There were many players drafted in the summer older than Jabari. He should still be in a high growth phase of his career. He is probably your second most versatile defender, after Amen. He received a contract extension, but it has not yet begun. Unless you are viewing him as a trade piece, he probably needs to play more than 30 minutes per game. Let’s be modest and say 32.
But how? You also have the following players more than capable, and in some cases at their best, playing power forward: Tari Eason, Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Jae’Sean Tate and Amen Thompson. For this exercise, Kevin Durant is a small forward, which we’ll cover tomorrow.
So now we’re wondering who plays the other 16 minutes at power forward. It might be Sengun, if you want more Steven Adams or Clint Capela at center, but let’s ignore that for now as a sometime, match up dependent idea.
Let’s have Dorian Finney-Smith play those 16 minutes, with the likes of Tate and Green really being an energy boost unit, change of pace, group.
So as we finish up the frontcourt players, we have minutes for Sengun, Adams/Capela, Jabari Smith and Dorian Finney-Smith. Despite Tari Eason maybe being best at power forward, he’s not playing there. Perhaps the Rockets are sometimes positionless at SG/SF/PF? They might choose to be. They might have to be.
Looking at that group, only Smith and Finney Smith can be considered shooters, unless Alpie can find the form from three he showed sometimes in Eurobasket 2025. IF he does, the Rockets become terrifying. If Jabari Smith gets better at just catching and shooting over guys, rather than going on a multi dribble drive to nowhere, the Rockets are much better. If anyone can help Jabari do that, perhaps its the presence, or at least the example, of Kevin Durant. Dorian Finney-Smith is a good 3pt shooter, career 36%, but around 40% or better in the past three seasons, on decent volume of about 5 attempts per game.
If the Rockets need to make a trade from depth, it’s probably in this group, or including small forward as well.
Tomorrow I’ll cover the wings, and minutes there. This position is a minutes scramble, with too many eligible players, as so many guys can reliably handle the traditional power forward spot, and the Rockets have an emerging star, and recent All Star, center, and two other players worthy of minutes at the spot.
As we move onwards, it’s less a scramble and more of a question.
Happy Media Day – The Rockets play basketball again in about one week!
