The next player I wanted to grade this season is Cade Cavalli. After missing almost all of the last two seasons, Cavalli was finally healthy in 2025. It was not perfect, but Cavalli also showed the skills
that made him so highly touted. Despite being 27 now, Cavalli remains a breakout candidate due to his stuff and inexperience for his age.
There is actually a great twitter thread I found that talked about why Cavalli is a breakout candidate. They explained how Cavalli was late to pitching and did not have much experience on the mound. Despite that, he has always shown elite athleticism and stuff. Most 27 year olds are reaching their peak, but for Cavalli, he is just getting started.
The most important thing for Cavalli in 2025 was to stay healthy and pitch. After missing all of 2023 due to Tommy John Surgery, 2024 was supposed to be the year where Cavalli came back and claimed a spot in the Nats rotation. However, things did not go according to plan. There were many bumps in the road for him that year. Between a dead arm, a mysterious illness and his body just not feeling right, Cavalli was limited to just 8.1 innings.
Time was ticking for Cavalli entering 2025. He was an older prospect who had not pitched much. This year, Cavalli was on the mound and logged a good amount of innings. Between the MLB and MILB, Cavalli threw 122.2 innings. Not exactly 200 frames, but that is a good number for a pitcher who had not thrown much the last 2 seasons.
In those innings, Cavalli showed flashes but still has not put it all together. In the minors, his ERA was actually over 5 in 74 innings. However, the velocity was still strong and a lot of the advanced numbers showed that Cavalli was getting unlucky and his ERA should have been closer to 4. He was still getting plenty of strikeouts, but his BABIP was unusually high.
Despite not having great numbers in the minors, the Nationals still gave Cavalli a shot in the MLB in August. Funnily enough, his numbers were actually better in the MLB. Cavalli posted an ERA of 4.25 in 48.2 innings across 10 starts. Nothing special, but certainly respectable.
In those outings, there were ups and downs for the right hander. At his best, Cavalli could be absolutely electric. His first start of the season against the A’s was special. The fastball was in the upper 90’s and even touched 100. His curveball was an absolute hammer and his changeup was a weapon. It was the type of stuff you see from an ace.
However, there were also inconsistencies. For a guy who throws in the upper-90’s with good secondary pitches, Cavalli can be quite hittable. Opponents hit .289 against him, with right handed hitters in particular feasting on him.
This comes from a couple things in my opinion. The first is poor command. It is important to distinguish command and control because Cavalli’s control was actually pretty good. He only walked 6.8% of hitters which is well above average. However, the command is a different story.
Cavalli misses his spot in the zone quite a bit. There were so many times in 2 strike counts where Cavalli threw a pitch that caught way too much of the plate and it resulted in a hit. That is why he only struck out 18.3% of hitters. The stuff is there, but the execution is not.
When he did execute, he was nasty. You can see that in his 33.9% chase rate and his 27.9% whiff rate. The whiff rate is in the 72nd percentile and the chase rate is in the 95th percentile. If Cavalli can figure out how to put batters away and hit corners, there is still a big upside here.
I bet Paul Toboni is excited to get his hands on Cavalli. In his press conference yesterday, he talked about how he wants pitchers with big velocity. Cavalli fits the bill, averaging 97 on his heater.
Despite some ups and downs, with modest numbers, this was a very successful season for Cade Cavalli. He showed that the stuff is still there after his injuries and that he could handle a fairly big workload.
2026 could be the year of Cade Cavalli if he tweaks a couple things. Finding a weapon against right handed pitching and fixing his command in the zone are the two things Cavalli needs to work on. If he can get those things sorted and remain healthy, he can become a big piece in the middle of the Nationals rotation. This year Cade Cavalli reminded Nationals fans about why they need to pay attention to him.
Season Grade: B+
