Everybody knows that one of the best parts of being a sports fan is debating and dissecting the most (and least) important questions in the sporting world with your friends. So, we’re bringing that to
the pages of LGHL with our favorite head-to-head column: You’re Nuts.
In You’re Nuts, two LGHL staff members will take differing sides on one question and argue their opinions passionately. Then, in the end, it’s up to you to determine who’s right and who’s nuts.
Today’s Question: Would it actually be better for Ohio State to lose to Indiana?
Jami’s Take: Yes
When it comes to this weekend’s Big Ten Championship, I find myself juggling competing interests. On one hand, I don’t like to lose, and I’m always rooting for total domination by the Buckeyes. On the other hand, I am a realist, and I am playing the long game. I care more about repeating a national title than I do about winning the conference.
While I recognize this game feels important to both sides, the reality is it’s not, unless it’s another feather in the cap (sticker on the helmet?) on the way to winning the College Football Playoff. In fact, there is a world where this game is actually a harbinger of doom for the winner. This is the exact scenario I’m trying to avoid for my beloved Buckeyes.
It is very hard to beat the same team twice in a season. In general, the odds show the same team winning twice just slightly more than 50 percent of the time. However, as would be the case for Ohio State and Indiana, when the rematch occurs in a playoff or bowl game, the odds favor the team that lost the first game.
Since 1992, when the College Football Bowl Coalition was established, there have been 17 total rematches in bowl or playoff games. In one instance, the first meeting ended in a tie, so let’s exclude that from our numbers. Of the remaining 16 rematches (again, this is strictly in playoff or bowl games), teams split the wins twelve times, with the same team winning both meetings only 25 percent of the time. It has not happened since 2007, when Purdue beat Central Michigan in the regular season and again in the Motor City Bowl.
With this in mind, Saturday’s Big Ten Championship gives me pause. While it’s by no means a done deal that Ohio State and Indiana would meet again in the playoffs, it’s also not unlikely. These are the two best teams in the country as it stands right now, the lone unbeatens until Saturday. While there are some historically excellent, well-decorated programs in the mix for the College Football Playoff, Ohio State and Indiana have felt largely separated from the pack this season in terms of talent, two great teams sitting above some really good ones.
This is not meant to be disrespectful of the other playoff contenders—they all deserve their playoff spots, and ultimately, you have to play the game to crown the winner. Any one of them could surprise me and render this whole column moot by knocking out Indiana, Ohio State, or both. But going off what we know today, there’s a good chance the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers are going to meet again when it counts.
If that’s the case, arguably it is better for the Buckeyes to lose Saturday’s game in Indianapolis. This isn’t to say I’ll be actively rooting for the Hoosiers — I won’t. I’ll still huff and puff if the Buckeyes lose as if no one in the history of the world could possibly understand my trials and tribulations. But what I’m ultimately rooting for is another title in Columbus, and if I have to sacrifice a win this Saturday to get it, I can live with that.
I had similar feelings about Oregon in 2024 — knowing we would likely meet them twice last season, I spoke pretty candidly about how I didn’t care what happened in Eugene in October. Of course, I cursed at the TV and stomped around when we lost. I do not like to lose, and I won’t ever actively root against the Buckeyes. But when it came down to it, if we had to choose a win in Eugene or a win at the Rose Bowl, I think we’d all pick the Rose Bowl, and I was hedging my bets that we’d win when it counted.
Sure, in an ideal world, OSU would win Saturday, someone else would take care of Indiana in the playoff before we had to face them a second time, and we’d coast to back-to-back titles. But if that’s not meant to be our fate, if we are meant to face the Hoosiers in the postseason, then it’s not that I’m rooting for the Buckeyes to lose on Saturday. It’s that I’m rooting for them to win when it actually counts.
Matt’s Take: No
I hear what Jami is saying, no team has beaten an opponent twice in an FBS college football season since 2007, so if the Buckeyes are going to face the No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers in the Big Ten Championship Game and then again in the National Championship, I understand the thinking that you want the win to come in the College Football Playoff Title Game. I also recognize that the No. 1 seed might have a tougher road facing someone like Oklahoma, Notre Dame, or Alabama as opposed to potentially a Group of 5 team or an ACC champion Virginia.
So while I understand the strategic advantage that might come with losing the game, I don’t think it would be better for the Buckeyes to end their current 16-game winning streak. This team is chasing something bigger than a conference title, or even a national title; it is in pursuit of history. If the Buckeyes do win back-to-back CFP championships, they would have won 20 consecutive games, 11 against ranked teams, including nine versus top-10 opponents. If they were to accomplish that, there would be no arguing that it isn’t the greatest run in college football history.
That is the air that this year’s Buckeyes are traveling in, and in my mind, that type of history is worth pursuing, even if it means risking some of the important benchmarks along the way. This team has methodically worked through the season, checking things off its to-do list one at a time. Despite preparing for each game specifically, the coaches and players have approached each opportunity to take to the field as a piece of a much larger puzzle.
Today will be no different. Ryan Day has meticulously laid out a plan for his team all season, and as IU has proven to be the second-best team in the country, I have no doubt that his plan has evolved. I believe that Curt Cignetti’s team will give the Buckeyes a test, but this is not a zero-sum game; Ohio State does not have to exhaust everything in its arsenal at once, leaving it with a lesser chance of winning should they meet again.
I imagine that Day, Brian Hartline, and Matt Patricia will not only have some things left in reserve for a potential second matchup but will more than likely set things up for a return game. Showing schemes and plays so the Hoosiers see them on tape when preparing for a national title game, only for OSU to build off of their previous tendencies and surprise IU with something new.
So, while ultimately very little will change based on who wins the game at Lucas Oil Stadium tonight, in my mind, there is not only no advantage to losing; I think that it robs this group of Buckeyes of the chance to go down as part of the greatest run in the history of the sport.
