The Cubs first reached 18 games over .500 on July 4 with an 11-3 win over the Cardinals. They’ve played 38 games since then and they are 19-19 over that time. That feels like a lot of lost opportunity. The massive run the Brewers went on as a backdrop to that stretch was adding injury to insult. What felt like it should be a National League Central title has almost certainly drifted away.
That’s still the sobering reality. But, at least for one day, the Cubs took care of business again. They swept
a doubleheader from the Brewers and they cut the division lead to seven. That’s still a massive deficit this late in the season. Though for what it’s worth, they built it about that fast. There are 36 games remaining. If the Cubs split those last 36 games, they will win 90 games. That would require the Reds to finish 24-12 over their final 36 games just to match the Cubs record. So even if you say the last 38 is the fair valuation of this team and that the first 88 games was the fluke, this team has done more than enough to be a playoff team.
As we saw today, this team can pitch and play defense well enough to keep them in games. That can be true even against a really good team like the Brewers. If you jumped off of the bandwagon already, you almost certainly jumped too early. Even if Kyle Tucker can’t get straightened out in time to contribute down the stretch, the team found a way to win two games without him today. Something tells me it’s premature to give up on Tucker too.
It was fun to see the Cubs get contributions up and down the roster for the two wins Tuesday. The Cubs used seven different relievers in the doubleheader. None pitched more than one inning. And none allowed a run. Game one saw six runs batted in by Willi Castro and Owen Caissie who are both bench players on this team. Caissie and Castro then came back in game two and contributed again to the win.
I can’t say it often enough, a healthy portion of the regular season comes down to production that you can get over the course of the year from roster spots 21-40. Most teams are reasonably decent 1-20. The big separation usually starts to occur as key players suffer injuries and the drop off is too significant. If all 30 teams had good health for all 162 games, the gap between the best and worst teams would be a fair bit less.
The Cubs came into Tuesday with 13 hitters who have produced positive bWAR. That number doesn’t include either Caissie or Castro and Caissie, at least, should flip positive after the doubleheader. The Cubs had 15 pitchers with positive bWAR, including some bit players like Justin Steele and Brooks Kriske. But it didn’t include Andrew Kittredge who should be knocking on the door. The Cubs have used 30 different pitchers and 19 different hitters. There aren’t too many of those guys who haven’t contributed at least a few key moments over the course of the year.
The Cubs need to win one of these two games to win their season series with the Brewers. I’m saying there is a chance.
Pitch Counts:
Game 1:
- Brewers: 116, 33 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 158, 39 BF
Game 2:
- Brewers: 144, 37 BF (8 IP)
- Cubs: 131, 34 BF
Brewers game 1 a little over 14 pitches per inning; game 2 18 pitches per inning. The Cubs offense was much more effective at making the Brewers work hard in the second game, but the results were better in game 1. The major difference? A three-run homer in the first game and two total homers. The Brewers only used three relievers across two games. Aaron Ashby is probably the only Brewer reliever not available Wednesday (or Thursday after throwing 50 pitches.
The Cubs worked hard in that first game. The Cubs threw 18.55 pitches per inning in the first one. They were more efficient in the second one at 13.55. In the first game, the Cubs allowed eight hits and six walks. That first game could have gone worse than the four runs they allowed with that much traffic. Game two, they only allowed one walk to go with seven hits. That’s something Jameson Taillon gives you when he’s healthy.
As noted earlier, seven Cubs relieved in one game or the other. Taylor Rogers threw 19 pitches in game two, the second of back-to-back days for him. Andrew Kittredge pitched for the fourth time in five days. Brad Keller threw 24 pitches in game one. I think if the game is close Wednesday we see Keller but not Rogers or Kittredge. Daniel Palencia and Caleb Thielbar are probably also available to contribute Wednesday, along with Drew Pomeranz. You can almost pencil them in for the seventh, eighth and ninth innings today. That could hand Ryan Brasier the sixth, if Colin Rea can’t finish six.
Three Stars:
Game 1:
- Owen Caissie notches the first three runs batted in of his career and first homer. He also played some decent defense in a tricky right field at Wrigley Field.
- Willi Castro with a big three run homer.
- Hat tip to one of my favorite accomplishments. Caleb Thielbar faced two batters and recorded three outs. And he did it with a two run lead, relatively late. Caleb’s contributions to this team are highly under appreciated.
Game 2:
- Jameson Taillon gave the Cubs six innings of five hit, one walk, one run pitching. This game looked rough on paper. Easy to forget he had a stretch of five straight wins (in five starts) and was part of running out to that 18 games over .500. (The Cubs were 49-35 before he got hurt, 21-19 while he was out)
- Nico Hoerner, single, walk, run, run batted in, and stolen base.
- Ryan Brasier came off of a string of four straight outings where he allowed at least one run and then got back in there to protect a lead against the top of the Brewer order. He got a 1-2-3 inning.
Game 125, August 19: Cubs 6, Brewers 4 (71-54)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Owen Caissie (.277). 2-4, HR, 3 RBI, R
- Hero: Caleb Thielbar (.127). IP, 2 BF, K
- Sidekick: Willi Castro (.108). 1-4, HR, 3 RBI, R
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Brad Keller (-.097). .2 IP, 5 BF, H, 2 BB, 2 K
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.045). 0-3
- Kid: Resse McGuire (-.028). 0-3
WPA Play of the Game: Owen Caissie’s two out, two-run single in the first inning for the game’s first two runs. (.169)
*Brewers Play of the Game: Sal Frelick’s two-out, RBI-single with runners on first and second and no outs in the sixth. It cut the Cubs lead to one. (.147)
Cubs Player of the Game: (Game 1)
Game 126, August 19: Cubs 4, Brewers 1 (62-54)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Jameson Taillon (.235). 6 IP, 24 BF, 5 H, BB, ER, 4 K (W 8-6)
- Hero: Nico Hoerner (.163). 1-3, BB, RBI, R, SB
- Sidekick: Michael Busch (.157). 1-4, 2B, BB, 2 RBI
THREE GOATS
- Billy Goat: Pete Crow-Armstrong (-.115). 0-4
- Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.085). 0-4
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.046). 1-4
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Busch batted with a runner on first and two outs in the second inning, the game tied. He doubled and Owen Caissie scored from first to give the Cubs the lead.
*Brewers Play of the Game: Andrew Vaughn batted with runners on first and second and two outs in the first. He singled and gave the Brewers an early 1-0 lead. (.102)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Drew Pomeranz received 63 of 106 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Kyle Tucker +24
- Matthew Boyd +23
- Shōta Imanaga +20
- Jameson Taillon +14
- Michael Busch +11.67
- Carson Kelly -12
- Julian Merryweather -15
- Ben Brown -19
- Dansby Swanson -25.33
- Seiya Suzuki -28
Scoreboard Watching: Padres (Wild Card 2) win (Cubs up 2). Mets (WC 3) win (Cubs up 4.5). Reds win (Cubs up 5.5).
Up Next: The fourth game of the series, Wednesday night at Wrigley Field. The Cubs go for a series win. Colin Rea (9-5, 3.99, 121.2 IP) makes his 22nd start (26th appearance). 3-2, 3.68 (36.2) over his last seven, so not fading. One start against the Brewers, July 29. Losing pitcher, allowing four runs on nine hits in four innings. So tough test here. He’s pitched a lot more during the day (almost twice as many innings), but has been better at night (3.70 vs 4.15).
23-year-old phenom Jacob Misiorowski (4-1, 3.89, 34.2 IP) starts for the ninth time. They’ve really watched his health and pitch count, so some starts have been pretty brief. The Reds plated five runs on four hits and three walks against only four outs last time in Cincinnati. July 28, he allowed two runs on three hits and two walks while striking out seven against the Cubs. There are sample size issues, but he’s 3-0 with a 1.35 in 4 starts (20 IP) at home and 1-1 with a 7.36 in 4 starts (14.2) on the road.
Wouldn’t it be something if the Cubs could win this game? The Cubs have not lost three games in a series. It would be something to avoid that occurrence against a team that has been this hot.
