There are 30 teams in the National Basketball Association.
(How’s that for insight?)
Some have it easier than others. That’s always been the case. The NBA practically has a caste system. Moving up a rung requires more maneuvering than Viola disguising himself as Cesario in Shakespeare’s Twelfth Night.
Take the Washington Wizards. They are cosmically stinky. The best player in the franchise’s history is Wes Unseld, who, with all due respect, played in an era when an NBA head coach quite literally lit stogies
during games.
That was Red Auerbach, the head coach of a Celtics team that always gets to be good for no apparent reason. At least the Lakers play in Los Angeles. There’s at least a causal explanation for their never-yielding goodness.
Then, there’s the Houston Rockets.
Middle-upper class. Seldom among the best teams in the league. Rarely in the duldrums. This iteration of the team is no exception.
There are teams you’d readily trade places with. Please do not deny it. If the Spurs offered to trade rosters and assets, you would trade rosters and assets. Lest we even name The Team Who Shall Not Be Named.
Yet, as a Rockets fan, complaints will find deaf ears with over half of the league’s fanbases. They are objectively in a good spot.
Maybe they shouldn’t do anything about it.
Rockets don’t need to rush decisions
This may seem like a 180. Consider it a publicly available internal dialogue of a confused fan.
Antetokounmpo is tempting. The logic is simple. This is the best player that is likely to be available while the Rockets have assets. Get him.
If they do, you won’t find complaints from me. More broadly, the Rockets’ roster is flawed, perhaps irredeemably. We should all be cozying up to the reality that Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson are not a natural fit. Neither is a natural fit with Antetokounmpo, for the same reasons, but the logic in acquiring him would be that the Rockets are already this good with a roster flaw, so imagine how much better they’d be with an upgrade.
Yet…you’re still trading the farm without alleviating your two non-shooter problem. You’re solving your no franchise player problem, but creating a new no more assets problem. From a utility perspective, the math does not, as the kids say, math.
Questions emerge. Are we 100% sure you need a franchise player in what’s been dubbed in some circles as “the weakest link era”? No, but I land around 90%. Depth matters more than before, but it hasn’t usurped top-end talent as a priority. The best teams in the league have the best players in the league, and depth. You still need an elite player; it’s just that now, it seems more optimal to have 5 good players behind them rather than 2 elite ones.
(Unless you’re The Team Who Shall Not Be Named. Then, you’ve got Michael Jordan’s successor flanked by Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, and tremendous depth).
Are we 100% sure the Rockets don’t have a franchise player? No. I land around 85%.
It’s such a high bar. If it’s going to be Sengun, he needs to shoot about 10% better between zero-and-three feet if he’s not going to consistently shoot threes. If it’s going to be Thompson, he needs to shoot 10-15% better from deep if he’s going to functionally be a guard (and if he’s not going to be a guard, he’s not going to be a franchise player).
Reed Sheppard is an unknown variable in that sense. He can’t grow, so his three-point gravity has to be so immense as to offset his height. He’ll need to improve his handle. There’s no discernible statistical reason why he can’t be the guy, but his flaw may prove the most debilitating of the group.
Are we 100% sure the franchise player has to be currently on the roster, or Giannis Antetokounmpo?
…Now, we’ve arrived at the question.
If the Rockets think they’ll have to trade for “their guy”, they may want to consider haste. These players are not getting any younger. They’re approaching their mid-20s, and the “young player” luster will wear off quickly. That doesn’t mean they must move for Antetokounmpo, but it does mean they’ll basically have to pull the trigger on the next guy (Ant? Can Tyrese Maxey sustain his current offensive production in a winning environment, and would that make him a top-10ish player?) to hit the market.
Could they still draft that guy? The Rockets have some premium picks coming up. Between the Suns and the Nets, they’re likely to pick in the 2027 lottery. The class is seen as weak: But so was the class that yielded Antetokounmpo.
(And Nikola Jokic, by the way).
So many considerations. So much uncertainty. Here’s where it pays to be an optimist. The Rockets are still young. They still have a lot of picks. The glass is half full.
Why rush to alter a good situation? Within the next couple of years, this organization must clarify its direction. That doesn’t mean it’s pressing enough to rush into anything now. If the Rockets do decide to get Antetokounmpo, it will be a defensible decision, but perhaps the best thing to do is sit back, see what they yield with their next crop of draft picks, and make a decision from there.
The right choice could improve their class standing.
