Can inconsistency be consistent? The Cowboys are certainly trying to find that out. They still have yet to win (or lose) consecutive games this season after getting blown out by the Broncos in Denver.
The loss seemed to obliterate any and all optimism that was growing, as has been the case every other week this season.
As always, we look to the emotionless data to help offer guidance on this confusing, confounding, and contradictory Cowboys team. Let’s dive into some analytics.
The Cowboys dropped all the way from ninth in total team efficiency to 20th. That’s the biggest movement of the week, by far. A lot of that had to do with the defense, which had been on the upswing, getting ripped apart by a Broncos offense that was gravitating towards the lower half of the league in efficiency coming into the game.
Something that also bears mentioning: special teams is an issue. Brandon Aubrey and KaVontae Turpin cover up a lot, but Nick Sorensen’s unit is wildly undisciplined. Dallas is just one flag away from being the most penalized special teams group in the league, and they’re dead last in hidden points, a measurement that estimates points of field position gained by the opponent. This unit is a ticking time bomb right now.
In a just world, the Cowboys would see their logo clumped right in there with the Chiefs, Bills, Packers, and Colts. Their offense is certainly good enough to be there, and their defense has generally been good enough in years past. I wonder if Green Bay feels like there’s anything or anyone who’s helped their defense get into that upper echelon?
All snide remarks aside, this chart really lays the Cowboys’ problems bare. The defense is what’s keeping them from being one of the best teams in the league, but it’s not just bad, it’s like an anchor tied around Dak Prescott’s neck. Even average defensive play would put them firmly in the playoff hunt, but that feels like a more unreasonable ask with each passing week.
Offense
The offense took a step back, and rightfully so. Their performance against the Broncos was objectively bad, with hardly any positives to take away. However, a reason they don’t drop more dramatically is because the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league, which is something that has to be taken into consideration.
On the whole, this offense is still in very good shape. They won’t face another top 10 defense (by DVOA) until Thanksgiving, and that’s at least in AT&T Stadium, where they’ve crossed 40 points every game so far. It’s a momentary bruise on the ego, but the offense should get back to its high-flying ways as soon as Monday.
Dak Prescott had his first bad game of the year, and boy was it a stinker. For the first time since Week 1 – which was impacted by the drops from CeeDee Lamb – he posted a negative completion percentage over expected (CPOE). Prescott was also 16th in EPA/play, which isn’t terrible but it’s well below the standard he’s set this year.
The good news? It’s only one game, and against an elite defense. Fans will surely wish their quarterback was able to overcome elite defenses, but Prescott is still having one of the best seasons of any quarterback right now.
How good has Prescott been? Just ask his offensive line. For the third straight week, Prescott’s pressure rate has gone up while his adjusted sack rate has gone down. He now has the lowest adjusted sack rate in the league. In short, Prescott is bailing out his inconsistent pass protection.
Much of that has to do with his tackles. Tyler Guyton and Terence Steele are both among the top 10 tackles in pressures allowed this season; no other team has both tackles that high. The only other teams to have both tackles even in the top 15 are the Jets and Saints, who have a combined 2-14 record. Dallas needs better tackle play.
Defense
This defense seems to purely feed off energy right now. That’s not something that the analytics track, but it’s the best explanation. They were legitimately good against Washington, and they started off strong against Denver. Trikweze Bridges picked off a pass on the opening drive, and they forced a three-and-out that was ultimately undone by an arbitrary offsides penalty. After that penalty, though, they imploded.
That implosion brings the defense back down to last place, or very close to it, in every category that matters. For what it’s worth, Matt Eberflus continued the schematic changes he’s been injecting, including more blitzes and man coverage, but with so many injuries on Sunday it didn’t seem to make a difference.
Let’s clear something up about Kaiir Elam. His season-long stats aren’t impressive, but Elam has flashed immense potential when working in press coverage. Dallas has used press coverage more each of the last four weeks, and Elam is giving up a 25% completion rate and a 46.7 passer rating in those games. When the Cowboys safeties get healthy, Eberflus has plenty of reason to ratchet up the press coverage even more and unlock Elam’s potential.
The linebackers, however, remain an issue. Shemar James plays with grit for a fifth-round rookie, but he’s been a liability in coverage. Kenneth Murray has been worse against the run, but he’s plenty bad in coverage too. Perhaps we judged you too harshly, Jack Sanborn. Either way, DeMarvion Overshown can’t come back soon enough.
