Everton’s first defeat at Hill Dickinson Stadium, a week on Sunday, made it just one win from seven in all competitions for David Moyes, though the Blues boss was in contemplative mood in the aftermath.
Despite the Toffees losing 3-0 to Tottenham Hotspur on home turf – the heaviest defeat sustained by the Scot since his return to the club in January – it was a largely even game, in which the visitors had taken advantage of set-pieces — and it has to be said, some eccentric interpretations as to what is, and what is not, a foul on the opposition goalkeeper.
Personally, I felt that Jake O’Brien’s header was correctly ruled out, though whether Iliman Ndiaye was offside should not have been the deciding factor, but rather that he and Jack Grealish were merely trying to block Spurs goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario from moving freely. The same situation applied for both of the London club’s first two goals, with Micky van de Ven fouling Jordan Pickford — most blatantly for the second. Talk of the Blues shot-stopper needing to be stronger is irrelevant; you’re allowed to compete for the ball, not shove/barge goalkeepers.
But what goes on in the penalty area is murky, and the amount of grabbing and blocking that’s permitted currently by the officials is one reason behind the increased prevalence of set-pieces in the game, which is to its detriment, in my opinion. That being said, it’s high time for Everton to get back to winning football matches. Next weekend, they entertain Fulham, but on tonight the team travels up to the frozen North East, where they’ll face early season surprise package, Sunderland.
Form
After finishing a lowly 16th, in what had been a very disappointing 2023/24 campaign, the Black Cats surprisingly rebounded last season under their new manager Régis Le Bris, to achieve promotion from the Championship via the playoffs, defeating Frank Lampard’s Coventry in the semi-finals, and then favourites Sheffield United in the Wembley final. Considered to be – by some margin – the weakest of the promoted sides and pencilled in as sure-fire relegation candidates, Sunderland’s hierarchy got to work in what would turn out to be an unprecedented squad rebuild over the summer.
First in was midfielder Enzo Le Fée, whose half-season loan from Roma was converted into a permanent deal, for €23m, by agreement due to Sunderland’s promotion. The club added players in a structured, logical fashion, prioritizing youngsters, before adding more experienced players. Arriving were wingers Simon Adingra (€24.4m) and Chemsdine Talbi (€20m, Club Brugge) one-time Blues target Habib Diarra (€31.5m, Strasbourg), Noah Sadiki (€17m, Union SG) and former Arsenal stalwart Granit Xhaka (€15m, Bayer Leverkusen) in midfield.
Robin Roefs (€10.5m, NEC Nijmegen) ended the club’s search for a starting goalkeeper, and defenders Nordi Mukiele (€12m, PSG), Omar Alderete (€11.6m, Getafe), Reinaldo Mandrava (free, Atlético de Madrid), Lutsharel Geertruida (loan-to-buy, RB Leipzig) and former West Ham fullback Arthur Masuaku (free, Besiktas) rounded out the defence. Ex-Chelsea winger Bertrand Traoré, and striker Brian Brobbey both arrived from Ajax on transfer deadline day, for €2.9m and €20m, respectively, bringing Sunderland’s total outlay over the summer to €187.9m: quite the backing for Le Bris. Significant exits were Jobe Bellingham (€30.5m, Dortmund) and playoff final matchwinner Tom Watson (€12m, Brighton).
The North East outfit got the new campaign off to a good start by trouncing West Ham 3-0 at the Stadium of Light, only to falter at Turf Moor, losing 2-0 to fellow Premier League new boys Burnley. Since then, the story has been almost uniformly positive, with them scoring wins over Brentford, Nottingham Forest, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Chelsea, holding Crystal Palace and Aston Villa to draws (playing the latter largely with ten men) and losing at Old Trafford, to Manchester United. They sit in seventh place in the table as it stands, coming off last weekend’s come-from-behind victory at Stamford Bridge.
Style of Play
Le Bris is something of a tactician, in his approach. The Frenchman learned his trade in the youth ranks of his home country, mostly in his home province of Brittany, spending seven years in charge of Lorient’s reserve side. He only obtained his professional coaching licence a little over three years ago, in order to take charge of the Lorient first team. He led them to a creditable tenth-place finish in his inaugural season, but left following their relegation to Ligue 2 in the following campaign, prior to which he’d seen key players like striker Terem Moffi and Le Fée sold from under him. So, the appointment of the relatively unknown then 48-year-old was something of a surprise, but he’s so far proven his worth in English football.
Under the Breton, Sunderland are a flexible, hardworking and disciplined side, who show great energy and fight. Le Bris has generally favoured 4-2-3-1 as a base formation, but has changed to suit a particular tactical plan. This term, he’s often used 4-3-3, but last time out went with a 5-4-1, which he’d switched to during the first half of the team’s disastrous opening period against United, which saw them exploited in wide areas. The Frenchman’s emphasis is very much on teamwork and building a good spirit amongst his players, which has the team playing with admirable belief, togetherness and confidence.
The team are not overly interested in dominating possession, ranking 18th in the division, with just 42.4% — but unlike Everton, this does not change depending on whether they are at home, or away. Despite wanting to get the ball forward without too much delay, they don’t lose it carelessly, and a pass completion percentage of 79.5% is more indicative of them looking to play aggressively when offered a chance to break; 13.4% of their passes could be termed “long”. Xhaka’s corners and free kicks, and Mukiele’s long throws, de rigueur this season, are genuine weapons, with the brave Dan Ballard particularly dangerous attacking the ball.
Tonight’s hosts do not create a host of chances — just 9.8 per game (18th ranked), and they are exceeding their xG of 8.6 in scoring 11 goals. They’ve been solid in scoring from set-pieces (three) and counterattacks (two). Defensively, Sunderland allow plenty of efforts on goal (13.4 per game, 17th ranked), though an xGA of 10.4 (3.2 less than Everton) suggests most are low-quality shots. They are outperforming in this regard too, having only conceded seven goals, and do not appear particularly vulnerable in any one area.
Team Assessment
Roefs has been outstanding so far this term. The 22-year-old goalkeeper was signed off of just one season as a starter in the Eredivisie, and was not the club’s first choice target, but he’s handling the transition to the Premier League seamlessly and is a clear upgrade over last season’s promotion winner, Anthony Patterson. At centre half, Sunderland boast a trio of strong options, with Alderete, Mukiele and Ballard — who plays something like a younger James Tarkowski. Reinaldo – a petulant red card against Villa notwithstanding – has been an excellent addition at left back. The hard-tackling Trai Hume has retained his right back spot, but is having to fight off both the adaptable Mukiele, and Geertruida, who has impressed mostly from the bench.
Sunderland completely replaced last season’s midfield, with Dan Neil – a target for Everton in January – losing both the captaincy (to Xhaka) and a place in the starting lineup. The 33-year-old ex-Gunner has been a brilliant pickup, adding huge amounts of composure, experience, quality and leadership to what is a young side. Sadiki has been a revelation, an industrious ball-winner possessing endless energy, and who has a very high ceiling, at 20. The excellent Diarra is still out injured, so completing the trio will be either Le Fee or teenage wonderkid Chris Rigg, assuming Le Bris goes with a four-man defence.
On the left wing will likely be Le Fee, who is a natural central midfielder, but is valued by Le Bris for his willingness to track back in support of the fullback. The 25-year-old is tenacious and possesses quality on the ball. If the Frenchman is deployed centrally, then Talbi, who scored the winner from the bench against Chelsea, is almost certain to start. The Moroccan was used off the right in the early season, but is more effective on the left. The right is a slight problem area, with Traore holding the spot down currently, but he’s yet to genuinely impress. Up front is a holdover from the Championship, in Wilson Isidor, who’s stepped up so far in leading the team with four goals.
Prediction
This is far from being the relatively comfortable away day for Everton that most would have assumed back when the fixtures were announced. Sunderland are an almost completely rebuilt side, with the owners deciding that the team which achieved promotion would in no way be equipped to compete in the top flight. Whilst this could be seen as being ruthless – with the likes of Neil and Patterson discarded, amongst others who have left the club – it’s hard to argue with the results. As Everton fans, we should be aware by now that there’s no room for sentiment in football, should one aim to look up the table, rather than nervously down it.
So the Blues make the long trip to the Stadium of Light to face a genuine Premier League outfit, not the makeweight promotion sides we’ve seen flounder out of the division at the first time of asking, in the last two campaigns. The Black Cats – marooned in fourth place for the run-in to the Championship playoffs – effectively rested their starting side last term, losing five straight games before beating Coventry, but otherwise lost just one game at home all campaign (against Hull City, in February). They are yet to lose at the Stadium of Light this season, winning three and drawing one – when reduced to ten men for almost an hour – against Villa. The Midlanders are the best side they’ve faced on home turf, however, so the Toffees certainly are not without a chance of springing what could still be considered something of an upset.
Much depends on what David Moyes decides to do tonight, both in personnel and approach. I’d like to see some changes made in what’se become a predictable lineup, with the Jake O’Brien right back experiment brought to an end, and the Irishman moved centrally, alongside Tarkowski; Michael Keane has been solid, but he was not re-signed to compete for a spot in Everton’s starting team. James Garner would give support to Ndiaye and offer some balance on that flank. It’s time also to bring Carlos Alcaraz in and actually give him a start as a “number ten”. He’s more of a progressive attacking player than Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who’s better served deployed deeper. Up top, I’d go with Thierno Barry, who the club invested significant funds in mere months ago, and who has only started two league games to date.
Will Moyes make such radical alternations, though? Going off what we know of the veteran, and taking onboard his comments after the Spurs loss that the side was good in general play (which was not untrue, to a degree) and that he’s happy with O’Brien at right back, then it seems unlikely. In all likelihood, the team taking to the pitch tonight will be unchanged from Spurs, with the possible switch of Barry for Beto. There’s a slim possibility that Merlin Röhl – one of the summer signings that Moyes does like – could get the nod, but otherwise I can’t see anything radical.
As for the style of play, it’s become stale, and the early season surprise element has long worn off. The Blues are slow in build-up, heavily favouring the flanks and going through star man Grealish, with little threat from central midfield, zero effective overlap from fullback and an oft-isolated striker. The way to neutralize Everton is to block the centre of the park and force the ball wide, to either Grealish or Ndiaye, who will then be doubled up on. Both Blues fullbacks can be targeted with effect, and if the Toffees can be invited to press and then hit in transition, a slow backline and a midfield having to cover too much ground can be exploited.
I expect this will be Le Bris’ plan tonight: to invite the visitors on, press selectively, but aggressively to force turnovers in the middle third of the pitch, and to hurt them in transition, mixing that up with balls over the top for the pacy Idisor – who is a willing runner – to chase onto. And herein lies the problem, for it’s easier to see how Sunderland will win tonight, than it is for Everton, and this is because one team has been built to play effectively in a certain way, and the other has not. The Toffees are a team which is attempting an awkward transition to a possession side, from one which has played direct counterattacking football in recent years — without having either the players to do so, or having the necessary balance in the side.
Tonight, full of confidence and roared on by a raucous home support who are enjoying every minute being back in the top flight, after eight long years away, and under the lights, it all points to a win for the hosts. If Moyes rips up what’s increasingly looking like a tired, failing playbook, then the Blues may spring a surprise result, but sadly, I’m not convinced the manager will do so.
Prediction: Sunderland 2-0 Everton
Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com
