The Basics
Team: North Carolina Tar Heels
Location: Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Enrollment: 29,885
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (4-5)
Record: 4-5 (2-3)
Wins: Charlotte, Richmond, Syracuse, Stanford
Losses: TCU, UCF, Clemson,
Cal, UVA
Transfer portal rank: 9th (7 4-stars, 30 3-stars)
The Tar Heels have been a media lightning rod since hiring legendary NFL coach Bill Belichick in the offseason. Despite all the off-field stories and the pretty terrible start to the season, the Heels have started to figure things out a little bit recently. After losing to both Cal and Virginia on basically 1 play at the end of the game, UNC is currently on a 2-game win streak with wins over Syracuse and Stanford (both 3-7). Regardless of what you’ve heard about the Heels this season, this is a team that is a couple of favorable bounces away from being 4-1 in the ACC.
Offense
Points per game: 19.4 (122nd)
Yards per game: 293.1 (130th)
Run/pass split: 52 / 48
Rush yards per game: 115.1 (116th)
Pass yards per game: 178.0 (113)
3rd down conversions: 33% (118th)
Sacks allowed per game: 1.44 (36th)
Turnovers per game: 1.6 (104th)
On offense, the Deacs and the Tar Heels are actually having pretty similar seasons–poor quarterback play leading to an inability to put points on the board. In fact, in Bill Connelly’s latest ranking of all Power 4 QBs, Ashford/Purdie clock in at 61st (out of 67), while UNC’s Gio Lopez is just below them at 65. The article points out that Lopez is currently 108th in Total QBR, 105th in yards per dropback and 123rd in passing success rate–based on that, it’s really not hard to see why the Heels haven’t been able to crack 30 points against an FBS team this season.
Much like Wake Forest, UNC has sort of shrunk the passing game to a bunch of screen passes and quick hitting RPO plays due to the quarterback play–Ashford and Lopez are currently 14th and 15th in the ACC respectively in yards per attempt, typically meaning their passes don’t go very far. Also, like Wake, the Heels use a lot of presnap motion on their passing plays, especially from the running backs, to determine the coverage and make the defense adjust before the ball is snapped.
As far as receivers, the Heels only have 1 guy that is a big-time threat, and that’s Jordan Shipp. Shipp has caught 40 passes for 467 yards and 4 touchdowns this season. In the past 2 games, Shipp has caught 11 passes for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns, so it seems like he is starting to become a bigger part of the offense.
The only other receiver on the team with more than 11 receptions this season is Kobe Paysour, who has 20 catches for 286 yards and 1 touchdown.
The running game hasn’t been great for the Heels either this season, with UNC averaging just 115 rushing yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry this season. In their last game against Stanford, UNC managed to gain just 50 yards rushing on 27 carries. North Carolina has seemingly used the old Dave Clawson running back substitution strategy, as UNC has 4 players, including QB Gio Lopez, with over 50 rushing attempts so far this season. Only 1, Demon June, is averaging more than 4 yards per carry.
This is not an offense that is going to run up a ton of points on anyone, and it should not be an offense that gives Wake Forest any trouble if their defense continues to play the way that have played this season.
Defense
Points allowed per game: 21.3 (37th)
Yards allowed per game: 321.2 (28th)
Rush yards allowed per game: 102.6 (16th)
Pass yards allowed per game: 218.7 (67th)
3rd down defense: 42% (92nd)
Sacks per game: 3 (11th)
Turnovers Forced per game: 1.2 (76th)
The Tar Heel defense, on the other hand, has come a long way since giving up 48 points in the season opener to TCU and 28 points in the 1st quarter to Clemson at the start of October. Obviously, the level of the opponent has had an impact, but since their loss to Clemson, UNC is allowing just 15.75 points and 256.3 total yards per game over their last 4 games (Cal, UVA, Syracuse, Stanford).
This is yet another team that Wake could have trouble scoring against because UNC has been very good against the run this season. The only team that has run for over 150 yards against the Heels this season was TCU in the season opener–the Horned Frogs are also the only team to rush for more than 4.5 yards per carry against the Heels this season. In their last 4 games, UNC has allowed just 288 total rushing yards or 72 yards per game. The Deacs have really not run the ball well at all in their last 3 games, and the results have been 13, 7, and 16 points.
The defense on passing plays has also had a bit of a turnaround, mostly due to UNC’s newfound ability to get pressure on opposing QBs. In the last 4 games, UNC has recorded 20 total sacks, including a 6-sack game against Virginia and a 9-sack game against Stanford–the Heels only had 6 total sacks in the first 5 games of the season. That resurgence has been led by current ACC sack leader Melkart Abou Jaoude, who has picked up 8 of his 10 sacks in UNC’s last 3 games.
If Wake Forest is unable to establish the run game with Demond Claiborne, they are going to have to find someone to move the ball through the air. Last game’s performance did not exactly inspire confidence, but things are only going to be more difficult if whichever QB is in the game is suddenly under pressure every time he drops back.
This one is likely going to be a pretty low scoring affair between 2 teams with no offense and much better defenses. In a game like that, miscues are going to be crucial, so Wake cannot afford any costly turnovers or lapses on special teams. Wake must make UNC score by moving the ball down the field, something they have not proven they can do consistently. The first to 15 may win this one, so hopefully Wake can capitalize on a few big plays on special teams or running the ball with Claiborne to score enough points to win the game.
Go Deacs!
