Week 14 was relatively kind to the Detroit Lions when it comes to their overall playoff odds. Most importantly, the Lions took care of business against the Dallas Cowboys, which pushed Detroit’s playoff probabilities from around 25-30% to 45-55%, depending on which model you prefer. While the Lions didn’t get external help because of Seahawks and Rams wins, the Packers’ victory over the Bears was the favorable outcome, and now the Lions are just a game away from a spot in the postseason.
That’s the
good news. The bad news is this upcoming week looks like it could be rough for the Lions if the games go as expected. Before we get into it, a reminder of where things stand in the NFC playoff race:
- Rams: 10-3
- Packers: 9-3-1
- Eagles: 8-4 (play vs. Chargers on Monday)
- Buccaneers: 7-6
- Seahawks: 10-3
- 49ers: 9-4
- Bears: 9-4
8. Lions: 8-5
9. Panthers: 7-6
10. Cowboys: 6-6-1
Detroit is just a game back of the 49ers and Bears, a game-and-a-half behind the Packers, and two games behind the Rams and Seahawks. But based on Vegas odds of Week 15 games, they could fall an additional game behind all five of those teams. Here’s a look at each matchup, and the current odds (per FanDuel):
- Rams: 5.5-point favorites over Lions
- Bears: 7.5-point favorites over Browns
- 49ers: 12.5-point favorites over Titans
- Packers: 2.5-point (road) favorites over Broncos
- Seahawks: 10.5-point favorites over Colts
That’s a rough outlook, and if all of the favorites win in Week 15, the Lions’ playoff odds plummet to 26 percent, per the New York Times Playoff Simulator.
But I’ll finish with good news, because the outlook in Week 16 and beyond is much better. Even if all of the above outcomes happen, Detroit’s playoff odds would jump to 90% if they win their final remaining three games (Steelers, Vikings, Bears). On top of that, here are the matchups for those other NFC contenders in the final three weeks.
Week 16:
- Steelers vs. Lions
- Packers vs. Bears
- Colts vs. 49ers
- Rams vs. Seahawks
Week 17:
- Lions vs. Vikings
- Seahawks vs. Panthers
- Ravens vs. Packers
- Bears vs. 49ers
- Rams vs. Falcons
You have the Seahawks and Bears both playing NFC playoff contenders in Weeks 16-17. And all the Lions would need is for the Bears to lose one of those games, and Detroit would still make the playoffs with a 3-0 finish. Detroit could get even more help in Week 18, as the Seahawks face another big contender.
Week 18:
- Lions vs. Bears
- Seahawks vs. 49ers
- Packers vs. Vikings
- Cardinals vs. Rams
And let’s not completely count out a 49ers collapse. Finishing the season with the Colts, Bears, and Seahawks won’t be easy.
So, in short, things could mathematically look bleak after this upcoming week, especially if the Lions can’t pull off the upset in Los Angeles. But if they take care of business in the final three weeks—in games they are likely to be favored in—they will still have a very, very likely chance at getting in. In fact, any combination of 3-1 for the Lions that includes a win over the Bears gives Detroit a very high probability of making the postseason.
