The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots renew their rivalry Sunday afternoon in a key Week 4 AFC East showdown. The Bills have an opportunity to improve to 4-0 while handing the Patriots another loss that further harms their chances of repeating as AFC Champions.
Everyone knows well by now that the NFL is a week-to-week league, which means that it’s wise to consider teams 0-0 in a given matchup. Anything can happen, and to overlook New England despite their 1-2 record would be foolish. This is a team fresh
off a Super Bowl appearance, after all. Many will recall that New England got off to a similar start last season. Yet the Patriots, as well the Bills, are not the same team from the 2025 campaign.
What does all that mean for Sunday? There are quiet a few things that could happen, which include a few of my bold takes below.
Josh Allen lays waste to Patriots’ defense
Have you ever seen one of Josh Allen’s locked-in games? You know the type — most-often seen during playoff season. That’s what I’m channeling here for his work on Sunday. I don’t know that he’ll have an equal counterpart on the Patriots’ sideline akin to those matchups featuring co-star Patrick Mahomes, but I expect Allen will be acutely prepared to make an example of Mike Vrabel’s team.
Playing a factor here is his subpar performances in Week 3, but also something else… from last season. There’s no way Allen has forgotten that Drake Maye played in a Super Bowl eight months ago. If anything, that’s likely become a huge source of motivation for Allen. Step one is beating the Patriots in Week 4 (then hopefully again in Week 13), then later finishing ahead of them to reclaim the AFC East.
The only way the Bills knock off the Patriots is with Allen playing his best football. When all’s said and done, it’s probably going to take a season-long effort to do it. Is there a better player for the role than Allen?
Here’s what I see happening on Sunday…
He scores at least one touchdown as a rusher. Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in three straight games to begin the 2026 season, and Buffalo may need similar magic from him at the goal line in Week 4. Remember the last time New England came over to Highmark Stadium and Maye ran at-will against Buffalo’s defense? You know who else remembers it? Right.
It understandably isn’t bold to say Allen scores more touchdowns, in any capacity. It’s also not all that he’s going to accomplish Sunday afternoon. But, it is a pretty solid bet with FanDuel Sportsbook, where a “2 leg Same Game Parlay” featuring Allen and running back James Cook III as anytime touchdown scorers is at +249. FanDuel also lists odds featuring Allen seven separate times as part of an “Either Player — First Touchdown Scorer” scenario.
A key for Allen will be eliminating turnovers. Buffalo was lucky to escape with a win against the Los Angeles Chargers after Allen turned the ball over three times. New England’s defense is quite a bit better than the Chargers’ group, with the Patriots currently ranked fifth overall in total defense (LAC ranked 23). The Patriots have given up a total of six touchdowns through three games — matchups featuring quarterbacks Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, and Trevor Lawrence.
Despite what happened to Allen in Week 3, I see him rising to the challenge New England presents defensively. They’re a thorn in his side now thanks to last season, and I wouldn’t put it past Allen throwing for more yards alone than New England allows total on average (278.4 yards per game).
Thanks in large part to Maye’s recent struggles and the Patriots’ injury concerns in the secondary, oddsmakers at FanDuel see Allen as likely to finish with the most passing yards (-136). But how many yards makes for a bold prediction? Allen’s current over/under is set at O/U 242.2 (-114 at FanDuel), and I like him to flirt with over 100 more, as in 350 passing yards. That equates to the second-worst odds at present with FanDuel, where oddsmakers have Allen throwing for 350+ yards at +880. Football revenge is a dish well-complemented by plenty of yards.
Allen will also throw for at least two touchdowns, because one thing we all know is that football revenge is best served by touchdowns.
Khalil Shakir leads all WRs in Week 4
There was a time not so long ago when Khalil Shakir was Allen’s favorite target. It’s perhaps an era much of Bills Mafia would prefer leaving in the past due to the lack of options beyond Shakir at that point. However, Shakir helps lock Allen in early.
This season, Shakir has taken a backseat in terms of primary targets, but he’s been utilized more as a downfield receiver. It’s almost as though Shakir has become a forgotten man in the offense. His production and efficiency rate are down, with him making just eight catches on 15 targets for 94 yards and no touchdowns (per Pro Football Reference).
Last season through three games, Shakir caught 11 passes on 15 targets for 121 yards and one touchdown. He’s not that far off of last season’s pace, but I believe the longer pass plays to him have lowered Shakir’s production against outside defenders. They’ve also eaten into his targets between the down-and-distance markers.
To counter the trouble that happened in Week 3, I see Brady looking to get Allen and Shakir on the same page once again. That means some bubble screens and short passes to him in the slot, spaces where Shakir creates YAC thanks to his magical work in space. To keep the Patriots honest on defense, I expect the Bills to utilize Shakir at all levels of the field on Sunday (but hopefully not as a backfield runner in suboptimal situations).
The Chargers did well taking the Allen-to-Shakir bread & butter plays away, but look for them to return this weekend. In general, there should also be plenty of opportunity for some deep shots since New England will be without cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder injury), and I see that benefiting Shakir both directly (downfield) and indirectly (classic Shakir plays).
Trust me, it’s a bold take. As of publishing, FanDuel has Shakir’s over/under set at O/U 38.5 (-114). That’s a relatively low threshold, representative of his start to the season beginning with a high of 50 yards (Week 1), then 38 yards (Week 2), and just six yards (Week 3).
In two games against the Patriots last season, Shakir totaled 11 catches (14 targets) for 110 yards. Could he find his way to that type of production in the latest matchup alone?
Consider the options for “Most Receiving Yards” in Bills-Patriots currently with FanDuel Sportsbook, where Shakir has only the fifth-best odds (+700) behind teammates Moore (+320), Kincaid (+360), plus New England wideouts Mack Hollins (+460) and Romeo Doubs (+550).
Then remember that Moore is managing an AC-joint sprain, that Kincaid was hurt in some capacity in Week 3, and that the guy throwing footballs for New England looks broken. Shakir helps bring out the best in Allen, and that’s what should happen Sunday with him finishing as the game’s best receiver.
Overall, it’s an enticing bet to make for any of the listed players, who all boast plus odds with FanDuel:
Greg Rousseau ties or sets new PB for sacks/season in Week 4
In the midst of a Renaissance season, the newly minted AFC Defensive Player of the Month for September has been reinvented under new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. I truly love discussing Greg Rousseau. I’m the first to admit how wrong I was about his game-changing potential, thanks mostly to the way former head coach Sean McDermott deployed him in the trenches. With Rousseau now in an edge-rusher role as an outside linebacker, offenses often don’t quite know how to handle his unique skill set.
Rousseau has six sacks, three forced fumbles, 12 quarterback hits, and eight tackles for loss through three games. These numbers are near or better than many of his totals in the five seasons prior in McDermott’s system.
Yes, teams are going to begin scheming specifically to take Rousseau away, but new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is certain to find ways of freeing him up. The man affectionately known as “Groot” should continue playing at an All-Pro level in Week 4.
Last season in two games against New England, Rousseau had one sack in each game, five total quarterback hits, and two tackles for loss. The new 3-4 system favors Rousseau far better, so anticipate a productive first go against this year’s Patriots team. I like the chances Rousseau equals his career high in season sacks (8) by grabbing at least two against Maye on Sunday.
Think you’ve got what it takes to make a play with the Buffalo Bills in 2026? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook now to put it to the test!
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