On Monday night, the Michigan State Spartans took all their frustrations from a rough loss to Nebraska out on the visiting USC Trojans to the tune of a 29-point victory. On Thursday night, MSU will look to begin a new winning streak, and with no ranked opponents on the schedule until January 30, it seems likely that we can stockpile some wins over the next few weeks. Hopefully this year’s west coast trip does not, uh, trip us up. But it all begins tomorrow evening when the Northwestern Wildcats bring
their 0-3 conference record (8-6 overall) into the Breslin.
Prop bet: over/under 3.5 times that BTN will show Pat Fitzgerald in the crowd and mention he is the former NW coach. I’ll wager the over.
As far as the guys currently employed by Northwestern (yes, I am calling college athletes employees now), their basketball team has a very simple scouting report. Like many a Wildcat roster of the past, this year’s version features that one guy who you know is going to be the biggest, by a significant margin, scoring threat, and there may not be much an opponent can do about it. This year, that guy in Nick Martinelli, the Big Ten’s leading scorer at 23.0 PPG, and just 0.1 off the national leaders. In 13 games played this year (he missed NW’s game against Butler), Martinelli has scored double-digits in all but one game, has reached 20 points ten times, and has two 32-point performances (against Ohio State and Howard) to his credit. And it is not a matter of him stuffing stats against the lesser teams on the schedule; in four of their six games against major-conference opponents, Martinelli has gone for at least 25 points.
Aside from their star senior, Northwestern has a couple other players averaging double digit scoring – point guard Jayden Reid (11.6 PPG) and their 6’11” man in the middle, Arrinten Page (15.0). Page and Martinelli share the team lead in rebounding with matching 6.5 marks while Reid, predictably, leads NW in assists at 5.4.
A trio of names have been getting the bulk of the minutes on the wings, though only a couple of them are making any considerable contributions to the box score. Tre Singleton and Angelo Ciaravino are averaging 7.5 and 6.9 PPG along with 4.7 and 4.3 rebounds, respectively. The third significant wing player is Jordan Clayton. However, his 18.8 minutes per game (sixth on the team) are only leading to 2.9 PPG, and he does not average over 2 in any other statistical category.
Northwestern had a decent start to the season, with a victory of South Carolina getting them to 5-1. Their lone early loss was to Virginia in a neutral location. Since then, however, NW has dropped 5 of 8, with the three wins all coming against mid- or low-majors (Jackson State, Valpo, and Howard). All the losses were to major conference teams (assuming we still count Big East teams as major). To their credit, though, five of their six losses on the year have been by six or fewer points (5, 5, 12, 4, 3 and 6 to be precise), so this could be an issue of just not being able to close out close games. And that makes sense as this team does not have a high degree of familiarity with one another in this young season. While Martinelli was a Wildcat last year, Reid and Page are new transfers to the program, and Tre Singleton is a freshman. Clayton and Ciaravino are both back from last year, though their developments appear to be going in opposite directions.
In addition to having the Big Ten’s highest scorer, NW also has among the conference’s best field goal percentages. For the year, the Wildcats are hitting 49% of their shots, good for 5th in conference. That said, they actually have the B1G’s worst 3-point percentage at 31.5%; appropriately, they attempt the fewest at just 19.7 per contest. This could work to MSU’s advantage. With the Spartans already being tough and disciplined in their three-point defense, if Northwestern’s game plan is to attack our interior, they may find themselves having a very tough time as, aside from Page, none of their big-minute players are taller than 6’7”. Carson Cooper and Jaxon Kohler, as well as Cam Ward and Jesse McCulloch, should be able to control the low post and collect rebounds and blocks at will.
One part of the Northwestern game this season that MSU will need to solve is their reluctance to give up turnovers. They are tops in the Big Ten at 8.8, again just 0.1 from the nation’s leader. Their starting point guard, Reid, predictably has the most, but that mark is just 2.1. Fastbreak points and points off turnovers could be lower than we are used to seeing. Our half-court sets are going to have to be efficient, and hopefully we can still rush it up court a few times for some quick points after a NW basket.
In all, this is not a challenging opponent on paper, as indicated by their 8-6 record. With the home court advantage and with some good energy conceivably pumping through the players’ veins after the blowout win a few nights earlier, Michigan State should be able to exert their will and pull away as the game goes on to stay within a game of the conference leaders.
What does TOC Nation think? What are you looking to see in this game? Anyone care to make a score prediction?
