The preaching out of Gillette Stadium this week has been clear as day: thou shall not underestimate the Saints.
Even though the New England Patriots are entering Week 6 off back-to-back wins, including last Sunday’s primetime takedown of the then-unbeaten Bills in Buffalo, they are making sure not to take their one-win opponent lightly. That being said, they are favorites for a reason.
Besides the difference in record, the Patriots as a whole have simply performed better than the Saints. Yes, they
are coming off a win themselves — a 26-14 victory over the New York Giants — but they have yet to perform at a consistent level this year.
This is also reflected in our head-to-head comparison of the two teams.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Saints pass defense: Five weeks into the season, Drake Maye has shown that he is not just be one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in football but also one of the most efficient. He will get a chance to build additional momentum this week against a Saints pass defense that may be ninth in yards allowed but is only 25th in EPA per play and middle-of-the-pack in several other categories such as interceptions (13th), pressure rate (15th) and net yards per attempt (19th). With Maye and a rejuvenated Stefon Diggs leading the way, New England should be able to move the ball quite well through the air on Sunday. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Saints pass offense: There is a question mark over standout cornerback Christian Gonzalez, and no denying the Patriots pass defense is better with him in the lineup. If he plays, New England would have a substantial edge over a Saints offense led by quarterback Spencer Rattler. If the second-team All-Pro is a no-show on Sunday, New Orleans is in a better situation but there is still uncertainty about the unit’s ability to string plays together and hold up against a pass rush that will be getting starter K’Lavon Chaisson back after a one-week absence. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Saints run defense: The Saints have been pretty “meh” across the board this season, but one area stands out relative to the rest: their run defense, anchored in part by old friend Davon Godchaux, has been quite stout so far. The other side of this battle, meanwhile, is a work in progress. The Patriots are dead-last in the NFL in EPA per run, and will now move forward without Antonio Gibson. On paper, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson have the potential to be a productive one-two punch, but they have yet to show it. | Edge: Saints
Patriots run defense vs. Saints rushing offense: Led by the ever-reliable Alvin Kamara, the Saints have been one of the most active rushing teams in the NFL so far this season — they are seventh in attempts through Week 5 — but not necessarily particularly effective: they are ranked 21st in yards per attempt and 23rd in EPA per run. New England’s run defense, meanwhile, is ranked fourth in both categories and just managed to keep a powerful Bills run game in check. On paper, the Patriots should win this battle even though Anfernee Jennings being out is less than ideal when it comes to setting a hard edge. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The Patriots are tasked with replacing the aforementioned Antonio Gibson as their kickoff returner following his ACL tear, but their special teams operation still looks superior across the board. Whether it is Andy Borregales (87.5%) having a higher field goal rate than Blake Grupe (66.7%), Bryce Baringer and the punt coverage team having a clear advantage in both gross (+2.4) and net yards per punt (+5.2), or Marcus Jones again looking like one of the top punt returners in the game, the game’s third phase is where New England could gain a hidden-yards advantage. That said, Saints punt returner Rashid Shaheed is no slouch either as evidenced by his seventh-ranked average of 15.2 yards among returners with at least one runback per game. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
The Patriots and Saints are in the same boat as far as their coaching situation is concerned: Mike Vrabel and Kellen Moore are both in their first year with their respective teams. So, why do we give the edge to New England? It all starts with experience both at head coach and at the lower levels. In addition, the Patriots’ operation overall has just looked a lot smoother so far this season — a testament to coaching. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
The Saints may be coming off their first win of the season, but their 1-4 start was not an accident either: they, like the Patriots, are a team still in the process of building and finding itself. However, it looks like New England is further ahead in this process and top-to-bottom the better of the two teams at the moment. They still need to show it on Sunday, and avoid falling into the dreaded trap after two quality wins, but their status as 3.5-point road favorites is, in our humble opinion, very much justified.
