One of these days we’ll have a ‘Sunday fun day’ as Jets fans, but it probably won’t be this one. The 7-1 Bills have won four straight games and are coming to MetLife Stadium to face the 2-7 New York Jets, who have lost four straight. Jets coach Aaron Glenn claims the Jets are ‘on the cusp’ of miraculously winning games despite leading for 0 seconds against a Dolphins team that hadn’t had a lead all season and hasn’t won a game since the Jets.
All indications for this one are brutal. The Jets’ current
losing streak has been by an average of 9.5 points per game, while the Bills’ winning streak has been by an average of 12.3 points per game. Specifically, this Jets/Bills matchup in the Aaron Glenn era is way worse: The Bills have won by an average of 23.5(!) points. The second matchup didn’t even include Josh Allen; he was a healthy scratch, and they still handed the Jets a 35-8 loss.
Of course, it is any given Sunday, so if you’re looking for hopeful data, the Bills are winless against the AFC East this season. Yes, it was just one game, but so far, that one divisional game is the one blemish on the 2026 season. Also, before they faced Carson Wentz and the cluster of Vikings’ QBs this week, the Bills’ defense was allowing 28.5 points per game. The 2026 Jets showed they can compete in shootouts; is this the week they finally win a shootout? Probably not.
But there is a chance! And for that, let’s discuss what to look for this game:
Red Dead Redemption
I very rarely recycle headings from the weekly previews I’ve been doing on various sites for the last 6 seasons, but this header is too good and too applicable to the current situation to leave it out. The Jets’ biggest current problem, by far, is scoring in the red zone. What makes this so frustrating is that they have no problem getting into the red zone. In these last few games, they’ve been a fantastic offense, but as soon as they cross that 20-yard line, the sacks and miscues are abundant.
I mentioned heading into the Raiders game that the Jets were the only team to be in the red zone 20+ times and have fewer than 10 red zone touchdowns. At that time, that was the second-worst red zone TD percentage in the NFL. Since then, the Browns have finally reached the red zone 20+ times (23) and scored only 9 red zone touchdowns, making them the only team in the NFL with those metrics. The Jets are still second-worst, though, at a terrible 11/27 (40.7%).
This also means that in the Chiefs and Raiders games specifically, the Jets were 2-7 (28.6%) in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. This does not include the two drives where the Jets got the ball in plus territory, moved it a combined -1 yard, and kicked two field goals (1/2). This is a serious problem for this talented unit.
The revelation of the Average Separation Score from Fantasy Points Data has changed how I view this phenomenon. It’s easy to blame Frank Reich because his job title is Offensive Coordinator, and I’ve already shown my appreciation for Geno Smith, but when the top three receivers creating separation this season all belong to the Jets and the Jets offense is still struggling, something is clearly amiss.
Michael Nania of Jets X-Factor had a great film breakdown of Omar Cooper Jr. getting open but not being targeted and gave Frank Reich credit without discrediting Geno. Allow me to be the first to seriously question Geno’s vision and ability to make the right read at the right time. This isn’t me saying he’s making bad reads; he’s clearly having a solid year with a 67.5% completion and only three picks, but could he be making better reads?
Given the film breakdowns I’ve seen and how open the Jets’ receivers have been, it’s fair to blame Geno Smith. Reich has done his job of getting guys open; can Geno hit the right guy at the right time to put points on the board? Preferably 6s instead of 3s? I’ll come to his aid again in pointing out that Adonai Mitchell caught none of his seven targets and had some bad drops. Still, since this problem has been an issue all season and not just this past game, I have to go back to the one constant.
Not only is he not throwing to the open receiver, but he’s taking so long to process the field that he’s taking sacks in the red zone. Can Geno speed up his process, make the ‘right read’ over a ‘good read,’ and score TDs against a team that allows TDs on 63.3% of its defensive red zone trips?
Running Train
Perhaps the safest week-to-week bet any of you bettors could make is the over on the opposing RB1’s rushing yards against the Jets. Last week, Kenneth Walker’s line was 93.5, and he dominated for 102 rushing yards and three(!) total touchdowns.
This week, James Cook’s line is 91.5, and he’s coming off a 107-yard performance against the Vikings. Fun fact: Cook has rushed for 75+ yards and scored a touchdown in every game besides Week 1, so I’m ready to bet the farm on 100 yards and a touchdown this Sunday. I might sprinkle some dollars on 2+ TDs as well.
When will the Jets’ run defense get better? I’ve seen zero indication that the play calling or personnel will change in any way to plug the clear holes on this team. It was still an issue with T’Vondre Sweat on the field; his absence certainly isn’t helping. Maybe they can finally bounce back next week against the struggling Chargers and the likes of Omarion Hampton? Probably not.
Too Legit to Quit?
I have no stats for this one. This is a pure eye test that should help continue writing the story of the Aaron Glenn Era. I’ve learned there are still plenty of fans who still think Glenn can be part of the solution for this franchise. It’s been reported that the Jets operated during the trade deadline as if this were indeed a possibility, and they’re giving him every chance to prove Woody right.
The final nail in the coffin, in my opinion, would be losing the players in the locker room. Sure, last year you can blame players as “bad apples” and suggest addition by subtraction with the trades of Quinnen Williams, Sauce Gardner, Jermaine Johnson, etc. Now, these are Glenn’s guys; the visible sideline frustrations of Armand Membou, Geno Smith, and Garrett Wilson are all guys who were either brought in by Glenn or extended during the Glenn era.
It is no longer about bad apples; now it’s time to blame the tree. Let’s see if the players Glenn has chosen remain committed to his vision, however shaky it is. We already saw a Glenn team have no fight – the entire months of December and January last year. November would be fairly early to give up, but given the sky-high percentage of fans who’ve already given up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the players follow suit.
I’m looking for body language, sideline interactions, and, of course, general play to see how this team’s morale looks. Let’s go Jets!
