The New England Patriots’ season is far from over, but they will close the book on its first chapter on Sunday. Hosting the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium, the team of head coach Mike Vrabel will play
its final regular season game of the year — one that could end up having major playoff implications.
Before any of that comes into play, however, the Patriots need to take care of business and win a second game against their division rivals this season. They should be able to do so, not just because they are entering the game as 11.5-point favorites: as a look at our head-to-head comparison between the two teams shows, New England is simply the better of the two squads at the moment.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Dolphins pass defense: Coming off a five-touchdown performance against the New York Jets, MVP favorite Drake Maye will be going up against another suspect pass defense on Sunday. The Dolphins, after all, are ranked in the bottom third in several statistical categories related both to coverage and pass rush. And even though New England will not be at full strength — WR Mack Hollins (IR) and LG Jared Wilson are both out — they should still be able to move the ball well against Miami, particularly with two starters returning as well: left tackle Will Campbell is back and so is wideout Kayshon Boutte. All in all, this is a favorable matchup for Maye and company. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Dolphins pass offense: Similar to their pass defense, the Dolphins pass offense has also been uneven this year — to a point that Tua Tagovailoa was benched after the team was officially eliminated from playoff contention in Week 15. Since then, seventh-round draft pick Quinn Ewers has served as the team’s QB1. Ewers has been solid, ranking 16th among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play over the last two weeks (0.059). That being said, he is still a rookie going against a defense capable of throwing different coverage looks and pressure packages at him. Until he shows he can produce consistently in such an environment, we are giving the advantage to New England’s defense. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Dolphins run defense: The sample size is relatively small, but still: the Patriots are ranked third in the NFL in EPA per run play since their Week 14 bye (0.171). The eye test confirms this; New England’s ground game has performed well recently and with both Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson available. On Sunday, the group will go up against a Dolphins defense that has been up and down versus the run this year, and over the same three-week period is ranked 23rd in EPA (0.042). With Miami likely worried about the pass game, Stevenson and Henderson might be finding some openings. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots run defense vs. Dolphins rushing offense: We originally considered giving the edge to Miami in this matchup, but two developments this week made us change our mind. The first was Patriots defensive tackle Milton Williams upping his workload in practice and eventually being activated off of injured reserve; his presence should help shore up a run defense that was leaky at time over the last few weeks. Even more consequential for the matchup, however, might be running back De’Von Achane’s injury status. Achane is the Dolphins’ lead running back, and responsible for 68% of their rushing yards as well as a team-leading 1,838 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns this season. Him being doubtful because of a shoulder ailment gives New England a slight edge, in our estimation. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The Patriots and Dolphins are relatively evenly matched in the kicking game, but the visitors have still performed better across the board so far in 2025. New England might have a statistical edge in kickoff coverage and with Marcus Jones as one of the league’s most explosive punt returners, but Miami has them out-performed in most other important categories — from field goal and extra point percentage, to yards per punt, to missed tackles. | Edge: Dolphins
Coaching
Mike Vrabel and company have been rock-solid preparing their team and making in-game decisions so far this season, allowing New England to reach 13 wins in their first 16 games so far. Their 17th will see them go up against an experienced staff led by a head coach, Mike McDaniel, in his fourth year at the job. However, unlike in the past, McDaniel and company did not seem to have answers at the ready at all times. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
As can be seen, the Patriots should be able to handle their business on Sunday and come away victoriously against their AFC East rivals for a second time this season. That being said, while we are giving the home team the edge in most of our categories, the Dolphins are more than capable of putting up a fight. Not only do division games tend to follow their own rules at times, Miami also still has players capable of making an impact on the contest — even though not all of them will be available on Sunday.
