Well once again, another week another loss for our New York Jets. As the long-term future becomes more and more unclear for this team from a coaching standpoint, one thing we continue to get more insight
on is where the Jets will be picking in 2026. We will do things a little bit differently this week and we will look at a graphic put together by @Doug_Analytics on Twitter who specializes in NFL Draft strength-of-schedule and potential pick outcomes to take a look at where the Jets might be selecting this April. The methodology is similar as he simulates the rest of the season 50,000 times to provide a distribution on where each team is likely to finish.
Prior to the Sunday Night Football game, here was the distribution on where the Jets are likely to pick:
As you can see, the Jets’ projected pick is becoming more and more clear the closer we get to the end of the year. As of now, the Jets are very likely to pick somewhere between picks 1–6, with better than a 90% chance to land in the top five. Even if the Jets somehow won out and upset both the Patriots and Bills, they still could not pick any higher than #8.
According to the chart, the Jets are most likely to pick between #2 and #4. The single most likely outcome is picking #3, which happens 35.4% of the time, followed by #2 at 25.4% and #4 at 18.4%. There is still some hope for the #1 pick, but that outcome only happens about 5% of the time.
What remains unclear with this metric is how injuries and late-season personnel decisions are factored in. With a power rating being used across 50,000 simulations, the Jets should almost certainly see a downgrade given that they’re playing Brady Cook at quarterback, who has struggled, to put it mildly.
For Jets fans who are focused on selecting a quarterback this coming April, there’s still plenty to monitor. The two biggest threats remain the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders.
In the event of a tie with the Jets, the Browns would pick ahead of them due to SOS tiebreakers. As the chart shows, Cleveland has the highest probability of picking in the top two, doing so in roughly 58% of outcomes. They’ll be underdogs in both remaining games, hosting the Steelers this week before heading to Cincinnati in Week 18. They’re currently 4.5-point underdogs against Pittsburgh, but there’s a non-zero chance that game ends up meaning very little for the Steelers if the Ravens lose to the Packers on Saturday and Pittsburgh clinches the division. It’s also worth watching how the Bengals handle Joe Burrow’s health over the final two weeks. It seems likely he plays, but they’ve been volatile all season regardless. If the Browns do end up in the top two, it’s very hard to imagine them not selecting a quarterback, though it’s not a lock.
The other two teams to watch are the Raiders and the Giants, who conveniently play each other this week. There’s a strong chance this game directly impacts who ends up picking #1. The Raiders are at home and are slight favorites due to the Giants’ recent struggles. If the Giants end up picking in the top two, it’s more likely than not that they would look to trade the pick given Jaxson Dart’s presence on the roster. That said, with a new regime likely coming in, it’s not out of the question that they move on from Dart if they fall in love with one of Mendoza or Moore.
The Giants finish the season at home against Dallas, a team that suddenly has nothing to play for after being eliminated from postseason contention. The Giants will be a live underdog in that game, but they’re still more likely to lose than win.
As for the Raiders, it’s not out of the question that they’re favored in Week 18 when they host a banged-up Chiefs team. Kansas City is in free-fall, dealing with a long list of injuries and now down to their third-string quarterback. They look very much like a veteran team that has checked out, especially with no playoff hopes remaining. For Jets fans hoping for a quarterback, rooting for the Raiders to finish strong could be important.
If the Jets, Giants, and Raiders finish with the same number of wins, it will likely come down to SOS tiebreakers. As things stand today, the Giants would pick ahead of both teams, with the Jets picking ahead of the Raiders, but it’s extremely close. The Eagles–Bills game next week actually becomes somewhat pivotal. An Eagles win would boost the Giants’ and Raiders’ SOS while lowering the Jets’ due to a Bills loss. That said, if Buffalo loses and the Patriots beat the Jets next week, there’s a non-zero chance the Bills rest starters in Week 18. It’s not something Buffalo typically does however. Josh Allen, in particular, has one of the longest consecutive-start streaks in the league, but it’s still something to keep an eye on.
As for the Jets themselves, assuming Buffalo is at full strength in Week 18, this looks very much like a team that won’t win another game. They’re currently 13.5-point home underdogs against New England and have once again committed to Brady Cook. Injuries continue to pile up, and this increasingly feels like a team prioritizing long-term evaluation over winning games. If Buffalo is full-go, the Jets will likely be two-touchdown underdogs in Buffalo, a place where they’ve struggled mightily in recent years.
In what has been a miserable season, there’s still plenty to watch from a tank perspective.
