2025 In A Discarded-On-The-Dugout-Floor Nutshell
Tanner Houck didn’t look like the ace he was in 2024, struggling tremendously in every start he made in 2025 before eventually finding the root of his mechanical issues: a flexor tear that required Tommy
John surgery.
The Good
I want to be diplomatic in that I cannot imagine the pain Tanner Houck must have been playing through in order for his season to end in a Tommy John surgery. However, to find any postive contributions the 29-year-old made to the team, you’d have to go back to 2024, when he looked like a bonafide option at the top of the rotation and enjoyed his first All-Star nod. Houck had 154 strikeouts across 178 innings, logging a 3.12 ERA, good for eleventh in MLB. Houck also keeps the ball in in the infield: his ground ball percentage has been increasing annually until it reached the 93rd percentile in all of baseball in 2024, and even remained in the 80th percentile for 2025 despite Houck’s struggles. In a good year, he can sit squarely behind Garrett Crochet in a functional rotation.
The Bad
In 2025? I have at least seven things to list here, and the biggest one is the aforementioned flexor tear. The other six come within his nine starts. Here they are, in order:
March 28: 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 2 K
April 3: 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K
April 9: 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K (this one, we’ll take)
April 14: 2 1/3 IP, 12 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 1 K
April 20: 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K (this one was fine, too)
April 26: 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 6 K
May 1: 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K
May 7: 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
May 12: 2 1/3 IP, 11 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 0 K
That was good for a 8.12 ERA. He was tied for last in WAR among all qualified starters before he was shelved. And, in fact, April 14 and May 12 landed him in the record books: no pitcher had allowed 11 earned runs in less than 3 innings of work twice, ever. EVER – and he still had an out to spare in both outings. It couldn’t have gotten much worse for the former first round pick, and so when he returns from injury, he’ll hope to return more to 2024 form.
Best Game or Moment
He can still strike guys out. Here’s him doing that seven times on April 20 against the White Sox.
The Big Question
What will Houck look like when he returns?
He never lost his ground ball ability even at his worst, so one is left to hope that he’ll continue to excel at that after he returns. Houck is among a full staff of arms that are coming back from surgery, alongside fellow injured pitchers Hunter Dobbins (who suffered an ACL tear), Richard Fitts, and Kutter Crawford. The 2025 season started with the Red Sox having too much rotation depth, relegating Dobbins to the Worcester roster despite a strong Spring Training and ended up with Connelly Early pitching game 3 of the Wild Card round. Besides a freak accident where his orbital bone got jammed with a line drive, Houck has played through pain before, including some shoulder discomfort in September of that 2024 season, and has mostly stayed off the injury list. The best ability is sometimes availability… at least for guys that can keep an opposing lineup at bay for a few innings, and there’s evidence that with a functioning flexor, Houck would be able to do that.
2026 and Beyond
There might be no 2026, at least not until late August, so we’re looking beyond. Tanner Houck is not a free agent until the end of 2027. This is notable because, prior to that 2025 showing, the team had failed in contract extension talks. This is not praise on the Front Office nor is it a justification for them not to extend a guy who was looking promising in 2024, but they surely dodged a potential bullet on an extension. Turning 30 in June of next year, Houck is now entering a very pressing stage of his career. He’s now… and I had to check this twice to verify… the longest-tenured member of the Red Sox. If he takes long enough to return in 2026, it’s then up to Houck’s 2027 performance — and health — to determine what type of deal he gets for his age-32-season. If he comes back in 2024 form, that may create more questions than answers, but it’ll be a good problem to have.
