March Madness is here and the Virginia Cavaliers are front and center in the fold, having earned the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region. Here is a glimpse at the full quadrant, with first round game times and locations:
No. 1 Michigan vs No. 16 Howard — Thursday at 7:10 pm (Buffalo, NY)
No . 8 Georgia vs No. 9 Saint Louis — Thursday at 9:45 pm (Buffalo, NY)
No. 5 Texas Tech vs No. 12 Akron — Friday at 12:40 pm (Tampa, FL)
No. 4 Alabama vs No. 13 Hofstra — Friday at 3:15 pm (Tampa, FL)
No. 6 Tennessee vs
No. 11 SMU/Miami U — Friday at 4:25 pm (Philadelphia, PA)
No. 3 Virginia vs No. 14 Wright State — Friday at 1:50 pm (Philadelphia, PA)
No. 7 Kentucky vs No. 10 Santa Clara — Friday at 12:15 pm (St. Louis, MO)
No. 2 Iowa State vs No. 15 Tennessee State — Friday at 2:50 pm (St. Louis, MO)
The first round draw
Despite Vegas projecting the Wahoos as an 18.5 point favorite over Wright State, and the predictive models offering a similar sentiment, we know all too well that any first round game should not be taken for granted. The Cavaliers are still looking for their first NCAA Tournament win since the title game in 2019, having lost twice in the Round of 64 as a four seed, and an additional time in the First Four.
Of course, while this situational context is crucial in the eyes of the fan, it is irrelevant when looking through an analytical lens. Ryan Odom teams play with a completely different style than Tony Bennett’s squads did, and this year’s Virginia unit offers a high floor, at the very least. While a team like UVA, who takes nearly half of their field goals from beyond the arc is naturally susceptible to variance, their top-10 offensive rebounding rate nationally provides a sustainable safety net. That should go a long way against Wright State, who is 251st in the country in average height, per KenPom.
As both the regular season and postseason Horizon League champions, the Raiders should not be taken lightly. Clint Sergent’s Raiders team shoots the three efficiently and has skilled athletes in the frontcourt that contribute on both ends. With that said, Virginia has had minimal issues with teams outside KenPom’s top 100, and when the ‘Hoos were occasionally challenged, they responded and survived.
More in-depth coverage of this first round game is to come.
The path to the second weekend
If Virginia takes care of business against Wright State, their second round meeting would be with either Tennessee, SMU, or Miami (OH). Each of these three teams could realistically advance and each poses a unique threat.
The Cavaliers have already seen SMU in January when they survived a late surge from the Mustangs to grab a 72-68 road victory. While they were held to just a combined 25 points on 9-for-31 shooting in that contest, SMU’s guard duo of Boopie Miller and B.J. Edwards still pose matchup problems with their quickness. Both Edwards and forward Corey Washington are listed as questionable for Wednesday night and their statuses will be a huge factor.
On the other side of that First Four contest are the Miami RedHawks, who do not profile favorably in predictive models, but have amassed an impressive 31-1 record. Considering that SMU will be Miami’s highest-seeded opponent of the season to date, they are still largely an unknown. With that said, a potential win over the Mustangs, and then over Tennessee, would prove their worth as a legitimate force. The RedHawks can absolutely catch fire offensively, operating at a top-50 tempo with the country’s fourth-highest effective field goal percentage, thanks in large part to MAC Player of the Year, Peter Suder.
Regardless, Virginia’s toughest potential matchup would clearly be the Volunteers. As previously discussed, the ‘Hoos can typically survive a cold shooting night as a team because of their elite presence on the offensive glass. However, Tennessee’s best trait is their frontcourt size, which has propelled them to second place on the SEC rebounding leaderboard, only behind Florida. The Volunteers also have a star guard in Jakobi Gillespie, who has now been an all-conference player in three different leagues.
Because Virginia obviously does a lot of things very well in their own right, especially on the defensive end, they may be favored in all three potential matchups. The ‘Hoos would need to bring their A-game against Tennessee in particular, though.
The Midwest Region overall
In the bracketology reveals leading up to Selection Sunday, Virginia was hugging the boarder between the three seed-line and the four-line. Aside from getting a slightly weaker first round opponent, the biggest advantage to being selected as a three seed was avoiding top-seeded Michigan’s path until the Elite Eight.
This season, there has been a sizable gap between the one seeds and the rest of the pack, and Michigan is very much not an exception. The Wolverines rotate three dominant bigs — Yaxel Landeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson — all of whom bring complementary skill sets to the table. Throw in four different guards who are averaging over 37% from three and you have yourself a 31-3 record through one of the most loaded regular season schedules in the country.
Needless to say, to be the best, you have to beat the best, but I’m sure Odom is content to postpone that challenge until he potentially gets a few tournament wins under his belt.
