Some controversy around Don Mattingly’s use of his closer in yesterday’s NL Wildcard game vs. the Braves should provide some opportunity for conversation for the Guardians leading into their American League Division Series beginning this weekend.
Entering the bottom of the seventh inning with a 3-2 lead, Mattingly brought Jhoan Duran in to face numbers 9, 1 and 2 in the Atlanta Braves’ order. He then brought him out again in the eighth to get hitters 3, 4 and 5 in the order. The internet is now full
of folks calling Mattingly’s decision to go to his closer earlier a mistake because Duran ended up giving up a 3-run, go-ahead homer to Austin Riley in the 8th after the 5th and 6th hitters reach (via infield hit and a hit-by-pitch). But, I don’t think that’s quite fair to Mattingly… or to Duran… or to any team that might take a similar strategic path.
Duran came in with a narrow one-run lead and got five straight outs from the most dangerous hitters in the Atlanta lineup. He then gave up incredibly weak contact that unluckily resulted in a hit. At this point, someone should have been warming and getting ready as quickly as possible. Said pitcher would have had six pitches and a potential mound visit to start to get ready before the fateful Riley at-bat. However, I suspect Mattingly had a longer leash on Duran than optimal because the Phillies’ bullpen as a whole is not great.
I would argue that Mattingly’ process – despite the bad result – was sound. The most important thing to do in a playoff game in which you have a lead in the 7th or later is make sure that your best reliever throws meaningful pitches against your opponent’s best hitters. He accomplished this and got 5 out of 6 hitters out. At that point, I think it would have made sense to have the next best option ready to come in the game and remove Duran, not only because it was an unfamiliar situation for their closer but because there were two outs and you’re asking for one more out with a runner on first. Additionally, no one other than the six hitters who have faced him gets a rep against Duran to help them later in the series (though Atlanta is very familiar with the Phillies).
I hope Stephen Vogt can have conversations with his bullpen about similar situations. If the Guardians had the exact same situation, going to Cade Smith there makes perfect sense and guarantees he sees the best hitters at the end of the game with a lead. Smith also has experience going multiple innings and being the “fireman” in the past. The off days of the series should also allow the Guardians to be aggressive with Smith and their other best arms as they will have time to recover in-between appearances.
I do not mean to dismiss the importance of reliever comfort and role establishment. If the team truly believes that Smith being jarred from the role of pitching the 8th into the 9th would negatively affect his mental status, don’t do it. However, from everything we know of Cade, I doubt this is the case. The one thing to avoid at all costs is losing a lead in the 7th or later without Cade Smith facing your opponent’s greatest threats. Mattingly made sure to avoid it yesterday and I hope the Guardians will as well in the series to come.
