The Atlanta Falcons are about to get their bye week, but they have to go through the Kansas City Chiefs first. The difference between rolling into the bye at 3-7 with the Vikings and Lions looming after it and being a 4-6 in the same boat is a potentially significant one, given that the NFC South is extremely weak and Atlanta’s final five games are against the Browns, Commanders, and their division rivals.
But winning this game is going to be difficult, and more difficult for trading away Jessie Bates.
Can our beloved Falcons stop being so thoroughly mediocre and triumph over an AFC juggernaut? For better or worse, we’ll find out.
Here’s what you need to know about the Week 10 matchup.
Team rankings
That’s a big gulf!
The Falcons, by the eye test, the more advanced statistics, and the high level ones I share every week here, are a 3-6 football team that looks like a 3-6 football team. By all those same measures, the Chiefs are one of the ten best teams in football. If this isn’t an ass kicking—and especially if the Falcons actually win—it will be a real triumph.
How the Chiefs have changed
This team is a diminished version of the Chiefs that briefly ruled the NFL. That’s not to say that Kansas City is not still a contender—they are—or that they aren’t still one of the best teams in the AFC. It is to say that they’re no longer a juggernaut.
They did re-imagine the offense by signing Kenneth Walker to a massive free agency deal, and Walker’s been one of the handful of great running backs in the league this year. Before this, the Chiefs had relied on a hodgepodge of lackluster backs, so the lift he’s given them has helped offset a still-frustrating passing game. The team also acquired Justin Fields to back up Patrick Mahomes, and there’s a non-zero chance we’ll see Fields this week with Mahomes banged up. Eric Bieniemy is also back in the offensive coordinator role, and the offense has been noticeably better balanced than it has been in recent years.
Their draft has delivered plenty of needed young talent, even if the production has been mixed to this point. Mansoor Delane looks excellent but has only appeared in five games, defensive linemen R Mason Thomas and Peter Woods have real promise even if Woods has largely struggled, Jadon Canady is providing surprisingly strong coverage at cornerback early in his career, and running back Emmett Johnson and wide receiver Cyrus Allen have produced in their limited opportunities to this point. It’s a good class that could pay real dividends down the line.
Finally, the Chiefs made a bit of a splash trade, grabbing wide receiver Josh Downs from the selling Colts. Downs is not a standout but has been a consistently productive player on some lousy Colts teams, and is now joining up as a clear top option for Mahomes once he gets his feet under him in Kansas City.
Generally, though, you know what this Chiefs team looks like. Andy Reid is the coach, Mahomes is the quarterback, the receivers are all varying degrees of frustrating, and stalwarts like Travis Kelce and Chris Jones are still puttering along at an impressively high level. The Chiefs are still very good because of that, but they’re better health and more cohesion away from being a great team.
What to know about Week 10
So much swings on whether the Falcons will see Patrick Mahomes or not. Justin Fields can kill Atlanta with his legs and avoids turnovers, but there’s a massive drop-off from Mahomes to him that will impact an already inconsistent Chiefs passing attack.
That’s important because of what Joe Burrow and Caleb Williams have done to the Falcons’ secondary, which is now down a playmaking presence in Bates. Both quarterbacks annihilated Atlanta’s coverage with sharp ball placement, good throws on the move, and effective movement in the face of pressure, and Mahomes can manage all that. The chief (sorry) difference here is that while the Bengals have Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and the Bears brought Colston Loveland, Rome Odunze, and Luther Burden to bear (sorry again), the Chiefs have a much more lackluster collection of playmakers. Their most effective option by far is Rashee Rice, who is always seemingly banged up but is lethal over the middle of the field, and Travis Kelce remains a plodding but useful receiving threat. Downs is an intriguing new addition, but how much time he’ll see less than a week after being traded to Kansas City remains to be seen. If the Falcons can do a reasonable job of bottling those three up, Xavier Worthy is thoroughly mediocre and their fourth best receiving option is probably Walker, who is dangerous in the open field but not a threat downfield.
I targeted the passing game first here because of the intrigue around Mahomes vs. Fields, but the single biggest threat in this game is Walker. The Falcons were eaten alive by the Bucccaneers ground game two weeks ago, and Walker is the most dangerous back they’ll face all season. He’s 7th in the NFL in success rate, second behind Bijan Robinson in rushing yards by a measly eight yards, has yet to fumble once, and is averaging more yards per game than any other back in football. Atlanta’s run defense has been exposed as a mediocre one over the past month, and the threat of the Chiefs simply running over this unit can’t be exaggerated. Walker may get 25 carries if he’s rolling, and if he’s rolling, the Falcons are in major trouble.
Unfortunately for an Atlanta offense that has been a real puzzle box the past couple of weeks, the Kansas City defense is no pushover, either. They’re doing a nice job of limiting explosive plays and are top ten in counting stats, success rate, and EPA defensively against the pass and the run, underscoring how fundamentally sound they are. A sloppy version of this Falcons offense is going to run into trouble, and a sloppy version of this Falcons offense is all we’ve gotten lately. Your best bet is going to be to run outside where the Chiefs are marginally less stout, and I’m sure Bijan Robinson has no problem with that plan. If everyone’s blocking well, the Falcons should at least be able to get a toehold on the ground.
Things through the air are going to be tougher. We don’t know how Corey Levin is going to hold up full-time as the starting center, but we do know it’s a tough matchup against this Kansas City interior, and that Michael Penix Jr. has both struggled under pressure and faced way too many quick pressures in recent weeks. The Chiefs have the talent at every level to punish Penix locked in on receivers, Levin struggling against pressure, and Atlanta’s pass catchers not getting separation. If the past two weeks of woes continue, this one could get out of hand.
One item to watch this week if the game is close? Atlanta has a new kicker and the Chiefs are sticking with Harrison Butker, who has been abysmal this season. If Jake Moody can keep rolling, as he has over the past couple of seasons, and Butker struggles, a 3-6 point game could swing on kickers.
Overall, though, I’m going to follow my own advice and urge you to do the same: Don’t expect the Falcons to win a game against a superior opponent, and hope for the best.
