Welcome to Part II of my Red light/Green light series. The Green light: Players to target column dropped the other day and today I’m giving you the companion piece – the players I’m trying to avoid. Get ready for some negativity.
Before we get into today’s discussion, this is a link to my other preseason fantasy football content here at Big Blue View: Fantasy Football Hub
.Let me clarify what this column is about. I’m not advocating that the players discussed should get crossed off your draft board.
Rather, I’m trying to identify players whose current Average Draft Position (ADP) for redraft leagues is not offering good value. You’ll notice that my rankings on every player listed in this column are below market. That’s the idea. This isn’t a “busts” column, but rather a list of players who I think will underperform their current draft price, and who I probably won’t have much exposure to in redraft because I’ll pass on them at cost. Would I draft some of them a round (or more) later than ADP? Sure, and that varies by player. This column is all about value, and getting return on your investment. It’s also about trying to avoid costly mistakes.
NOTE: I’m mainly focusing on players going inside the first 120 picks (roughly, the first 10 rounds of a 12-team draft). Once you get past that point in drafts, overpaying doesn’t hurt you so much, because you’re taking players as depth for your bench and/or for potential upside if things break right, and you’re less likely to be passing over difference-making players. For those who play in auction leagues, I’m looking to avoid the same players at average draft cost in that format, because I think they’ll be overpriced.
ADPs listed are as of August 14, 2025, and ADPs, rankings, and points reflect Half PPR scoring, on a points per game basis. ADPs are a little all over the place right now. I’m using a consensus of ADPs, but your mileage may vary.
My Red light column from 2024 was net positive, but I can’t get past the horrific calls on Joe Burrow and Devon Achane. Sorry, people. Can I get a mulligan? Hopefully you ignored those. Notable hits included C.J. Stroud, Rachaad White, Rhamondre Stevenson, Marvin Harrison, Jr., Chris Olave, Jayden Reed, and Cole Kmet, who all underperformed expectations.
Red light players
Quarterback
Jared Goff (ADP: 97, My Ranking: 106). I’m a Goff fan, and think he’ll be fine this season. Last season was a bit of a career year, and with the departure of Ben Johnson, the retirement of Center Frank Ragnow, and more outdoor games on the schedule, some drop-off is likely. Still, he’s been very solid for all three of his seasons in Detroit. This fade is more about my strategy at quarterback than it is about Goff and the other QBs ranked 6-11. If I don’t get one of the Top-5 quarterbacks (and ideally, one of the dual-threat studs in the Top-4), then I’m likely to wait until the Dak Prescott/Justin Fields range, or even later, given the outstanding depth at the position. So in addition to Goff, I probably won’t be drafting much of Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Brock Purdy, or Kyler Murray either (unless it’s at a worthwhile discount), even though I like them. I’ll load up on RBs, WRs, and TEs while I wait.
Others: In 2-QB leagues, it’s going to be easy to get two decent starters. Again, the depth of quality at the position is as good as it’s ever been. Some of the lower-ranked quarterbacks that I like less than others ranked around them are Caleb Williams, C.J. Stroud, Cam Ward, and because of the injury risk, Matthew Stafford.
Running Back
Ashton Jeanty (ADP: 10, My Ranking: 16). Yeah, I said it. I get that Jeanty might be a generational talent, and he should get a heavy workload right away. He’s a rookie, running behind a suspect offensive line, and I’m not risking a first round pick on him when safer players like Amon Ra St. Brown, Derrick Henry, Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, and others who’ve done it for at least one season (and in some cases, many seasons) are on the board. In the last eleven years, the only rookie running backs who finished in the Top-5 at the position have been Ezekiel Elliott (2016) and Saquon Barkley (2018). Maybe Jeanty joins them, and he’ll have to in order to warrant his draft price. I’m betting against that, and it has nothing to do with his performance in Week 1 of the preseason. This take was locked in long ago.
Breece Hall (ADP: 32, My Ranking: 36). Hall burned a lot of fantasy managers last year, and his price has dropped a lot. Still, he’s going to be coming off the board in the third round and I think he carries a lot of risk at that price. Braelon Allen is too good to not get significant run, and he’s going to eat into his workload. Also, Justin Fields is going to score rushing TDs and historically has not supported great running back finishes in fantasy. I don’t see a huge bounce-back for Hall, and there are players I like better in his ADP range.
Alvin Kamara (ADP: 38, My Ranking: 43). This one is a bit contrarian, but I’m avoiding Saints players as much as I can. They could have the worst quarterback room in the league, and I’ll be very surprised if they aren’t one of the league’s lowest-scoring teams this season. Yes, Kamara should catch a lot of dump-offs, and in Full PPR I can see using a fourth rounder on him, but I don’t see him getting his usual TD total, plus he’s now 30 and that’s typically a dangerous age for running backs. If the season goes completely south as I expect, I can see the Saints easing his workload so they can see what they have in their younger backs. I’m happy to take someone else around the 3-4 turn (for example: George Kittle, Jalen Hurts, Davante Adams, or Mike Evans).
R.J. Harvey (ADP: 55, My Ranking: 66). I’m well below consensus on Harvey. I keep hearing how Sean Payton got that amazing rookie year out of Kamara, but I don’t see the 5-foot-8, 205-pound Harvey getting that kind of usage this season in Denver. J.K. Dobbins should get his fair share of the early-down work (as long as he can stay healthy), and Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime should also rotate in at times. Harvey is being drafted as if he’s going to get 275 total touches (with a chunk of that coming on receptions) and I just don’t see it. Not yet, anyway. There are other players I feel better about around the 4/5 turn and into Round 5.
Joe Mixon (ADP: 59, My Ranking: 64). Mixon has been one of the most consistent backs in fantasy in the 2020’s, and has made my “green light” list a couple of times in that stretch. Facts: He’s put up at least 1,250 total yards and nine total TDs in four straight seasons. He’s a “boring” pick who helps you win, and I love players like that. I don’t know what’s going on with Mixon’s lower leg injury, and when he might be back, but what we’re hearing out of the team doesn’t sound promising. He could be a steal at this price. But if I was drafting today, I wouldn’t burn a fifth-round pick on him given the uncertainty. My advice is to watch his situation closely. Even if he is ready to go early in the season, he could be eased in, with a committee approach that includes rookie Woody Marks.
Others: I’m looking at the running backs in the Round 6-10 range and nobody jumps out as a bad value.
Wide Receiver:
Garrett Wilson (ADP: 34, My Ranking: 37). I was higher on Wilson earlier this off-season. I like the Ohio State reunion with Justin Fields, the Jets have little at WR after Wilson, and Fields has supported a Top-10 wide receiver once before (D.J. Moore, 2022). But as I dug into it more, and then saw Wilson’s ADP, I soured on the value. Wilson set career highs across the board last season with a 101-1,104-7 stat line, but that was with Aaron Rodgers throwing the second most passes in the NFL. I expect the Jets to be a run-heavy, ball-control type of team, and I’m not comfortable using a third round pick on Wilson given the lack of elite upside. I’m not out on him, and am fine taking him a round later.
Marvin Harrison, Jr. (ADP: 40, My Ranking: 46). Harrison makes the list for the second straight year. His ADP is more reasonable this season (it was ridiculous in 2024), but I’ve still got him as overhyped, and a fade at ADP. I do expect improvement this year, and his TD total could be in the double-digits, but I need to see some consistency over a full season before I take him ahead of the players ranked around him, such as Joe Burrow, Mike Evans, and Ken Walker.
D.J. Moore (ADP: 46, My Ranking: 51). I believe in the talent, and in Ben Johnson, but I don’t see Johnson turning Moore into Chicago’s version of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Caleb Williams is a work-in progress, and with so many mouths to feed including promising rookies at wide receiver and tight end, and Rome Odunze in year two, I’m not sure Moore will command the kind of target volume that warrants taking him at his ADP. Again, I’m more confident in some other players in the same range.
Rashee Rice (ADP: 50, My Ranking: 52). The latest news on Rice was not the clarity that fantasy managers were hoping for. Barring some kind of settlement with the league, a September 30 hearing really muddies the waters, and puts his season (including the fantasy playoffs) in no-man’s land. The fact that the league is seeking ten games is concerning, to say the least. Jordan Addison is suspended for three games to start the season, and fantasy analysts and managers know how to assess that. Rice will almost certainly face a suspension at some point, but the duration and start date are unknowns at this time. As much as I’d love to have him on my team, I need to wait and see how this develops before I pull the trigger at the 4/5 turn. Stay tuned!
Chris Olave: (ADP: 75: My Ranking: 86). After a very promising start to his career, Olave has been derailed with serious concussion issues. He’s had four in three NFL seasons, including two last year, and he could be one hit away from never playing again. Throw in the Saints’ quarterback situation, which might be the NFL’s worst, and I’m out. I know he’s talented, and that he could be peppered with targets if he can manage to stay on the field. I’ll let someone else take the risk in Round 6/7.
Others: I’ll pass on Cooper Kupp (ADP: 92) and Brandon Aiyuk (ADP: 120) at cost. Also, for the third straight year, I’ll include any Green Bay WRs going in the first 10 or so rounds. The Packers broke a 20+ year trend when they took Matthew Golden in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft, but frankly, that just adds to the confusion and overcrowding, and especially with reports that Christian Watson is ahead of schedule in his return from ACL surgery and could be back by Week 5. I’m sure a Packers’ wide receivers will put up decent totals for the season, but this is a weekly game, and trying to time spike weeks is impossible. Look at Jayden Reed’s game logs from last season and you’ll see what I mean. Not only are five receivers in the mix, potentially, but Jordan Love also throws to the TEs and backs a lot. I’m out on Reed and Matthew Golden at cost.
Tight End: Tight end is feeling like a “great or late” position this year, as there’s a very big drop-off after the Top-3, and then a lot of upside plays and sleepers outside of the Top-10. Here are some of the higher-priced TEs I’m mostly passing on:
Sam LaPorta (ADP: 51, My Ranking: 61) and T.J. Hockenson (ADP: 64, My Ranking: 73). I just can’t make the value case for either of these players. They’re both on teams with big weapons at wide receiver, and with backs who catch a lot of passes. They’re unlikely to be all that consistent week-to-week. They averaged nine and seven fantasy points per game in 2024, respectively, and that would have to improve a lot for either one to be a value at ADP. Hockenson was coming off a serious injury and only played the second half of the season, so that partly explains his poor showing, but now he has a first-year quarterback who he hasn’t played with before. You can get better players at other positions in the same range, while not sacrificing that much by taking lower-ranked TEs a few rounds later.
Tyler Warren (ADP: 111, My Ranking: 120) and Colston Loveland (ADP: 116, My Ranking: 124). I’m fully aware of what Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers did in 2023 and 2024, respectively. They were major outliers, as tight ends rarely produce for fantasy as rookies. I like both of these players long-term, but don’t love the situation for either one this season. The Colts have a very crowded wide recei ver room, and major questions at quarterback, while the Bears have a lot of mouths to feed and still have Cole Kmet, too. The price isn’t so unreasonable, but still, I’ll wait a year.
That’s it for my players to target and avoid in 2025. I’ll continue to churn out draft preparation content throughout August, so keep it here!
