Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight grapplers Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos will collide this weekend (Sat., Sept. 26, 2026) inside Meta Apex
in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 121.At 21 years of age, Rosas Jr. has won six UFC fights and earned a Top 15 ranking in the highly competitive Bantamweight division. Perhaps the initial hype train went a little off the rails, but those are still remarkable accomplishments for the young talent! After five straight wins, Rosas Jr. has scored
his first-ever main event slot versus Brazil’s Barcelos. Eighteen years his opponent’s elder, Barcelos has been in the cage with many of the division’s finest. He’s in the midst of a resurgence, having put together five high-quality wins of his own (like this) ahead of this high-profile battle.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Betting Odds
- Raul Rosas Jr. victory: -160
- Raul Rosas Jr. via TKO/KO/DQ: +600
- Raul Rosas Jr. via submission: +340
- Raul Rosas Jr. via decision: +240
- Raoni Barcelos victory: +130
- Raoni Barcelos via TKO/KO/DQ: +500
- Raoni Barcelos via submission: +1300
- Raoni Barcelos via decision: +300
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Rosas Jr. Wins
Rosas Jr. is a gifted athlete and jiu-jitsu black belt. Large for the Bantamweight division, Rosas Jr. is routinely able to overpower his opponents with takedowns and then dominate on the canvas. His kickboxing has developed nicely throughout his three years on UFC’s roster as well, becoming more fluid and more powerful even if there’s still room for improvement.
The great question here is Rosas Jr.’s gas tank. Does he have the capacity to out-grind a very skilled wrestler/grappler for 25 minutes? It’s not going to be easy to submit Barcelos, a fellow black belt who is also tough as an old leather boot. Most likely, this fight is going long, which means Rosas Jr. cannot empty the gas tank early on with relentless takedowns.
This might be the time to show off that improved standup. Rosas Jr. is the better and rangier kicker, so he should look to win the distance battle and time Barcelos coming forward with counters. As the quicker and younger man, he should be able to trade with Barcelos with a reasonable degree of comfort.
The striking is a means to an end, of course. Rosas Jr. still wants to use his wrestling to gain top position and win rounds, but if he can do so without sprinting relentlessly towards the takedown, he’ll perform better in the second half of the fight.
How Barcelos Wins
Barcelos is an accomplished wrestler and longtime black belt. In fact, he was a primary sparring partner of Jose Aldo for much of the champion’s legendary Featherweight run. On the feet, Barcelos does have power in his right hand and brings a varied kickboxing attack.
Strange as this is to write about the 39-year-old, I’d like to see Barcelos forcing the issue here. He’s a much more technical wrestler with equally slick jiu-jitsu transitions, so why not take the fight to Rosas Jr? If Barcelos could keep up with gigantic cardio machine Payton Talbott, he should be able to scramble at a better pace than Rosas Jr., who still tends to slow down in 15 minute fights.
Cardio alone could win this fight for Barcelos, particularly if Rosas Jr. is trying to muscle him around.
On that note, Barcelos should be pushing the pace on the feet, too. He’s the better combination puncher and looks more natural in the pocket, whereas Rosas Jr. will likely prefer a longer distance. If Barcelos is feinting his takedowns then exploding into body-head combinations, he’s likely to catch Rosas Jr. clean and force bad reactions from the young talent.
Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos Prediction
There are two possible ways I can envision Rosas Jr. winning this fight, though both require a level up from previous performances. He’s shown more punching power recently, so perhaps he could catch Barcelos early in the fight a la Umar Nurmagomedov. Alternatively, Rosas Jr. could demonstrate a heretofore unprecedented level of cardio and bully the older man for five rounds.
I don’t really buy either outcome.
Barcelos just walked through the punches of a knockout artist in Montel Jackson — his chin is still trustworthy. Meanwhile, Rosas Jr. consistently gets tired in fights he’s winning, and he’s never faced a wrestler with the skill of Barcelos. He’s going to have to work hard to take and hold down Barcelos, so his effectiveness is likely to drop off midway through the second.
Right when 39-year-old Barcelos is getting warmed up.
