Every year I like to take a look back at my preseason predictions and see how I did. I think it is fair to say this past year’s predictions were not my best. This three-week series is going to look back at my predictions,
and last week started with the teams that once made up the Mountain Division. This week, we are going to focus on the former West Division. Without further ado, let’s look at the Good, Bad, and Ugly of my preseason predictions.
The Good
UNLV
My Prediction: 10-2
Final Record: 10-4
My 10-2 regular season prediction was spot on. UNLV had a solid year under new head coach Dan Mullen and they built an offense that was electric and exciting to watch. However, this team had some pretty significant flaws on the defensive side of the ball. The Rebels had a number of close calls this season and their inability to keep opposing teams out of the end zone prevented them from being a realistic playoff contender and led to the loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game for the third consecutive season. Even with Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Anthony Colandrea gone, the Rebels will likely be the favorite in the Mountain West next season.
Nevada
My Prediction: 3-9
Final Record: 3-9
Nailed this one. It was pretty clear heading into the season that Nevada did not have the offensive talent to win many out-of-conference games or compete with the majority of the Mountain West. If you are going to look at the positives of this season, the Wolf Pack got their first two conference wins under Jeff Choate and showed growth late in the season. Nevada was able to retain some of their top players and should be better suited to compete in the new look Mountain West. I think Choate and his staff will have a bowl eligible squad next fall.
The Bad
Hawaii
My Prediction: 6-6
Final Record: 9-4
I thought Timmy Chang and his staff would get their first bowl appearance and do just enough to keep their jobs. However, the play of young quarterback Micah Alejado and his electric group of wide receivers far exceeded my expectations. The Rainbow Warriors were, arguably, the most exciting teams in the country and were only a few mistakes away from contending for a conference championship. Timmy Chang has officially built a winner on the islands and this team should be able to give UNLV a run for their money next fall.
Fresno State
My Prediction: 6-6
Final Record: 9-4
I loved the Matt Entz hire from day one. Entz is a proven winner and has a championship resume from his time as head coach of North Dakota State. Despite shaky quarterback play, the Bulldogs had a really good season. Entz was able to implement a physical style of play that his team bought into from day one. The Bulldogs had one of the best defenses in the conference and were able to win tough road games in Boise and Hawaii. A late season loss to Utah State and an inexcusable beat down from conference bottom-feeder Colorado State cost this team a chance at the Mountain West Championship. But if Entz and his staff can keep the momentum going, they will be realistic contenders in the PAC 12.
The Ugly
San Jose State
My Prediction: 9-3
Final Record: 3-9
San Jose State was the trendy preseason pick to challenge Boise State and UNLV for a spot in the conference championship game. The Spartans were coming off a 2024 season where they were bowl eligible and showed significant growth. However, the losses of key wide receivers Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart along with a non-existent rushing attack proved to be too much for the Spartans to overcome. Even with those excuses, there is no reason the Spartans should have finished near the bottom of the Mountain West. If head coach Ken Niumatalolo can’t fix things quickly, his time in San Jose may come to an end sooner than expected.
San Diego State
My Prediction: 5-7
Final Record: 9-4
Sean Lewis’ first season in San Diego was a massive failure. After the 2024 season, I was not sold on his ability to get this program back on track. He proved me wrong by embracing the physical style of football that the Aztec program was built on. Despite inconsistent quarterback play and an offense that struggled at times, the Aztecs built a physical team that had one of the best defenses in college football. The controversial tiebreaker resulted in this team falling just short of a spot in the conference championship game, but this program is definitely trending in the right direction.
Were you surprised UNLV kept the momentum going under Dan Mullen? Leave your thoughts in the comments below.
