Saturday’s game against SMU marked roughly the halfway point of UNC’s regular season schedule. The Heels have played 15 games and have 16 ACC matchups remaining. And while the meat of UNC’s schedule arguably
remains ahead of them, they’ve already written half of their resume for a 2026 NCAA Tournament bid.
Last year’s squad entered ACC play with virtually no significant non-conference wins and little hope of getting them in conference play. The outlook for the Heels looks much rosier this year; UNC is 13-2, and the ACC looks much better than last year. Case in point: Carolina’s loss to an unranked SMU team isn’t as bad as it seems, as the Mustangs actually have solid metrics. Barring a total collapse by SMU, it should remain a Quad 1 loss.
So, let’s look at UNC’s tournament resume profile:
Record: 13-2 (1-1 ACC)
Significant wins: Home win vs Kansas, Road win vs Kentucky, Neutral site win vs Ohio State
Metric ranks: KenPom 27, EvanMiya 25, NET 18
Record by Quads: Quad 1 3-2, Quad 2 0-0, Quad 3 4-0, Quad 4 6-0
Fun fact: UNC’s final KenPom rating last year was 31, or only four spots worse than this team’s current ranking. That’s a little jarring considering how wildly different this season feels compared to last year’s team. It’s also further proof that UNC’s solid metric last year drug them into the tournament; if just a couple of their close losses had been wins the Heels would have been comfortably in. This year, the Heels have won some of those important Quad 1 games; they currently have seven more opportunities to add to that total.
So where are the Heels projected to land in the NCAA Tournament? Based on the average of all bracket experts tracked by BracketMatrix, the Heels would be a four seed in the NCAA Tournament. Nor is there a lot of disagreement; a few sites have the Heels as a three seed, and a few have them as a five seed. The ACC shows up well overall, with eight teams projected to make the Big Dance. This is almost certainly a little high, as many of them are right on the cut line (like N.C. State). Still, it’s heartening to see the conference regain some of the competitiveness it lost last year.
Ultimately, it’s too early to assume the Heels will make the tourney, much less be a top four seed. College basketball is littered with teams that started out strong and faded their way out of the bracket by March. Still, it’s nice this year to be in the position to debate potential seeding rather than wonder if the Heels have a chance to make the bracket at all.
