League leaders Arsenal return to the Emirates for the final match of Premier League play before another international break, hosting newly-promoted Hull City on Saturday.
Playing at the Emirates has felt a bit like a novelty this season. Saturday marks only the 6th home match of the season for Mikel Arteta’s side from 16 matches played. They have done just about as well as you could hope with such a daunting travel schedule, but living out of your suitcase in the world’s toughest league isn’t easy.
The Gunners come back to their pitch with a lead at the top of the table and a chance to solidify it against Hull City. Arsenal’s impeccable home record against newly-promoted sides – 46 unbeaten in a row and 18 wins from their last 20 matches – means that, in theory, they should enter Saturday’s tilt with confidence and a stadium filled with supporters ready to will them to a result.
But things have not been entirely smooth for the title holders in recent weeks. The attack has sputtered, they put in a bafflingly bad performance at Fleetwood Town, and their last two wins against Liverpool and Slavia Praha were less than convincing. They could use a resounding result before the winter fixtures kick off and their depth will be put to the test, but Hull will have other plans.
The Tigers have been a tricky side this season and will come to the Emirates with a bus to park and every intention to rain on Arsenal’s title defense. In a matchup that has historically favored the hosts, can the Gunners find their shooting boots, ride the energy of the home support, and notch another important win ahead of the break?
Know the Enemy
Domestic Record: 2W-5D-2L (11th)
Arsenal all-time record against: 18W-5D-3L
With the season a quarter of the way done, Hull City haven’t just defied the odds – they have smashed expectations with an impressive beginning to their first PL campaign in a decade.
The Tigers entered the season on almost everyone’s short list of clubs likely to be relegated at the end of the season. They spent the summer overhauling their squad which has been a notorious hurdle for promoted clubs in the past that failed to adapt to the new league as well as the new players.
But Hull City came out of the gates with a mission and laid down a marker when they rocked Manchester United 2-0 at home on the first day of the season before earning a 0-1 win away to fellow promoted side Coventry. By match week 4, they had drawn Aston Villa and Chelsea and were making pundits eat crow with a tough defense and tenacious style of play.
It’s too early to tell what the rest of the season holds. Their opening two wins remain their only two wins in the PL this season. A slew of draws keeping them hovering around the middle of the table, and the shine has come off the apple a tad. Still, they have had a charmed season relative to early expectations and have given themselves a decent cushion with the winter fixture congestion just around the corner.
They have been an overperformer so far, but I doubt you’d hear them complain. Where other teams have fallen behind, they have maximized chances and taken valuable points. There is still a reasonable expectation that they will finish right around the drop zone, but they certainly don’t play like it at the moment.
Their attack has had pretty decent returns; their 11 goals are slightly above their expected xG of 9.11, which they’ve amassed from only 96 shots, which is second lowest in the league. Compared to Nottingham Forest, who have racked up a ton of xG with few goals to show for it, they have been a model of efficiency. They are an incredibly direct team in the attack as they don’t tend to build up the play; they boast the least passes per attacking sequence in the league and tend to play it long and on the counter.
Their defense is tidy with only 10 goals conceded so far thanks to an admirable 7.63% conversion rate. They also don’t give up much from distance, with only 1 goal conceded from outside the box. They have a league low 33% possession, so it won’t be a shock if they sit deep and force Arsenal to circulate the ball all match.
The Tigers haven’t hit the levels they did in the early weeks of the season, but they have made a habit of staying in matches and keeping opponents honest. If they can play it smart and keep the Gunners at bay, they may fancy their chances of leaving the Emirates with a result.
Incomings: Nobel Mendy (Rayo Vallecano), Konstantinos Tzolakis (Olympiacos), Ilyas Ansah (Union Berlin), Tim Iroegbunam (Everton), Mohamed-Ali Cho (Nice), Christos Mouzakitis (Olympiacos), Lucas Herrington (Colorado Rapids), Brooke Norton-Cuffy (Genoa), Jens Hjertø-Dahl (Tromsø IL), Sorba Thomas (Stoke City), Joe Gelhardt (Leeds), Lucas Gourna-Douath (Salzburg), Jack Butland (Rangers), Elliot Stroud (Mjällby), Hidemasa Morita (Sporting), Matt Targett (Newcastle)
Departures: Ivor Pandur (Rangers), Kyle Joseph (Middlesborough), Cody Drameh (Genoa), Abu Kamara (Portsmouth), Akin Famewo (Bolton), Kasey Palmer (Luton), Enis Destan (Konyaspor), David Akintola (Omonia), Harry Vaughan (Bohemians)
Injuries & Suspensions: Eliot Matazo (knee), Matt Targett (ankle), Lucas Gourna-Douath (calf), Ilyas Ansah (back), Charlie Hughes (groin), Matt Crooks (yellow card accumulation)
How Hull City can beat Arsenal
Efficient set pieces
Hull City have not been a high-volume attack in most metrics, but they have had pretty decent success from set pieces. Their 4 goals from set pieces are joint-third in the PL and account for 36.36% of their total goals. Forcing corners and free kicks from dangerous areas may give them an opportunity to put one past the Gunners.
How Arsenal can beat Hull City
Be aggressive
The blueprint for facing Arsenal has been well-known for a while: sit deep, absorb pressure, and take away shooting angles. Few sides do that as well as Hull so far this season. Arsenal’s biggest issue has been that they have not been as clinical as they could be. Some of that stems from the deep blocks they face, but a decent portion of that is simply not asserting themselves and taking shots. Arteta’s tactics rely heavily on working the ball wide for cut backs and crosses, which aren’t easy to come by when teams pack the box. If they are more willing to take the shot, it’s likely good things (ie goals) will happen.
For discussions about how the Gunners may line up, check out our injuries, suspensions, and potential lineups post here.
WHO: Arsenal vs Hull City
WHAT: Premier League match day 10
WHEN: Saturday, November 7th, 10:00am EST/7:00am PST/3:00pm GMT
WHERE: The Emirates Stadium, London
HOW TO WATCH: Broadcast live on NBCSN and Telemundo. Streaming on the Peacock app.
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