The Spurs will host the Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals on Monday as heavy favorites despite the uncertainty surrounding Anthony Edwards’ status. Even if the injured superstar guard returns, he’ll likely be limited by two knee injuries, so San Antonio is expected to win this series, as long as they play with the focus and intensity required for any postseason matchup.
So far, the “young team struggling with the bright lights” narrative hasn’t fit this group, but they will
face a tough test against Minnesota. If Edwards remains out, they will have to avoid complacency and put away a veteran team with two consecutive trips to the Conference Finals on their back. If Edwards does return and looks anything closer to his best self, they’ll face a formidable opponent.
It’s an interesting matchup in many ways, but one that is hard to preview because of the potential absence of a superstar. For now, let’s assume Edwards will either be out for a few games and/or severely limited at least for the first few.
The Spurs should run their offense through Wembanyama, but without forcing things
Rudy Gobert is coming off a terrific series against the Nuggets in which he contained Nikola Jokic’s scoring largely by himself in the first few games, a feat that only a few others can even hope to achieve. He’ll get another chance at proving his many, many haters wrong about his playoff impact when he matches up with Wembanyama, but it’s arguably going to be a tougher battle for the four-time Defensive Player of the Year, as long as San Antonio plays smart
Unlike the Nuggets, the Spurs have enough shot-creation elsewhere to have Wemby to act as a decoy and draw Gobert out of the paint, putting tremendous pressure on a perimeter defense that is missing integral pieces. If Gobert sags off of Wemby to try to remain near the paint, as he did in their one regular-season matchup, Wemby can get open threes. The Timberwolves might decide to bet on Wemby, a streaky shooter, struggling to make them pay, but Wembanyama can also attack off the dribble if he has a runway and a well-spaced floor, and Gobert has traditionally struggled with agility more than strength.
At his best, Wembanyama is also less post-oriented than Jokic and can do work coming off screens and acting as a rim-runner. If Wemby’s shot is off and Gobert does a good job containing him one-on-one, allowing the Timberwolves to deny the corner three-pointers their defense does a terrific job of preventing, San Antonio can just force the big man to chase Wemby through the perimeter as they set him up for open jumpers. They can also use Wemby’s tremendous gravity as a roll man to get their guards going, as Gobert would likely focus on trying to prevent lobs and staying in place for defensive rebounds.
If the Spurs use Wembanyama smartly and Gobert struggles to guard him without much help, it might lead Chris Finch to do what other coaches have tried in the past: use a forward on Victor. Julius Randle had some success guarding Wembanyama on his own during the regular season as long as he was allowed to be physical with him, especially when the Spurs tried to get their superstar going through touches at the elbow or free-throw line. The problem then is that there’s no true safe place to slot Gobert. The Trail Blazers put their center on Stephon Castle, but he has hit shots and, equally importantly, has known when to take them and when to continue running the offense, even when he’s initially open.
The Timberwolves’ defense can be great at times, especially when Gobert is shining, but San Antonio has ways to hurt them, as long as they don’t fall for the trap of trying to get any one player going. Wembanyama, in particular, seems to understand now that at this point in his career, in which he lacks a go-to move, his versatility is his best weapon. As long as the ball and players move, scoring should not be too hard despite Minnesota having a few elite defenders.
The perimeter defense needs to be suffocating
While the big man matchup seems to be the key on offense for the Spurs, on the other end, the biggest battle will probably be waged on the perimeter. Julius Randle will score, and Naz Reid could take advantage of his size advantage against a smaller Spurs forward group, but San Antonio can live with that. The most important task with Edwards out or limited will be to prevent the other Wolves’ guards and Jaden McDaniels from going off, as they did in turns against the Nuggets.
Stephon Castle will likely be tasked with guarding McDaniels, unless Mitch Johnson makes the bold decision to put him on Randle. The Wolves wing is mostly known for his defense and might be an 11-point-per-game scorer for his career, but he averaged close to 18 against the Nuggets despite his outside shot abandoning him. He can use his length to shoot over defenders from midrange, and if he’s not pressured, he can get to his spots off the dribble on drives, finishing with finesse near the rim or with explosiveness at it. The Spurs have handled craftier scorers, but the importance of making McDaniels look like the elite role player he’s been instead of a nascent star ready to make the leap would have a direct impact on both Minnesota’s offense and their confidence.
Beyond McDaniels, the Wolves have some guys who can’t be discounted when it comes to exploding for big scoring nights. Ayo Dosunmu dropped 43 off the bench in one game against the Nuggets, and he’s a dynamic two-way guy with limitless energy. Bones Hyland might shoot a team out of a win, or he might string together enough buckets to keep the offense going for a stretch by himself. Shannon Jr. is not gun-shy, and his confidence should be sky-high after his performances in the last two games against Denver. Mike Conley, who is closer to retirement than his prime, can still pick apart a lazy defense or hit open shots if they are conceded to him.
It’s tempting to focus on the Timberwolves’ one true advantage on offense: their size at the big forward spots, and especially Randle’s scoring. But they are a team first and foremost, built around defense and a transcendent perimeter scoring talent that shouldn’t be at his peak whenever he returns. Preventing others from stepping up and filling that void is arguably the most important task for the Spurs this series.
Prediction: Spurs in 5
As mentioned, it’s hard to preview and even harder to predict a series in which there’s uncertainty about such a major factor. If Edwards returns early in the series and looks like himself, there’s no way the Wolves don’t make it a long battle that could go either way. If he takes a while to return or looks hobbled, and the Spurs play with appropriate fear against a tough, experienced opponent, their talent advantage should be enough to overcome a size disparity that favors Minnesota and get to the Conference Finals without suffering too much.
