The loss against Michigan State on Saturday night was crushing. Every year, this team finds new ways to get my hopes up and rip my heart straight out of my chest yet again. In fact, BC’s loss against Michigan State on Saturday was the nation’s unluckiest loss in Week 2.
But even in the midst of the disappointment, it’s hard not to be bursting with optimism about the abilities of Dylan Lonergan and the BC offense.
Lonergan looks like the real deal.
If you watched the game on Saturday night, you know
what I’m talking about. Lonergan was passing with an accuracy I haven’t seen in a Boston College quarterback in a long time. And that was his first career start against a real opponent! On the road at Michigan State! He got a little uneasy in the second half, but that’s also largely due to the amount of work he was asked to do. BC couldn’t run the ball at all, so Lonergan was forced to throw on the majority of downs. The defense knew the passes were coming, but he still largely hit his guys and moved the ball downfield.
This breakthrough opens up a lot of possibilities for Boston College this season. Lonergan looked like he was capable of leading a top-5 ACC offense. That level of offense would put BC within striking distance of basically any opponent on their schedule.
The tough schedule may not actually be so tough.
Clemson lost to LSU in Week 1, and struggled to put away Troy in Week 2. Notre Dame fell to Miami in Week 1. SMU’s defense turned into swiss cheese against Baylor in a loss. Syracuse went to OT against UConn. The long and hard road that we expected for this season may actually provide more winnable games than anticipated. If Lonergan stays as hot as he was on Saturday night, and the BC defense improves to at least semi-competent, the Eagles should have a shot to beat basically anyone on their schedule.
If we go by ESPN Analytics, a neutral measuring stick, BC has the following odds for each of their remaining games:
- @ Stanford – 61%
- vs Cal – 76%
- @ Pitt – 41%
- vs Clemson – 44%
- vs UConn – 76%
- @ Louisville – 35%
- vs Notre Dame – 20%
- vs SMU – 49%
- vs Georgia Tech – 41%
- @ Syracuse – 60%
Taking these odds at face value, you would expect BC to finish with a record of 6-6 (6.03-5.97, to be exact). They are outright favored in four games, and statistically you would expect an upset in at least one other game. The analytics indicate that Pitt, Clemson, SMU, and Georgia Tech are all very beatable.
And that’s just based off of preseason rankings and a couple of weeks of play. Lonergan should improve as the year goes on, and who knows how injuries or other factors may change outcomes as we get deeper into the fall. An 8-win season is still very much alive if BC gets some good breaks.
