The two programs meeting in Eugene this weekend could not be going in any more opposite directions. Michigan is now 5-4 losing to Michigan State for the first time since 2021, and Oregon is coming off a huge win over Ohio State in Columbus.
If head coach Kyle Whittingham wants any chance at survival, he’s going to need this one. Here are three keys to Michigan pulling off the upset.
Run the ball
It’s still quite shocking just how bad Michigan’s run game has been this season. The Wolverines rank 109th in FBS in rushing
yards per game with 128.7. The last time Michigan finished with a rushing yards per game lower than that was in 2013 when it ran for 125.7 yards per game.
Oregon is a team that lives and dies by its run defense. The Ducks rank 40th in FBS by allowing 124.8 rush yards per game. But in all three of their losses, the Ducks have allowed 140 or more rushing yards. In all six wins, they’ve allowed less than that mark.
Whether it be any of the three running back options — Jordan Marshall, Savion Hiter or Bryson Kuzdzal — it doesn’t really matter as long as the run game gets established. The hope is having offensive line coach Jim Harding calling plays will put more of an emphasis on run blocking and downhill running. But based on recent history with this offense and how the offensive line has performed, it seems like a long shot.
Win the turnover battle
Last Saturday’s game was the latest example of how the turnover margin has killed Michigan all season. Going into the game, the Wolverines had a -4 turnover margin on the year — they proceeded to double that against the Spartans with four turnovers and no takeaways on defense.
The best game of the season in terms of turnover margin was also arguably its best win over Oklahoma where it had a fumble recovery and interception, ending with a +2 turnover margin. The only other game with a positive turnover margin was against Penn State.
Oregon, on the other hand, has an even turnover margin. The Ducks sit pretty squarely at a +1, 0 or -1 margin each game, but the two outliers were -4 in the loss to UCLA and +4 against Portland State in an 84-0 victory. Needless to say, if the Wolverines are to have any chance at winning, their defense is going to need to help out the offense even more than it already does by generating more turnovers.
Start fast to quiet Autzen Stadium
Michigan is going to also need help in as many of the intangibles as possible. Autzen Stadium is often credited as one of the loudest stadiums in college football. Even though they’re only 5-4, the Ducks are coming off a huge win and hosting a program like Michigan is sure to get the crowd fired up — not to mention the comments between Whittingham and Oregon head coach Dan Lanning this week.
In quarterback Tommy Carr’s first two wins — Penn State and Rutgers — he and the offense scored a touchdown on their first drive from scrimmage together, the first of the second half vs the Nittany Lions and first of the game vs the Scarlet Knights. The Wolverines getting help in that department by scoring early could bring a lot of confidence to a group that was decimated last week against a mediocre Michigan State defense.
All the midseason change — from quarterback to offensive coordinator — hasn’t left much continuity for the Wolverines to establish any semblance of a rhythm. But going into Autzen and scoring on the first drive would help the offense’s momentum and help the defense responds.
