Saturday was a missed opportunity for Miami, dropping their home finale 92-89 to the Louisville Cardinals. With just the ACC Tournament remaining, most brackets have Miami as a 7 seed, with a few putting Miami on the 8 seed line.
Miami has a double-bye into the ACC Quarterfinals where they will face the winner of Louisville v. [SMU or Syracuse] on Thursday at 2:30PM. Should Miami prevail, the ’Canes would likely advance to play Virginia in the ACC Semifinals but could possibly face NC State, Stanford,
or Pitt.
Both Louisville and SMU would be strong wins for Miami’s resume, particularly Louisville who is No. 13 in the Net ranking. A neutral site revenge win against the Cardinals could lift the ‘Canes back up to the 6 seed, where some brackets had them before Saturday’s loss. Losing is never good, but a loss to either shouldn’t drop Miami below the 8 seed based on current projections.
Of course, if Miami has Sweet 16 aspirations, earning a six seed could be critical for Miami’s path to playing on the second weekend. Projected two seeds could be blue-bloods UConn or Michigan State in Buffalo or Philadelphia, or maybe Illinois in nearby St. Louis. Projected three seeds might be Nebraska (who is 5-5 after starting 20-0) or Purdue (who has lost 4 of its last 6 games) or maybe Iowa State (who finished the season 2-3). Point being: there are more vulnerable three seeds than there are two seeds that could have trouble with Miami’s physical play, and three seeds won’t get the same level of near-home site preference.
So the Hurricanes are definitely dancing, but there’s still much to play for this week.
As for the rest of the ACC, there are only 6 truly safe teams come Selection Sunday: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami, and Clemson. Another 5 teams are within striking distance of the bubble depending on how they fare in the conference tournament:
- NC State has fallen from a certain lock to most bracket’s last four byes. NC State will face the winner of Stanford v. Pittsburgh in the second round. Would a loss to either drop the Wolfpack out of March Madness entirely? This seemed unfathomable a few weeks ago, but that’s what happens when you lose 6 of 7 games to close the season (including an awful loss at Notre Dame).
- SMU is another formerly safe selection that has fallen from grace. Each above-sampled Bracketologist predicts SMU will be a play-in 11 seed, so there is zero room for error. SMU opens against Syracuse, and would face Louisville in the second round. Even with a Top 40 net ranking, SMU can probably kiss their NCAA bid goodbye if they don’t at least win one game in the ACC tournament.
- Virginia Tech missed an opportunity to get on the right side of the bubble against Virginia, and now almost every bracket predicts the Hokies will just miss dancing. Virginia Tech opens the ACC Tournament against Wake Forest, and would face Clemson in the second round. Could one win put the Hokies on the right side of the bubble? What about two?
- Cal fumbled its chance down the stretch to put itself on the right side of the bubble, and now it faces a red-hot Florida State in the second round of the ACC Tournament. After Duke and Virginia, Florida State is probably the toughest matchup in the ACC at the moment. The Seminoles finished the season 10-3 in their last 13 games. But hey…beat FSU, and then Duke after that, and the Calgorithim suddenly is a safe bet to punch their ticket to March Madness.
- Stanford had not been in the bubble conversation for weeks, but 4 straight wins to finish the season (including at NC State and vs. SMU) suddenly places the Cardinals back in consideration. CBS and ESPN are particularly bullish on Stanford’s chances. Stanford opens the ACC Tournament against Pitt, a necessary win to continue its bubble talk, and then would face NC State in the second round.
