Last season, the Michigan Wolverines lost three non-conference games by a possession, falling to Wake Forest (2 points), Arkansas (2), and Oklahoma (1). This past Tuesday, history looked ready to repeat
itself, but instead this game against Wake ended up with the Wolverines on the right side of a close win. That victory did not come easily, but Michigan gets a chance to reset on Friday night.
The trip to Fort Worth to face the TCU Horned Frogs gives Michigan its first opportunity since the 2018-19 season to win multiple non-MTE games against Power Five (Six) opposition. Sometimes there only are three games a year, but it still is never a good sign to fall short against the bigger programs on the schedule. TCU does qualify for this group, though barely falls into the Kenpom top 100, giving the Wolverines a good shot to break that drought.
No. 6 Michigan (2-0) at TCU (2-1)
Date & Time: Friday, Nov. 14, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, TX
TV/Streaming: ESPN2
The first leg of this home-and-home was also the third game of the season, with Michigan winning by 12 in Ann Arbor. That game was fairly sloppy, with another elevated turnover rate and a second-half scoring slump preventing the Wolverines from pulling away despite a 14-and-14 effort from Danny Wolf. Fortunately, the defense stayed locked in, limited the Frogs to just 0.88 PPP and allowing Dusty May to kick off a seven-game win streak.
Two Stats to Watch
Turnover Rate: 15.3% (93rd)
Michigan did a great job protecting the ball against Oakland, then regressed a bit against Wake, committing 11 of its 17 turnovers in the second half and overtime. Jamie Dixon’s squad has undergone the typical offseason shuffle, but was 59th in forcing turnovers last season and posted rates above 20% in two of the first three games, making this a good test for the Wolverines.
Last season’s battle at Crisler was bad even for Michigan’s standards with 28.9% of possessions ending in turnovers. The focus is obviously going to be on Elliot Cadeau in this department, but all three of the Wolverines’ bigs had three turnovers against the Deacs, and doing so in this one is going to be leaving points on the board given the size advantage they will have in the paint. It is only game three, but we saw how taking care of the ball was an issue at the start of last year and never really improved; if this season is going to be different, there needs to be some evidence from this game.
TCU 2-Point Shooting: 60.4% (47th)
The Frogs are not a great team from deep, hitting just 29.1% of their threes so far this season, but are very efficient from two. Perhaps some of this is helped by swapping Frankie Collins (who could have seen him transferring again???) for Jayden Pierre, but mostly speaks to the team’s strength in the frontcourt. Sophomore Micah Robinson was a top-100 recruit, classmate David Punch was an impact freshman last year, and Xavier Edmonds was the top JUCO transfer of the offseason.
Punch and Edmonds are hitting a combined 80.6% of their shots inside the arc but have not faced length like Aday Mara and Morez Johnson. TCU scored just 0.97 PPP in the upset loss to New Orleans (no, not the Pelicans) and now get to face a defense that is top-25 nationally in opposing two-point percentage. Normally the three ball is an outlet for an underdog, but Michigan would be more than happy to see the Frogs try to launch it from deep. Given the Wolverines’ rim protection to start the year, they may have no choice but to start leaning on jumpers.
