The Yankees’ odds of winning the AL East are down to 2.8 percent per FanGraphs after getting walked off by the Diamondbacks last night. I know mathematically that makes sense, but the chances mentally feel even more extreme. I’ve been having “fun” (or whatever) comping the odds to certain pitchers from history getting a hit. We are the dregs. Remember mid-2000s Mets pitcher Aaron Heilman? I personally remember him most for giving up the homer to Yadier Molina late in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, just
before Adam Wainwright famously caught Carlos Beltrán looking to win the pennant.
Anyway, Heilman was a horrendous hitter. He singled once in his rookie year, and then never got another hit. He ended his career 1-for-47, so an .021 average. So the Yankees just need magic only a little bit more sufficient than that RBI single by Heilman off Sidney Ponson on August 12, 2003! Hell yeah.
It’s not happening, but we press on because it’s good to check up on what everyone else is doing anyway. Here’s what was going on Saturday.
Tampa Bay Rays (94-60) 2, Boston Red Sox (84-71) 1
The Yankees gained a full game on the Rays on Friday for the first time in over a week, as Boston snapped their six-game winning streak. There was no such fortune to be found yesterday though; Tampa Bay made sure of that well before first pitch in Arizona, and it only got worse from there. By the end of the night, the Rays once again had a five-game lead over the Yanks; Tampa Bay’s magic number (combination of Rays wins or Yankees losses) to clinch the AL East is four.
This one was a pitchers’ duel to the bitter end. Brayan Bello had easily his best outing of a turbulent season (and probably the best of his career), firing eight shutout frames at the Trop and fanning 11 Rays, tying a personal best from July 9, 2024. As he only went 5.1 in that one and faced merely the soon-to-depart-Oakland A’s rather than the division-leading Rays.
The only true blemish on Bello’s record came when Jonathan Aranda cracked an opposite-field homer to make it a 1-1 game in the fourth. Tampa Bay had a chance to make it 2-1 against Bello in the seventh when Liam Hicks and Chandler Simpson led off with singles. Bello then induced a grounder from Victor Mesa Jr. to move up the runners, and then another off the bat of Richie Palacios to Trevor Story, who nailed pinch-runner Jonny DeLuca at home. Palacios swiped second, but Bello fanned Cedric Mullins to end the inning. The Rays went down in order in the eighth to end Bello’s brilliant night.
Unfortunately for Bello, a win wasn’t in the cards because Boston put up next to nothing against Freddy Peralta and the Rays’ pitching staff. Doubles by Caleb Durbin and Roman Anthony gave the Red Sox their one run in the second, but they were stymied from there. They had chances!
- Second inning after Anthony’s two-out double: Mickey Gasper lineout to center
- Fourth inning with runners on first and second, one out: Story strikeout, Durbin popout
- Fifth inning with runner on second, one out: Anthony groundout, Gasper strikeout
- Sixth inning with runners on first and second, two out: Durbin fly out to left
- Eighth inning after Adley Rutschman’s one-out double: Wilyer Abreu strikeout, Nick Sogard lineout
Even against lockdown Rays closer Bryan Baker, Boston had one last shot to take a late lead. After Story grounded out, Durbin lined a double down the left field line to put himself in scoring position for Jarren Duran. Durbin darted from second, however, and got thrown out stealing third. Duran promptly followed with a triple over DeLuca’s head in center. Isiah Kiner-Falefa bounced one to Junior Caminero at third to end the threat.
Granted a chance to walk it off, Tampa Bay didn’t waste it. Rather than blasting a homer to finish the game as he had twice earlier this homestand, Caminero began the ninth against Garrett Whitlock with a single to left. (A catwalk curtailed Durbin’s effort to catch a popup earlier in the AB.) DeLuca popped up, but Chandler Simpson grounded one through the six-hole for another hit. The runners moved up when catcher Connor Wong let a Whitlock sinker up bounce off his glove for a passed ball. Palacios ended the night with flare to center that fell in, securing the win for Tampa Bay. At least the Wild Card Series is also almost certainly going to be at Yankee Stadium now, I suppose.
AL Rock Fight
Cleveland Guardians (80-75) 12, The Athletics (61-94) 6
Two crooked numbers effectively decided Saturday’s affair with the A’s in a hurry. Tanner Bibee kind of stunk and would allow six runs in a dozen hits while failing to make through five, but it hardly mattered. Cleveland erased a 2-0 deficit in the first on a three-run shot from rookie Chase DeLauter and two-run homer by Angel Martinez. The A’s got one back in the third, only to see another five-spot from the Guardians on poor Jacob Lopez as David Fry, Austin Hedges, and Brayan Rocchio all delivered RBI doubles. Martinez later added a homer and an RBI single in a career-best four-hit day.
Chicago White Sox (79-76) 3, Detroit Tigers (73-82) 1
Cleveland’s win meant that Chicago was stuck at a game back in the AL Central in the best-case, but they did at least help push one of their Wild Card foes out of the picture with a win. Honestly, this was probably kind of a dud of a game for anyone who isn’t a White Sox fan, the lone highlights being Sean Burke’s six scoreless frames and Miguel Vargas’ sixth-inning solo shot to make it 3-1, Chicago (the other runs scored on an RBI single by Munetaka Murakami and a fifth-inning sac fly). Spencer Torkelson had a chance to tie the game with a homer following Hao-Yu Lee’s two-out single in the ninth, but he flew out to center to end it.
Milwaukee Brewers (97-58) 1, Baltimore Orioles (75-80) 0
Yeah, it’s time to stick a fork in the O’s. It was all but certain for awhile now, but Chicago’s win combined with Baltimore’s second-straight loss to Milwaukee means that the Orioles are four back with a week to play, plus multiple teams in front of them. Trevor Rogers was the hard-luck loser here while Baltimore got blanked on four hits and Rece Hinds lost a fly ball from Joey Ortiz in the sun, allowing him to triple and score on Gary Sánchez’s RBI grounder. Woof.
Texas Rangers (78-77) 6, Toronto Blue Jays (76-79) 1
The O’s aren’t the only bird that are all but shot down, either. Trade Deadline acquisition José Soriano coughed up an early homer to Josh Jung, beginning a five-inning, six-run outing that pushed Toronto three games out in the Wild Card and the Rangers into a one-game AL West lead over Houston. The only downside for Texas was that second-half surprise Cal Quantrill—who has a 1.75 ERA since re-entering the rotation in late July—left in the second with lat tightness, so old friend Jordan Montgomery picked up the slack in long relief, retiring 11 of the 12 hitters he faced with no hits allowed.
Atlanta Braves (91-64) 6, Houston Astros (77-78) 3
Houston and Texas have been wrestling all week over the prestigious “Who can win this horri-awful division with a .500-ish record” crown. Sunday it went to Texas with the Astros falling out of their tie for first place (remember that they own the tiebreaker). Isaac Paredes had put Houston ahead with a solo homer and an RBI knock in the third, but the Astros’ bullpen set that lead on fire. The big blow came off the bat of Ronald Acuña Jr., who belted a grand slam off Bryan Abreu in the seventh after AJ Blubaugh made a right mess of things.
AL Standings
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