The Broncos pulled off another come from behind win, which was amazing for Bronco fans, but terrible for our collective blood pressure. After a poor first half, in which the team was down 16, the Broncos roared back to tie the game at 16. Coming into the game the Broncos were 5-95-1 all-time when trailing by 15 or more at the half. So now the Broncos are 6-95-1.
The generally accepted definition of a fourth quarter comeback (4QC) is when a QB leads a scoring drive in the fourth quarter with the team
trailing by one score to either take the lead or tie AND the team goes on to win or tie the game. I did not realize until doing the research for this article that it didn’t count as a 4QC if the team ended up losing the game. I distinctly remember a game from 1993 when John Elway and the Broncos faced Joe Montana and the Chiefs. The Broncos were down 24-21 in the 4th until Elway led a TD drive to take a 28-24 lead. Montana then led the Chiefs on a game-winning drive in the final seconds to steal a 31-28 victory.
John Elway started 231 regular season games in his career and had 31 4QC and 40 GWD (game winning drives). Tom Brady is the career leader in both categories with 46 and 58, but he didn’t get them very often. This is due to the nature of both stats. If you play for a team with a good defense and a good offense, you are not going to have many chances to lead a 4QC or a GWD. Among Hall of Fame or future HoF QBs, Johnny Unitas has the highest rate of 4QC/GS at 0.186. Brady is at 0.138 which is 8th. If you sort by GWD/GS like my tweet below, Ben Roethlisberger is #1 among HoF (or soon to be HoF) QBs with a rate of 0.215. Tom Brady is 9th. Peyton Manning is 3rd.
Bo Nix has been getting 4QC and GWD at a rate that is astounding and the 2nd best in history for a QB with 20 or more GS. Nix has essentially been leading one GWD every three starts – 32.4 percent of the time. Andrew Luck finished his career at 23.3. Big Ben finished at 21.5. Josh Allen is at 20.8. Matthew Stafford is at 20.7. Peyton Manning is second among current HoF QBs at 20.4. Game winning drives are defined as drives in the 4th quarter or OT that put the team in the lead for good. Future HoFer, Aaron Rodgers, is 125th all time at 14.6 percent. Outside of Vince Young and Bo Nix, most casual fans would not recognize any of the other names in the top 10 below. Maybe they would with Doug Williams since he led Washington to a Super Bowl victory in a game that has been erased from my memory – someone told me they played Denver.
Patrick Mahomes is 41st on this list, which, to some, would invalidate this analysis, but it’s more a factor of the vagary of both of these stats. If your team is too bad or too good, you won’t have the opportunity for either. Bo Nix has been in a perfect situation where he can do this and he has been given a multitude of chances to do so in his first two plus seasons as a starter in the NFL. He already has as many GWD as former Bronco, Brian Griese, had in 83 GS. Bo Nix has 37.
The hope is that the Bronco offense improves to the point where the Broncos get leads early like the mid-90s Broncos used to, and then hold that lead for the rest of the game. Like Nix, Caleb Williams has also been put in plenty of situations where he needed to lead a 4QC during his young career. He has eight 4QC in 36 GS, which is second to Nix, but interestingly, tied with Kenny Pickett at 0.222. Nix is at 0.270.
Among the other big 6, Jayden Daniels is at 0.154 for 4QC and the same for GWD. JJ McCarthy is at 0.100 for both. Drake Maye is at 0.031 and 0.063. Michael Penix has zero of both in 13 career starts. Among active QBs with 30 or more starts, Drake Maye and CJ Stroud have the lowest 4QC percentage at 3.1 and 4.1 percent.
I’m not sure how many opportunities these QBs have had for 4QC or GWD, but here are the worst at both among starters with 30 or more GS.
What’s unreal is the draft position of those QBs. With the exception of Brissett and Purdy, they are all first round picks and only Mac Jones was late first round. If you just look at passing in the 4th quarter when trailing by one score 2024-2026, Jayden Daniels has the best passer rating at 125.6 and Bo Nix is good, but not great. JJ McCarthy did not have enough throws in these situations to qualify (min 20 throws). He only has 16.
I was surprised to see how bad Patrick Mahomes has been in the 4th quarter when trailing by 8 or fewer points over the last two plus seasons. Keeping company with Cam Ward and Anthony Richardson is not good (for the Chiefs).
