Adding players at this point in the season is done without any real hope of a game changer being added. At best, a team is hoping to add lightning in a bottle on a player that might have a specific need they have to have filled. That’s why we saw Tim Mayza added to the roster: the need for another left handed reliever in the bullpen thanks to Jose Alvarado not being able to suit up in October.
Adding Walker Buehler is a dart throw. Putting him into the rotation to help the group as a whole get an
extra day’s rest as they enter that six-man rotation is the main purpose for bringing him aboard. They don’t feel like Andrew Painter is the best option to help do that, plus, Buehler does have that postseason experience factor in his blood that teams love to bring into the clubhouse. He hasn’t had a season he would like to be remembered for, but when discussing what he can offer, Dave Dombrowski mentioned they saw a few things.
“This year hasn’t been as good for him as some other years, but we still like a lot of his stuff,” Dombrowski said. “We think we see some things that can hopefully help him. He’s willing to work with us.”
So what are those things they see?
Without the benefit of seeing their proprietary data, we can glean a few things from what we have in public. The first thing is that his fastball has been quite bad. The Buehler we remember is the one that was so dependent on his fastball and for good reason.
He used it so much in his early career because, by Stuff+, it was an excellent pitch. A 131 Stuff+ on his four seam fastball in 2020, followed by a 111, shows a pitch that was getting the better of hitters. However, since 2022, it has been a steady downhill plunge for that number, going from 95 to 97 to 92 for this season. It’s drop in effectiveness meant it was being used less, something good teams identify and incorporate into a pitching plan. The Dodgers and Red Sox would qualify as those teams.
This year, we see a big uptick in his usage of the slider, coupled with his using a sweeper and changeup more often compared to last year once he returned from Tommy John surgery. For his slider, that’s not necessarily a bad idea (111 Stuff+), but everything else in his arsenal, save the knucklecurve, has been a below average pitch. Seeing him throw his slider 15% of the time is good, but maybe the plan is for him to lean into even more. We’re in the age now where “establishing your fastball” isn’t as hard and fast a plan. Instead, teams (at least, the smart ones) know that the best way for a pitcher to show success is to throw your best pitch more often. Right now, at least according to the numbers, that Buehler’s slider.
If there is anything they could try with his heaters, he’ll have to make an adjustment with how often he uses them. There is the chance that they see how bad the four seam is (.663 xSLG!!!) and have him lean more into the sinker, the better of the two. Using a sinker more often than the four seam and possibly upping the amount of time he throws a slider, maybe the team thinks he can get through a lineup at least twice before handing the ball over to the bullpen.
Again, this is a dart throw. They’ve deemed Painter not ready, so they’re giving the ball to someone who they think is. It’ll be interesting to see how the coaching staff works with him.
