The Miami Hurricanes (8-0) are headed to South Bend, IN on Saturday, November 7th to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) at 7:30pm on NBC/Peacock. This is the ND offense preview for the week.
The ‘Canes are 5th overall in SP+ while ND is 3rd. The Irish kicking game is 17th while UM’s is ranked 19th. Per ESPN, ND has a 61.3% win expectancy as 4.5 point favorites at home.
The Doppler
The Irish are 3rd in FBS in scoring offense putting up 40.4 PPG which is 2nd to only Miami and North Texas. The ND offense is 2nd in SP+
offense behind only the Miami Hurricanes.
The high scoring Irish offense will be up against Miami’s defense which is 23rd now in SP+ after the UNC game. The ‘Canes are 25th in scoring allowed while giving up 19.3 PPG.
The Irish are 36th in FBS in 3rd down conversion offense, picking up the 1st 43% of the time. On 4th down ND is 16th in FBS picking up the 1st 74% of the time.
Miami’s 3rd down defense is 95th in FBS allowing opponents to move the sticks 42% of the time.
ND’s turnover margin per game is 3rd in FBS at +1.8 while Miami is 9th at +1.0 TOMPG.
The Film
For obvious reasons I’m looking at ND’s lone loss to BYU and their win over UNC. ND lost to BYU 28-24 and beat UNC 37-26.
ND OFFENSE VS. UNC
Against UNC the Irish offense finished 7-of-16 on money downs with zero turnovers. CJ Carr averaged 8.1 yards per pass attempt with five total TD’s against the Tar Heels.
The Irish averaged 5.4 yards per carry while Jordan Faison caught two TD’s on 16.5 yards per catch.
UNC finished with zero sacks, two TFL’s and five PBU’s versus the Irish offense.
Above- Splitting two lost safeties with a deep post… gives me some nervous vibes here re the ND receivers and CJ Carr carving up the Miami safety room with a deep shot.
Above- More abuse on safety types with a slot fade. One of my favorite passing concepts. If he’s even, he’s leavin’ and he’ll head to the front pylon here.
Above- ND ran a little wide zone, the RB bounces this one outside and takes advantage of the UNC DB’s in the open field. Miami is really struggling in the open field without Keionte Scott.
Above- UNC gets caught here with both DB’s to that side being aggressive and playing down on the short throw. Miami is more likely to have both on the deep shot and no one short. I don’t see this being as much of an issue with the ‘Canes in country cover 3.
Above- The check down to the RB’s in the middle of the field is a Miami weakness. Toure and Smith need to play tighter coverage and rally to help each other at the ball.
Above- Keep CJ Carr inside. Here UNC plays an outside contain on QB sweep and it forces Carr inside for a loss. Staying on that outside hip is key.
Above- ND can fight for the tough yards. Here they pick up 4th and 2 on the inside and in a me vs you rep ND’s RB wins.
Above- An explosive TFL from an edge guy squeeze and chasing from the back side? I like Marquise Lightfoot here for this type of havoc play. Let him chase this down and not drop into the flats, please.
Above- The UNC player has to fight to get outside of CJ Carr’s right hip. If he can get out there he can box the Q back to his help. Instead Carr gets outside and scrambles for a TD. He can and will run vs. Miami’s slow LB’s.
Above- An open field shot with the sideline there for help… and it’s missed? Looks really familiar to me from the Miami defense. Miami has to clean up open field angles and tackling vs. ND.
ND OFFENSE VS. BYU
Against BYU the Irish offense finished 12-of-23 on money downs with one turnover. Carr averaged only 5.3 yards per attempt with zero TD’s and a lost fumble.
The Cougars didn’t sack Carr but picked up three TFL’s and seven PBU’s. Jaden Greathouse led the way for ND with 15.6 yards per catch while the rushing attack was held to 3.8 yards per carry but had two scores.
Above- James is going to be a tough one to take down. He had BYU lunging all over the place as he juked and cut for 4.8 yards per carry vs. a top-25 SP+ defense.
Above- How do you blow up counter? BYU doesn’t wrong arm it but they do control the edge, they also get interior penetration. This is a MUST HAVE game from Moten and Scott at DT.
Above- Even in blanket coverage ND has been getting work from Faison, Greathouse and Bettis Jr. on the outside to name a few. That’s hardly Miami’s flaccid zone.
Above- James with another shifty carry. He’s a one-cut-and-go back like Mallory.
Above- The ND OL dominated BYU’s front 6 here and gave the back two ways to go in the red zone. He used his eyes, saw where the safety wasn’t, and scored.
Above- CJ Carr has aded the dreaded back shoulder throw to his repertoire and the ND WR’s can get a little fyzical. That’s not great, Bob, for a CB crew that looks baby dookie soft.
Above- Carr has always been a solid scrambler, he’s really improved at that skill this season. He scrambled around to find a wide open target here and Miami can’t let WR’s get behind them on scramble drill plays.
Above- This is where Smith and Toure should excel, except teams have baited them inside and thrown some RPO’s that have them stick. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. It’s why a lot of LB coaches are now using a squat technique where the LB doesn’t take 2-read steps forward, instead he hits a quick baby squat to force the run on 2nd level RPO’s.
Above- Hetherman has cut Toure off at what he does best- run blitz. Where are those TFL run throughs from a year ago? Get the AARPLB out of pass drops and let him blitz.
Above- Pretty crazy not to call DPI on this slot fade but ND did get away with the throw-by on the back shoulder throw earlier. Just a tough call (also this was another clock disaster, right?) for the win.
The Wrap
The Canyonero Keys to Victory main theme from the summer was that Miami needs to win bully ball vs. Notre Dame. I’m not so sure if that’s true now after the season has unfolded the way it has. Miami may now have to win a shoot out vs. ND and CJ Carr. The ‘Canes pass defense is horrendous and ND clearly saw the UNC game on film and will try to attack the outside with WR’s vs Safeties and the inside with TE’s deep up the seam.
Miami needs to improve their tackling, and coverage when it comes to the safety position. The LB’s are a lost cause in space. Miami will continue to see screens, seams, digs, and outs until the CB’s prove they’ll tackle, and the LB/S prove they’ll cover.
We’ll get to the individual keys in the ND Defense preview that’s out Friday at 8am.
